Info on villain (126 hands):
Preflop raise: 10%
cbet: 40%
Is this a good spot to bluf the river or not?

PokerStars, $200 + $15 - Hold'em No Limit - 250/500 (80 ante) - 9 players

UTG: 12,892 (26 bb)
UTG+1: 11,526 (23 bb)
MP: 5,062 (10 bb)
MP+1: 7,782 (16 bb)
LP: 8,780 (18 bb)
CO: 8,088 (16 bb)
BU: 2,264 (5 bb)
SB: 13,779 (28 bb)
BB (Hero): 13,396 (27 bb)

Pre-Flop: (1,470) Hero is BB with T♦ Q♦
UTG raises to 1,140, 7 players fold, Hero calls 640

Flop: (3,250) 6♥ 6♠ 3♦ (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks

Turn: (3,250) 7♦ (2 players)
Hero bets 2,000, UTG calls 2,000

River: (7,250) 3♠ (2 players)

This is not the type of run where A-high check backs are worrying about life.

Bigger ott
River I think mixes but the only sizing is all in

Check trun , then decie on his size what to do , as you can also presaure him on his bet , even check check on trun will be good for your hand if daimond come on river even if not you can go on bluff with 2xC from utg..

Not a good spot to bluff. Firstly, what hands are you trying to represent? Your story doesn't make up even you leads the turn. Secondly, it doesn't make much sense that villain check rainbow flop and call turn with only Ace high here.

You're pretty much replying 3x, 6x, 77 if you bet big. Repping 7x if you bet smaller. I think it's ok to assume they can be in your calling range pre.

If you now make a small bluff now you're getting called by Ax a lot.
If you shove you are representing a narrow range. But on a double paired board I think you get hero called by Ax pretty often.

You'd need a shove to get through about 60% to break even. You'd need a 4k very to get through about 35% of the time to break even.

Both seem pretty close, but I think it's a fold.

As mentioned its either allin or check... He can deffo have some x backs with overpairs on that flop, so I proly wouldn't

not

WTH ru doing posting here?...i thought you were gonna go out and find (us) some rungoot?

Anyways...got to agree but it does depend on how you construct your bluffing range. If you use the "human" method and start at the bottom of your range, then QTs is too high (up in ur range.)

Assuming you shove (which makes sense on this texture/runout) ur laying utg 1.75 to 1, so we can have ~37% bluffs.

If we have 43 value combos, we can have ~26 2-barrel* bluffs:

(after) removing the diamond combos:

85s -3
95s -3
98s -3
98o -6
T8o -6
T8s -3
J5s -2

*assumes we defend BB ~40% and turn probe always has equity.

The solver solution will obv be much more complex and spread the bruffs out to include some bdfd combos (i think the sim i ran had QTdd bluffing ~20% of the time.)

Thanks all, I tried to bluff the river with a half pot sized bet. Villain called and showed AA.

Go all in and mix in 6x. Give him something to bluff-catch.

Thanks for the answer. It really didn't surprise me if he show Aces here. It doesn't make sense someone will check a rainbow flop and call turn with nothing here. It just sounds too fishy. Secondly, definitely not a good spots too bluff with so many busted draw combo here and will get called way too often. In fact, it is a good spot to over bet the pot if you have any 6x here because you can have a lot of hero call.