Still early on in my play, so no reads. What is my game plan on this turn?



[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $40 Buy-in (50/100 blinds, 15 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37929038

MP1: 2,737 (27.4 bb)
MP2: 4,492 (44.9 bb)
MP3: 9,746 (97.5 bb)
CO: 5,000 (50 bb)
BTN: 4,557 (45.6 bb)
SB: 9,978 (99.8 bb)
BB: 4,568 (45.7 bb)
Hero (UTG+1): 6,792 (67.9 bb)
UTG+2: 5,145 (51.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K A
Hero raises to 222, UTG+2 calls 222, 6 folds, BB calls 122

Flop: (851) 9 K 7 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 666, UTG+2 calls 666, BB folds

Turn: (2,183) Q (2 players)

with the stacks so deep like this, I like to make it 3x pre early on in the piece, charge your opponents for the privilege of sucking out on you.

flop sizing seems a little large, I see what your doing tho trying to charge draws a premium on a wet board. The prob with this tho is pot control goes out the window, when hes often never folding a draw or a better made hand anyway.

Agree turn is proly the worst card for you but it doesn't mean he has to have KQ,JT or hearts everytime, there are still hands in his range that you beat like KJ,KT,TT or 9x.

If we made flop small say 400, we could have potenially fired a small b/f on this turn say 600, which would be only 300 extra from our initial flop investment. We would make this bet with the intention to check and fold to any further action otr.

Otherwise the only other alternative I can see ott is just x/f which is proly fine too

larger open pre

flop 50-60% i think its fine

as played turn altough i really hate it - x/f except vs very small sizings

Interesting spot! Would love to hear more responses to that one.
I like raising 2.5x to 3.0x preflop at this stack depth as a standard. I tend to raise smaller the earlier the position, with any hands I open.

On the flop, I like betting, but smaller. On this kind of board, my standard would be close to 55-65% two-way, but slightly smaller 3-way.

Turn I think I check, but with the intention of calling <60% bets. Is this station-y?
Another good question is: if turn goes check-check, what are our actions on river depending on river card?

Do you really think KJ, KT, or even 9x is in this guys range.
He called an utg raise as UTG + 2. IMOP we would have to have
reads that he's a loose player to have some of these hands.
TT, JJ maybe

c/f obviously, what else?
we showdown sometimes vs KJs and rare AhQx.

with the stacks so deep I would def include KJs,KTs maybe less 9x but its bounty builder so not impossible, JJ proly 3b

+1 for smaller flop bet go with like 60% of pot here, then check/decide on the turn and hope we can get to showdown vs KJs,1010 type hands

Ok, I can't understand how standard play here can be check/fold...

So you flop TPTK, bet strong on flop and check/fold against one player on turn?? If we're doing this we'll going to be extremely exploitable.

I know that card is not good, but if we check he can bet a huge part of his range (Ax... Kx... Q..., , even his failed straight draws, specially containing any heart (86, J8...), so imo we can't fold this 2,1k pot (plus villain bet) with TPTK.

Now, if we play check/call, we reevaluate on river. If another heart comes, we'll holding a bluff catcher, maybe nothing but A or bluffs bets if we check. And if doesn't come, we'll be able to check/call a 1/2 pot maximum bet.

That's not a very good scenario. So, if I don't want to check/fold, and call doesn't like me pretty much... I'd find another way to play.

I think the point is on flop. Wet flop, two opponents, tptk... lot of reasons to protect our hand, and that's what Hero did, bet so large. Ok, maybe this is not the best play, I think everybody here agree with a slightly smaller flop bet...

But, what if we go for a check/raise here? Yeah, there's only one player to act, and if we check a freecard will come a lot of times. That's our risk. But, on the other hand:

-We can earn more money when that player bets. We check/raise and wins the pot right here.

-We clarify the hand. If he calls we can be quite sure that if villains bets turn or river (specially if a draw is completed) we'll be beaten a lot of times. That doesn't occur with our standard bet flop. Villains bet range when Q comes and we check still contains a lot of hands we beat.

