$250 NL MTT – 14K up top
9 handed 3k/6k/1k, Day 2
I have 93k
35 left/31 cash. I’ve fired 2 bullets.

Have been angsting over this hand and am looking for input on all parts of this hand – sizing, pre, post. Hoping I’m being results oriented, but I think I may have f’ed this hand up.

I've been hovering around 100K the entire day. I've opened twice on this table in 1 hour and change - I scooped one without a flop and one the villian 3bet my cbet and I folded.
One guy utilizing his stack by opening a bunch (about 4 times an orbit) when we were 7 handed with stack of 300K+ but has slowed down with new players recently added to the table about 20 minutes ago to make us 9 handed. Entire table now playing tight as we approach the bubble. This hand happened about 10 minutes after we added two players, both who have over 300K. 1 person over 400K, 3 people over 300K, 2 people with 200K, I have 93k, and the two shorter stacks of 55 and 65k. Two shorties – 55k two to my left and 65k directly to my right. They are playing a very tight push fold strategy from every position. Guy on my left is the table chip leader, 2 hands ago he went over 400K. Villain just dropped down to about 260K when he lost and all-in to double a shorter stack up. Tight, good experienced player.

Hand:
Hero (MP): As 10d - raise to 15K (I think too big. Also, I’m thinking maybe I should have just folded because I was planning on probably folding to a raise from a big stack). Just seemed worth a shot with the table dynamics, close to the bubble play.

Villain (button): calls
Everyone else folds.

FLOP: Ac 8c 2h (48k)
Hero: bet 25k (smaller again? I seriously thought about checking because this guy’s range was relatively tight and I could be way ahead or way behind. In the end, I thought I had to go with the hand and didn’t want to give a free card in case he had a flush draw).
Villain: thought for about 30 seconds and called.

TURN: Kh (98K)
Hero: ALL-in (hoped if he had me outkicked, maybe the K would give me a shot for a fold, although probably not.

Thanks for reading. Thoughts?

15 bigs, even if a push/fold chart says push from MP (it's very close), I think it's a pretty easy fold pre with the ICM implications, particularly in a live tourney.

As played, a bit smaller on the flop, yes. Once he calls I don't think you really have a choice but to shove the turn anyway though cause you're committed already. If you got outkicked, that sucks. It happens. I wouldn't lose sleep over it. Unfortunately, you're really only beating A9/A7/A6/A5/A4 and a few combo draw hands.

I think based on ICM implications and with 2 shorter stacks at the table, I would do a quick table check between hands to see how many other short stacks are left at this stage of the event. Knowing where you stand makes a huge difference in whether you play this hand.

As far as the hand, I think the biggest mistake is the PF raise. With 15bb, this hand is a prime candidate for shove or fold poker, as once you get a caller, your SPR is ~2 and it's going in with TP or better. Against a shove, he's still calling you with any hand you are behind, but he's probably letting go of hands like A8, 22, A2s pre that you are now destroyed by. PF he probably calls 88+/AJ+ if you shove, which again, all beat you here anyway, so no difference.

The flop sizing really doesn't matter unless you are willing to B/F. Once you make any flop bet, you just aren't folding here. Your options are x/f or B/R, and for the reasons I described above, you trapped yourself at this point.

Think pre is ok if the intent is to fold to a shove. I don't necessarily mind have a few bet/fold hands here at the bottom of my range - even at this stack depth - if we want to also bet/gii with premiums. I also think folding or shoving are both reasonable as well.

As played at this SPR there really is no turning back, when button doesn't 3b the likelihood of a better A goes down significantly. (we'd expect AK and AQ to mostly 3-bet here) Basically we want to bet a size on the flop that allows us to jam turn and possibly get calls from flush draws and some worse Ax.

I table checked about 10 minutes before this hand and there were 5 others with stacks from 40 - 100k. That's why I'm so pissed at myself for bubbling. I do think you can make a case for min-raise here with the table dynamics and fold to a shove, leaving me with a workable 13 bigs if I get shoved on and need to fold. Everything else you mentioned I totally agree with. I really thought the hand would be easy to play and I was wrong. Fold to re-shove, probably pick up the blinds, play for stacks if I spike an Ace. What I stupidly didn't account for is the calling ranges of flatters at this stage. In this case the guy flopped a set of 8's but this easily could have been an A10 vs AJ bust. I should have waited for a better hand or situation....hopefully I learned my lesson. thanks for your time and response.

Preflop: It's fine to have a raising range. It does suck when you get shoved on, but it does give you some opportunity to pickup blinds. I am fine with your raise size.

Flop: A little big. You can also check to induce here. Try and play a smaller pot.

Turn: There really isn't anyway to avoid getting it in here. Yes the villain may have AJ/AQ some % of the time, but they may also be on a flush draw, they may have a weak Ace, or an 8 a decided to peel a card. They probably won't fold AJ/AQ btw. You now have 53K behind and there is 98K in the pot.

As everyone said it is not always wrong to have a min raise opening range pre on 15bb. We all agree but thing is, if you shove pre in early pos with your stack size and if V is pretty nitty, he ll probably fold all of his pp (22-88 dont know abt 99s).
But at the same time, with that many players still to act behind you + being on the bubble, (and because you seem pretty tortured with the outcome) deviating from GTO in some precise spots is an option.
Shoving is probably the right +EV play (would have to check numbers tho), min raise fold to a shove is acceptable but probably too exploitable (and imho your sizing is a bit too big pre) therefore i would lean toward folding pre and capitalize on the errors weaker oppos are going to make on the bubble. If bubbling is so annoying for your mind, just fold and wait calmly for thé bubble to burst.
Now, on to the next one.
GG gl

Envoyé de mon SM-A510F en utilisant Tapatalk

shove pre, otherwise minraise/decide