Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Mid-High Stakes MTT Discussion and analysis of mid-high stakes MTT strategy

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 05-07-2017, 07:50 PM   #1
halperin
adept
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 929
On the Bubble 3 barrel semi bluff, rivered nuts, check or bet?

7 handed on the bubble

UTG

Blinds 1k/2k
UTG Hero(75k) A7ss raise to 5k

CO calls(72k)

Flop K45dds

I cbet 2/3 he calls

Turn 8s, i bet 1/2 he calls

River 3s, I river nut flush, do you bet or check?

fold pre?


he raises i assume all sets 2 pairs and straights, not much value in betting river is there?
halperin is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-08-2017, 09:41 AM   #2
Black Thought
grinder
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: Bovada crusher. Top 1% GPI
Posts: 465
Re: On the Bubble 3 barrel semi bluff, rivered nuts, check or bet?

shove when u miss flush since u cover him on bubble. Check when you hit flush
Black Thought is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-08-2017, 09:46 AM   #3
halperin
adept
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 929
Re: On the Bubble 3 barrel semi bluff, rivered nuts, check or bet?

to let him bet what exactly?
halperin is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-08-2017, 09:56 AM   #4
Black Thought
grinder
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Location: Bovada crusher. Top 1% GPI
Posts: 465
Re: On the Bubble 3 barrel semi bluff, rivered nuts, check or bet?

i think the main question is what can he call you with on bubble for his tourney life that he wouldn't bet himself if checked to

If your numbers are correct, effective stack to pot ratio is <0.6, he has 40k left and a pot of ~67k. Outside of his own flush draws, I don't see a hand strong enough to call off for his life, that he couldn't shove turn with. So probability of him value trapping himself or bluffing should be higher than him calling off here on bubble (betting less than 2/3 pot here on river seems SOOO strong here, given u cover him, that I just don't see him calling)
Black Thought is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-08-2017, 12:07 PM   #5
halperin
adept
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 929
Re: On the Bubble 3 barrel semi bluff, rivered nuts, check or bet?

yeah he calls infrequently. most often with KQ KJ if he has those. maybe he talks himself into a hero call with mid pair. but i believe even less likely is that he turns his 1 pair into a bluff here when any pair has good showdown value here. and there are really no draws that missed. cept diamonds which he likely would have raised at some point or just folded on the turn if he is that concerned with bubbling.

i think his range is mostly all 1 pair hands here. none of those 1 pair hands are going to bet if checked to. however there is a chance that some of them will call a river bet.
halperin is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-08-2017, 01:42 PM   #6
Minatorr
old hand
 
Join Date: Oct 2016
Posts: 1,849
Re: On the Bubble 3 barrel semi bluff, rivered nuts, check or bet?

Shove
Minatorr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-11-2017, 08:57 PM   #7
Beachman42
Pooh-Bah
 
Beachman42's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: Havana Daydreamin'
Posts: 3,845
Re: On the Bubble 3 barrel semi bluff, rivered nuts, check or bet?

Quote:
Originally Posted by halperin View Post
i think his range is mostly all 1 pair hands here. none of those 1 pair hands are going to bet if checked to. however there is a chance that some of them will call a river bet.
If your read is he never bets when checked to, then bet. You have absolutely nothing to lose.

If he folds, don't show. If it goes ck/ck, you will have to show. There is some (thin) utility in not letting the rest of the table see how you played your lucky hand.
Beachman42 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-11-2017, 09:07 PM   #8
watevs
Pooh-Bah
 
watevs's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: watching my tammates get bussed
Posts: 3,947
Re: On the Bubble 3 barrel semi bluff, rivered nuts, check or bet?

I think you've pretty much nailed his range

Just make some small to medium bet that he can't help but look up

I like that more than shoving as his range is weak and it at least gives him a chance to bluffraise
watevs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-12-2017, 09:40 AM   #9
RalphWaldoEmerson
Pooh-Bah
 
RalphWaldoEmerson's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2014
Location: check my plo thread
Posts: 4,375
Re: On the Bubble 3 barrel semi bluff, rivered nuts, check or bet?

Quote:
Originally Posted by watevs View Post
his range is weak
lol, no
RalphWaldoEmerson is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-14-2017, 05:32 PM   #10
DuckU
adept
 
DuckU's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Tracktown USA
Posts: 1,053
Re: On the Bubble 3 barrel semi bluff, rivered nuts, check or bet?

Quote:
Originally Posted by watevs View Post
I think you've pretty much nailed his range

Just make some small to medium bet that he can't help but look up

I like that more than shoving as his range is weak and it at least gives him a chance to bluffraise
+1 I'd bet between 35% to 60% of pot. Agree that villain most likely has Kx,
DuckU is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-15-2017, 12:22 AM   #11
Blurredelevens
enthusiast
 
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 58
Re: On the Bubble 3 barrel semi bluff, rivered nuts, check or bet?

If he calls 1/2 on turn, he doesn't like his hand but can't put it down. Value town a smaller bet.....that's all you'll get.
Blurredelevens is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-15-2017, 02:10 AM   #12
lolposting2016
adept
 
Join Date: Aug 2016
Posts: 926
Re: On the Bubble 3 barrel semi bluff, rivered nuts, check or bet?

Lol that's the ticket. Make the nuts and bet small
lolposting2016 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-15-2017, 10:07 PM   #13
Blurredelevens
enthusiast
 
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 58
Re: On the Bubble 3 barrel semi bluff, rivered nuts, check or bet?

Quote:
Originally Posted by lolposting2016 View Post
Lol that's the ticket. Make the nuts and bet small
Or shove and not pick up anything. GTO, right? LoLz
Blurredelevens is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-15-2017, 10:50 PM   #14
cicakman
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
cicakman's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 9,026
Re: On the Bubble 3 barrel semi bluff, rivered nuts, check or bet?

on the river pot is like 70k and you guys have about 40k left? easy shove here with the backdoor flush
cicakman is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 05:15 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2010, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online