-And, of course, if we plan to check/fold sometimes when comes on turn, I think it's not so bad idea to take the risk of give freecard sometimes.

Another alternative line:

check/push turn. Very difficult for villain to call with nothing but flush, nut-flush draw or JT with heart. Sets can call too, but if he holds set, it's logical to think that he reraises our flop bet, at this board, when there's another player left to act. Sometimes he can fold his KQ, Q9, and sometimes he can call with AQ... A9... A7...


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Ok, I know this alternative lines can be risky, can be wrong... But I'm sure that as played we can't check/fold turn, imo we'll be losing a lot of money with that play.

whats calling range of the villian otf ? sets, Kx and flush draws. ott he will bet sets and flushes and check Kx. we dont block any flush or anything so only thing we can do is check turn and hope for a check back.

we cant win every hand friend, sometimes next street changes board texture so dramaticly that we cant do anything.

This is, imo, villain range when Q comes on turn. I put some weight stuff on sets, because I think villain reraises them so much times on flop, at this board, with one player left to act. On the other hand, I included JTo (str8 on turn), which is not quite common coldcall preflop on UTG+2, and needs to call flop with only gutshot+backdoor fd.

https://imgur.com/a/oZ4Cy

And this is our equity (39.1%) vs that range:

https://imgur.com/a/OgeuP

Plus, this range doesn't include random preflop hands and random calls on flop, which must be included if we have no reads on villain.

Now, we can discuss about what part of this range he bets when we check:

I don't think he always checks behind Kx. First, because he can bet for value when holds K with x, and second because he can bet for protection when holds Kx no-heart.

It's very difficult to create a range when he bets, because there are so many draws completed and uncompleted.. so many hands with pair and draw... And with no reads is very risky to put him on a bet range here.

That's why I prefer the safe side and count on my equity vs his global range here. And with it, I can't check/fold. Even though I agree with you we can't win every hand, and with Q is maybe the worst card.

Playing 3-way this turn I can surrender more often.

ye dat flatting range is waaaaaaay off, his range is much tighter than that. JTo T8s, i mean come on dude.

also he will be more inclined to call with his sets due to 3rd player in game, why would he wanna kick him out of the pot with raising?

Yeah, probably he wants to only call flop sometimes with sets. I put 25% of the time.
Maybe is more than that.

JTo is, like I said, a not common hand. But this hand makes str8 on turn, if I eliminate it from his range, we're in a very better position on turn...

Ok, I'm gonna eliminate JTo, T8s and 86s.
And put 75% weight on sets.

This is his range now:

https://imgur.com/a/EY3FV

And this is our new equity (38%) on turn...

https://imgur.com/a/SQLaD

We had lost only 1.1% equity comparing with older range. I think we can still can't check/fold here.

I agree w nomalice on his PF range being tighter than you think, there really aren't any value hands you can beat on the turn if he bets. You have to realize that this hand is UTG vs UTG+1 which means the ranges should be extremely tight. How can he even have 86s or J8s if he is a reasonable/standard player? Good players generally lay those hands down to an utg raise when they are 2nd to act w the entire table behind them. If I have 86s I know I'm def not flatting an utg open, maybe if it's a loose player it is in their 3b bluffing range but this player flatted. To me that means they have a reasonably strong PF range, and I've even seen good players who flat monsters in this sort of spot for deception and to invite a squeeze play from behind them in order to go for a 4b.

I'd say their range here definitely includes hands such as 99s, 77s, maybe even KKs (although we block this), AK, KQs, AA (we block), QQs, JJs, 10s, 88s, maybe some J10s. Most of those hands are now either beating us or chopping.

Although if V did flop a set they might be more inclined to raise flop because of how wet this board is, tons of gutshots, oesd and flush draws available and seems like a good spot to raise w a nutted hand. I know if I flop a set on a board like this in position I'm probably raising against a bet both for protection and value, as well as to balance my play when I want to bluff raise w my semi bluffs. So I disagree w nomalice when he says villians are going to be flatting sets a lot here. Maybe my approach to these sort of spots is off/non standard though?

