Pacific Poker - 600/1200 Ante 150 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 24.4 BB
SB: 36.66 BB
Hero (BB): 104.44 BB
UTG: 44.73 BB
UTG+1: 95.83 BB
MP: 71.87 BB
MP+1: 88.14 BB
MP+2: 32.69 BB
CO: 241.48 BB

9 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.62 BB) Hero has 9 A

fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, CO raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 1 BB

Flop: (5.62 BB, 2 players) 2 3 A
Hero checks, CO checks

Turn: (5.62 BB, 2 players) 7
Hero checks, CO checks

River: (5.62 BB, 2 players) 3
Hero bets 1.86 BB, CO raises to 3.71 BB, Hero calls 1.86 BB

CO shows 3 K (Three of a Kind, Threes)
(Pre 41%, Flop 19%, Turn 11%)
Hero mucks 9 A (Two Pair, Aces and Threes)
(Pre 60%, Flop 81%, Turn 89%)
CO wins 13.05 BB

I am not familiar with online poker... But having said that:

I would lead out the turn. If villain has a flush draw on the flop I would expect him to have bet. I'd rather not see a spade on the river and lose to a hand like JT. Or at least make villain pay for the draw if his spade is good enough.

As played I think this is a bet/fold but I would have bet about 3 bb's. The 1.86 bb's looks like a blocking bet of some kind. Which is strange because all you have to do is check/call if you want to see a showdown cheaply (which normally I would do except what can villain possibly have?)

And then there is the click it back strategy of villain on the river. Whatever that means.

Agree, I bet turn here after V showed weakness on A high flop w/ spade draw. Maybe V has AsXs, but you need to probe and get value and V might look you up with pairs smaller than A, especially if he holds a spade. Obviously, turn line has to be b/f against unknown V.

River is meh, but I think we can x/c there.

Your title inspired me to get into the thought process (of both players) in this extremely interesting spot.

The Preflop Saga.

Villain: "K3s...easy open if I steal the blinds+antes, I increase my stack by 1.08704%."

Hero: "Hmmmmm bigstack opening from CO...could be just flexing his muscles...don't love A9o...sick RIO and I'm OOP...oh well...YOLO...I call."

Flop Musings.

Villain: "Flopped middle pair...no BDs...BB can have all 2prs/sets/wheel and slowplayed AA...easy check back...wait...do I need protection?...can i just take this down right now?...wish I had time to run a sim."

Turn Conundrum.

Hero: "Should I be probing wide here?...why did i give a free card?...now it's a 3 frush and I don't have the As...goddammit anyway. Can't bet for value...could be drawing dead...not sure if I need to protect...got a bad feeling villain can have AQss; AKss."

Villain: "OK...BB checks twice...now I know I'm getting tarped...the SOB probably has A4ss;A5ss and went for the c/r 2x...not this time buddy...do you really think I amassed this huge stack by falling for tarps?"

The Conclusion.

Hero: "3d...safe river...don't think villain checks AA 2x...could at some frequency tho...AKss is still a possibility...maybe I should just check and decide...no...too passive...I read that aggression is a good thing in NLHE tournaments. Gotta bet...ok sizing...Poker Snowie goes 25% in these spots...I'm not a bot...gonna go for a bluffier-looking/polarizing sizing...I'll probe for 33%..."

Villain: "ZOMG...small sizing...BB always has it...my trips are ****...you can't bluff for this sizing you idiot...good luck balancing that River Probe...now I'm putting him on AA or air...wait...what if...what if I decide to rep the AA...? I have more combos+ I'm good enuf to have slowplayed it. Yusssss...I'm gonna go for it...should i shove?...no looks too strong...can't just 3/4x it...wonder if Pio ever min raises AA here?

(Villain yells-out for his Mom to run the sim while he tanks but she's busy with dinner...Timebank is running down)

Villain: "F-it...gonna Click-it-Back and fold to a shove...the Pop def under re-bluffs this spot, so I can easily let this go"

Hero: "Sorry pal...not buying you repping AA...obv timing-tell too lol...frush blocker's irrelevant...only can hero when I block AA now...but can't always call here since CO doesn't ALWAYS take this line with AA."

(Hero rolls his RNG)

Hero: "Hmmmm landed on Call."

Villain: "I can't believe this guy...called me with Ax no spade...I just got OWNED...he deserves the pot for that soulread...well at least he kinda went into the tank...saw right thru me turning my trips/hand I can never call with into a bruff...repping ONLY AA." He musta merged his calling ranges or something...def high-level...no more pots with this guy...VWP sir."

(Villain rushes over to Sharkscope to see how hard Hero has been CRUSHING MTTs)

Villain: "MTTs are getting tough boys...game on..."

I have a follow up questin to this post -- it's a situation I often find myself in and struggle with.

Suppose we follow my advice on turn and throw out a probe bet in a hand like this with top pair, and V flats. What's our play on the river when a (seemingly) harmless card like the 3 peels? If we bet, we are going to have to b/f, which I hate doing with sdv. If we check, do we bluff catch, or x/f, or do we make a sizing read?

thanks man! your analysis helped! To give a little insight, villain was a maniac and playing any two cards, hence me playing A9o. what would have you done in this situation?

What's the buyin op?

Clearly between $2.25 and $2.49 depending on the current exchange rate.

It was free as I got a ticket. It was a 33 dollar mtt

As played I don't see how the river lead bet is for value. (what hands would one expect a call from?) As a blocker bet I'm not sure I agree with that either. So, a x/c may have been a better line depending on the V's bet size, if he bets at all. So I agree with you there.

I also don't see issues with betting the turn to extract value from draws that miss. It would be rare to get raised here, but if so it usually a set, made flush, a bigger ace or a monster draw, in which case a fold is warranted. If V calls turn, I'd still take a x/c line depending on his river bet size. His hand is not nutted so it's hard for him to over bluff/bet the river here.

If he does then, I'd hate to say sometimes we loose here by simply folding. (which would have been correct based on the hands) However, we still have plenty of BB's to use for better spots. More over we loose about as much as we would have in this scenario, where we bet the turn and fold the river, as we when we checked the turn and b/c the river. Taking the lead in the hand on the turn is just a much better line IMHO.