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Bluffing with the Ah BTN v BB (0 live satellite to ME) Bluffing with the Ah BTN v BB (0 live satellite to ME)

01-11-2019 , 08:11 PM
Still in re-entry period, 300/600/50
10 seat guarantee to $10K ME
Folded to Hero (18K from 20K starting stack) raises to 1500 Ah3c
SB folds, BB calls.
BB (20s male) appears tight weak rec.
Hero has been in everything, aggressive, would have had a bucketload of chips if either of two fd's had got there. V has folded to two small c-bets in the only hands we contested heads up.

Flop JhTc3s
check-check
Turn 7h
V leads 1300
Hero calls
River Th
V leads 3500 and has 12K remaining
Hero jams 15K
V folds

Folding turn is clearly an option also.
Is the jam here otr +EV against described tight weak opponent?
Am I credibly repping enough Tx hh boat hands to make even a good V fold this spot?
Bluffing with the Ah BTN v BB (0 live satellite to ME) Quote
01-14-2019 , 05:26 AM
Ppl really hate bluffs I guess
Bluffing with the Ah BTN v BB (0 live satellite to ME) Quote
01-14-2019 , 11:42 AM
I like bluffs!

And I like this one against a described weak-tight guy. You credibly rep Tx and flushes, also 77, and block the nuts. Some weak-tight rando is hating life w/ Jx or even 9s8s. His calling range here should be nearly nil unless he really feels like being a hero (I'm assuming he's not leading too much Tx or FDs OTT). Your image as described may be concerning but not enough for me to not wanna bluff this river.

Calling turn is ambitious but I think it's OK. Your play basically only really works as a float (and that Th OTR is like the nut bluff card) IMO. Maybe half the deck is good to start bluffing or vbetting on (hearts, Tx, overcards, a 3) but not all of those will reliably scare V off his hand or bring your hand ahead of his so I see it working for you much less often than not. But OTT you're getting a good price so it's has to work too often to be +EV, and it's not too punitive to your stack to try so it seems OK. Not great, but OK.

Last edited by jl121; 01-14-2019 at 11:52 AM.
Bluffing with the Ah BTN v BB (0 live satellite to ME) Quote
01-14-2019 , 12:07 PM
I think you are credibly repping Ax hearts and possibly 77. Its a stretch that you could have JT. I think if you had a T you would have bet flop and checked back turn. I also think with 98 you bet the flop or raise the turn. But your river shove is very polarizing. If I knew you I would probably call down with a J.

As played I would have folded the turn. But then I don't bluff enough.

Also on this flop I would cbet especially with a pair given villain's history of folding to cbets. Villain might fold 44-77. I assume with 88-99 villain would have 3-bet pre-flop.
Bluffing with the Ah BTN v BB (0 live satellite to ME) Quote
01-14-2019 , 12:59 PM
What was your reason for calling the turn? I get that you still have some SD value - did you think V was just doing a delayed C-bet?
Bluffing with the Ah BTN v BB (0 live satellite to ME) Quote
01-14-2019 , 03:14 PM
Assuming you opened the Cut-off or BU?

Just follow thru and CBet the flop to make things easier on yourself. If hes really weak tight i think at least Half of his Jx and 10x hands are folding pre that a flop bet gets the job done a lot here.

AP Looks fine but maybe a little fancy for a 30 bigs effective in a satellite. You definitely put his Jx hands in a spot that feels like an insta fold and you credibly rep 10x and full houses, you shouldnt really have many no nut flushes here as most of them are betting the flop I would think since they are either complete airballs or SD + BDFD or 3 to a straight 3 to a flush hands. How much 10x do you think he defends and is he ever folding 10x OTR AP?
Bluffing with the Ah BTN v BB (0 live satellite to ME) Quote
01-14-2019 , 04:27 PM
My issue with this is the river card helps Hero's range a ton on this action -- thus I expect the average opponent to lead river at a much lower frequency with his Jx than any other card 2-9. Obviously some players aren't aware of these range dynamics though.
The problem is if they aren't value betting these thin to medium thin hands in this spot, bluffing quickly becomes very bad, because you're basically trying to move them off an occasional Tx or a low flush.

However, V can still have Jx obviously (really depends on opponent type), and there are definitely possible bluffs for V. We also have the nut best bluff combo.
Bluffing with the Ah BTN v BB (0 live satellite to ME) Quote

      
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