Quote:
Originally Posted by jjjou812
Eggs, question about your post above. You said you would expect real world people to be underbluffing and overvalue the river when interpreting your bet (paraphrased). Are you applying the same real world assumption to his 40k river bet? If so, how often do you expect your bluff to work?
Think we get folds from AK like at least 50% of the time and easily gonna be a whole lot more if OOP is even a little bit less stubborn and imperceptive than you're assuming.
I think the player type you're describing is pretty rare these days. Regs are not close to great, but on average I don't think they're that stubborn anymore.
Maybe against me they'd be right to start calling off a lot of AK, I'm not really great or even very good and I will not confirm or deny if they'd be correct to station down a ton of AK vs me.
Certainly you'll have guys--even regs, bad regs IMO but regs nonetheless--against whom you raise AQ and they mash the call button really quickly, feeling proud of themselves but really like 99% of the time they've given up possibly double digits of bbs of EV.
Obviously there are people who are almost always gonna fold AK there and I think that's a very reasonable thing to do without history. I mean it would only take a sample size of 1 (just one bluff by IP in a similar or identical spot--btw yes indeed the best players can make huge and profound and correct exploits just based on one sample hand so for god's sake don't show your cards people!!!!) for me as OOP to start stationing down AK vs a river raise all-in vs some players. But without any history in such spots? Boy it's really really really marginal at best and an incredible punt at worst to snap AK.
Think with the current state of the game we get AK to fold on average 65-75% of the time, somewhere around there, maybe more. Better player pools probably finding the most amounts of folds.
If we can be really really discerning with our bluff-targeting, then with regularity we'll get folds 90%-100% of the time.
I don't trust this read enough vs a rando OOP enough to make me wanna willy-nilly bluff in lieu of finding a bunch of folds, but certainly I trust it enough to make me want to expose myself to the possibility I'm facing an overfolder. Plus in reg filled games I like to think eventually they will adjust to someone raising every single river and I don't want that to happen vs me so I would not pure bluff.
Like I said, vs a rando IP raiser I'm folding 85-95% of my range here and 100% of my AK as OOP once IP finds that raise. And I don't think I'm ever gonna be exploited with that strategy except once in a blue moon.
I actually don't think the overvaluing is really that relevant but it's still something to keep in mind, and sure it hurts the EV of AQ. I think people generally realize AA,AJ have certain blocker properties OTT and OTR and should make them very very rare in OOP's range when he goes moderate sized barrel followed by moderate sized triple.
I've kept a mental tally of people's responses on this forum in similar spots (how they play top set as OOP opener) and very often people correctly identify that they make for a very slick trap or at least a smaller sized barrel.
So point is, I really don't expect much AA,AJ here from OOP and AQ has such nice blockers vs those anyway.
The blocker effects of AQ (and the blocker effects borne by the board texture mind you) on AA,AJ are much more immense than those on AK--it's just almost always gonna be AK and air here for OOP (and almost always way less air than he ought to have) even when OOP is overvalued with AA,AJ. Just combinatorically and strategically it has to be that way for OOP, and I feel pretty confident in my belief that it WILL be that way in real life. I know my value range certainly would be virtually all AK here and I would never value AJ with that 40k sizing (think 20k or a trap is better) nor would I ever really barrel the turn with AA (I would pure trap AA OTR if I had them--and I basically never have them here because I'd never really barrel moderate sizing OTT with them).
IP players are indeed finding folds with the AQ. There's not at all very much incentive to exploitatively overvalue AA,AJ. Think if you averaged the responses ITT to OP's question you'd get pretty close to the equilibrium calling frequency for AQ, which is high but is not 100%. IMO I think this represents the pop of IP players being way too stationey and spewy in this spot--after all, though it may be much easier to balance a triple barrel range compared to a "river raise all-in vs triple barrel" range, you're very unlikely to be actually facing a balanced OOP range here thus making AQ overfolding very nice in practice.
I think people will generally do a good job at valuing their AK here and not checking it. I notice at least one person saying they think AK might xc, that's a possibility and AK is a viable xc vs some players but OOP need not value all vulnerable AK for AQ to be a viable bluff (in other words, even if his potential b-f range is smaller than "all AK" it can be shown that AQ is a profitable bluff once OOP starts folding that AK more than ~50% of the time or so).
I would personally always triple my AK here, never checking river with it as OOP, because IP isn't challenging me with bluffs enough nor is he gonna float enough air when I check and I think finding that triple is way higher EV in practice. I'd still never have AA,AJ here though
Last edited by EggsMcBluffin; 05-28-2021 at 02:42 PM.
