Same Villain from 5 bet AA hand. We are about 200BB deep...Villain Opens 2 UTG+1 for 2.5x...I flat BB with AQcc

Flop Is Ad7h6h; I check call 3BB

Turn is Js. I check call 8.5 BB

River is an off suit 2. I check and face a pot sized river bet.

we probably have to call this

Yeah this is a call.

Hearts and SD missed.

Call

The PSB on the river is concerning. Does AT-A8 do that? We lose to every other reasonable Ax that opens from EP. I don't think V will have enough bluffs in his range to make it a profitable call.

I honestly don't know if I could find a fold in-game, but I am struggling to justify a call in this analysis. I think all we really have here is a bluff-catcher.

I think a key part of this hand is how aggro we think villain is from EP here. If he can have a lot of suited connector or one-gap heart hands plus 98s, then I can see merit in calling. His range should have a decent amount of bluffs and we block very few of them, other than weird stuff like QT which may not even take that line.

If we think EP is somewhat tight pre in this spot, I think folding is ok because he really wouldn't have that many flush combos, probably wouldn't play worse Ahxh this way (would certainly find a check somewhere) and may not even always have 98. I do agree that this hand is effectively a bluff catcher, so the question is how many bluffs can our opponent have and is this a spot where they bluff enough to make a call profitable.

I definitely thought 98s was in his range preflop. I guess the 2 big unknowns are:

1. Does he value bet AK here? Should he?
2. Does he find a check at some point with his heart draws that have a pair? KJ,QJ,JT suited are all in his preflop range, does he check the turn when he picks up showdown value? Or the river? Does he turn a hand like A5hh into a bluff/merge on the river?

Clearly, if he has AK in his 3 street betting range, it is a fold. Also clearly, to me, is he isn't betting a worse Ace for value.

The fact that the field is split makes me feel like the play was close, which, if that is the case, I don't feel bad about my decision, either way.

Hard to get away from that with all the draws missing, past history and maybe some kind of read off their body language giving away they might be weak. Really looks like AK though especially with the pot sized bet.

Looks like nuts or air. I'd be impressed if he can pot AK OTR, and more likely expecting 6 combos of AJ and 3 combos of JJ if he has it. Easily more than 5 combos of bluffs.

def don't want any heart...prob shouldn't want the K;Q or T of diamonds either...so this may be one of ur best Ax combos to call. A8ss;A9ss and A8cc;A9cc would prob rate at ur worst hero calls.

Yes, I thought nuts or air. For sure his sizing is polarizing. I do think he has all AJ, AA, 77, 66. 13 combos. Does he fire JJ on the flop? Say 2/3 of the time. Can he have A7s, A6s. Say 1/2 of the time. That gets us 16 value.

For bluffs: KQhh, T9hh, KThh , QThh and all 4 98s. That gets us 8. That makes him perfectly balanced from our perspective. Of course, he can't know for sure which combos we block; from his perspective he could have 9 AJ and 3 AA. The fact that we have no heart, no 9/8 are definitely 'good' for the call.

I realize that it is subtle, but there is a difference in value betting the river and potting the river. In my experience, this weights us heavily to air or having "it" where it is top2+. I personally would not bet AK on the river in this manner.

Interestingly, this actually reduces the value range without shrinking the bluff range which makes a call more correct vs. a thinking, balanced player.

Grunching: What I am taking away from the ME Day 1 both this year and last is that this is rarely a bluff.

I have been in this virtual spot twice (once each year) and the three street bets were always AK. This is slightly worse in that he can have AJ or JJ as well. In my case all three bets were larger than 1/2 pot.

With hands like AQ/KQ that hit the flop with TP/almost TK I am now thinking seriously of folding on the turn to an over 1/2 pot bet. Somewhat exploitable but only in the ME and only Day 1. Unless the player is showing a lot of raises in EP and some bluffs I believe we are in the under 10% bluffing area.