Really gross turn card and as played I just check and evaluate the turn. If V bets small I'm probably calling and playing a river, but if he goes large I'm probably sigh folding. Hard to play spots like this without any sort of a read, and definitely a situation where you want to know how the villain plays and have some stats on them. Against looser bluffier opponents I'm probably not laying it down to one bet even on a flush/straight board.

Definitely a tough spot though and I'm curious what other people think.

As for your sizing I see what you're going for on the flop in terms of a protection/value bet, but I think you're going too big esp if you are only betting that size when you have it. I'd rather just bet like 45-60% pot which will still give V the wrong direct odds to call w a draw but will also give you a better price w your bluffs, control the size of the pot a little bit while still allowing you to protect. The pot gets awkward OOP because of how bloated it got and is part of the reason the spot is so tough.

Your preflop sizing seems fine and I don't see an issue with it, 2.2x is fairly standard, although some people I've talked to think 2.5 is best. I think 3x is overkill and is going to fold out dominated hands that you want in there that might call a 2.2 or 2.5x raise. I almost always just use 2.25x if I'm not in push fold mode, unless I have a player specific read where I want to go for a min raise or size up a little bit.

This range you say here is much better for us...
This is the range you're talking about, much tighter (and I also included nutflushes like AT, AJ and AQ (which is worst for us), and put some weight (25%, because he reraises flop most times) on sets, (35%) on KK (because he reraises preflop most times) and on JTs (35%) because he folds preflop in this tight range most of the time.

Range: QQ-TT,88,AKo,AKs-ATs,KQs,[25]99,77[/25],[35]KK,JTs[/35]:a2c3a164:a4b1a3b1a3b1a3:b1a15:a1b4a3b1a3b1a3

https://imgur.com/a/nNAae


Ok, against this tighter range... we're still ahead (50,6%)!!!

https://imgur.com/a/iL1xW

Forgive me for insisting, but I really believe that we are facing a situation in which reality is very counterintuitive. Mathematics tells us that our hand here can not be folded, unless first impression is "he always has us beaten"...

we are ahead but u re forgetting that he WONT BET all of those hands. most of the time he will bet only those hands that have us crushed. So us being ahead of his whole range is reason why I opt in for check, and if he checks the turn we're good in most of the cases

I remember a thread in the past (although it was 2 years ago) where experienced players saw it as a fundamental flaw for villain if villain doesn't bet this turn with a part of his range that we beat in a very similar situation.

I liked what I read. What I take from it is that we are too high in our range to just check fold to any bet here, but we can't call a big turn bet because we are behind a betting range a majority of the time.

Bonus question: Are we capping our range when we check here or can we have made flushes that check to "trap"?

Ohm, I don't think we have so much flushes here... That's because K and Q are on board, and these are the most common cards in our utg or range after A.

Plus, at this flop, against utg+1 and another player, we're going to check our Ax so many times. And, when we bet them, maybe our sizing will be lower than this 4/5 pot bet we made here.

And no-nutflush, something like JT, needs to bet this turn. also isn't common in utg or range.


So, if we check, I think most times best hand we have is AKx, which calls almost always when check. Maybe AQx calls too. The rest of the range tends to fold a lot of times when check (obviously I think we have to bet our sets and double pairs here).

That's why any competent villain has to bet almost his entire range, with this turn card, when we check. And that's why I think we can't fold our tptk here.

+1

Not a kind of playout i would wan to see with ur ako suits.

The flop and turn have destroyed all equity and demote it to a bluff catch hand. I would say at flop should slow down and check it.

There are too many hands that help villian range. His call on ur strong bets tells a lot. I guess is villian is reevalutating on the turn based on ur actions since he have position over u.

Thx

AK is really not that high in our range ott. I like checking this turn a lot, I just dont see a hand that we're inclined to bet except good flushes,we gotta pot control somewhere, checking the flop is also pbb fine. vs randoms im fine being exploitable here. It really bothers me to go in depth here but many things said itt are pretty weak imo with no disrespect to anyone.

game changed a lot in the last 2 years