Blinds: 800/1600/200, 7 handed

15 left, 7 get paid. Average stack about 45K

UTG folds
UTG+1 MAWG limps (stack about 30k)
UTG+2 MAWG limps (stack about 30K)
CO (Hero) Hero, MAWG raises to 7k (from 50K) with AQo, generally playing TAG
Button folds
SB (Villain - MAWW) raises to 14K (from a stack of 28k, so leaves 14k behind)
Folds to hero.
Hero?


Had been at table for about an hour. She's had a couple of all ins when she was shorter stacked; she plays fairly loose passive, first time I've seen her 3 bet.

i'm folding

Think ace mining is fine. There's a lot out there.

Smaller on the iso, as played, prob gii

is this sarcastic or are you suggesting calling?

No sarcasm. From a purely +cev point of view, it's hard to give a realistic range where we don't make chips from simply calling vs the price we get. It feels odd though, especially with how little she'll have behind. You can model this mathmatically a program such as equilab.

This is a tough spot because you are getting great odds but are so often hopelessly behind.

There's 27200 in the pot and it costs you 7k to call her click raise. It's pretty tough to turn down a call getting 4:1 preflop. But a small raise from tight passive player is heavily weighted towards strong hands, all of which you are losing to.

Folding preflop given those odds seems criminal but you're getting better than 4:1 postflop when she shoves so it's pretty criminal to fold there too.

All that being said, it's probably best to just GII pre but I think it's very close and I don't expect to win very often. That's the rough part about fast live tournament structures - though I think the Aria $125 structure is a good one WRT to buy-in.

If we assume she does that with AA only, even getting 4-1 we don't out flop her often enough. It's just gross.

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It's interesting because I did call, and I was berating myself for doing it almost as soon as I'd done it. Flop comes out a bunch of low blanks, and she insta jams. I figured I had the odds for my overs to hit, but also figured there was a good chance that the overs were not outs, so I folded flop, and felt completely ****ty about donking off more than a quarter of my stack.

Still managed to secure second place, so it didn't kill me.

Thanks. Yeah it was all round tricky.

And +1 about the Aria tournament. My fave Vegas tournament; room is nice and I love the structure, and it's one of the few relatively cheap Vegas tournaments that I feel you get to play some poker for some reasonable length of time.