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APL Ho Chi Minh ME 2018 Call or Fold? APL Ho Chi Minh ME 2018 Call or Fold?

11-23-2018 , 09:28 AM
Villain stacks are estimation.
Hero - UTG - 55bb
Villain1 - HJ - 65bb Aggressive Local
Villain2 - BB - 85bb Mediocre Local

Hero dealt with JJ

Hero raise 2.2bb
Villain1 3bet 7.5bb
Villain2 Call
Hero Call

Flop J44 (Pot 24bb)

Villain2 checks
Hero checks
Villain1 bet 8bb
Villain2 call
Hero call

Turn K (Pot 48bb)

Villain2 checks
Hero checks
Villain1 checks

River K (Pot 48bb)

Villain2 checks
Hero checks
Villain1 bet 18bb
Villain2 call

Hero???

What will you do here?
APL Ho Chi Minh ME 2018 Call or Fold? Quote
11-23-2018 , 10:56 AM
Your 100% in front of villain 2. he's re-raising river here with K.
I reckon you have about 60% equity here.

value shove river. only time to call river is when you want to min cash and are close to the money or are allready in the money and you care about prize jumps.

bet flop next time.

I'm never folding river here.

Last edited by latpokerad; 11-23-2018 at 11:14 AM.
APL Ho Chi Minh ME 2018 Call or Fold? Quote
11-23-2018 , 05:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by latpokerad
Your 100% in front of villain 2. he's re-raising river here with K.
I reckon you have about 60% equity here.

value shove river. only time to call river is when you want to min cash and are close to the money or are allready in the money and you care about prize jumps.

bet flop next time.

I'm never folding river here.
Nice review bro. Can you share your thoughts why we can shove river here? It really never come into my mind. I will share the results and every decision I have made in a second.
APL Ho Chi Minh ME 2018 Call or Fold? Quote
11-23-2018 , 10:23 PM
V1 can have QQ or Kx and that's about it. I think we can all agree he's almost never bluffing here even if he's described as aggressive in OP.

V2 is not likely to have Jx for obvious reasons, he could have QQ, maybe some 99-TT that decide to get sticky, and a few Jx. Kx should be discounted due to preflop and not leading river (or xr'ing this small river bet). However I still think V2 can play Kx like this, there's not much point to raising river and if he calls then maybe Hero stations something worse some % of the time.

I think I sigh fold here, just don't see enough bluffs/worse hands in their ranges when Hero holds two JJ.
APL Ho Chi Minh ME 2018 Call or Fold? Quote
11-24-2018 , 02:48 PM
I opt to only call the river and not to shove. I really hope latpokerad can share his thought why we can shove here because it really never come into my mind.

Results
Villain1 - AA
Villain2 - AJ

Here are some of my thoughts during this hand.

Pre-flop
Some people might argue I should 4 bet here because OOP. I don't 4bet because if someone 5bet shoves, I am not ready to go bust with J's. The worst hand my opponent can have usually AK and I am only 3% ahead and highly likely that I am underdog. Therefore, I just opt to flat and close the action.

Flop
Rainbow flop for opponent but dream flop for me. latpokerad suggest I should bet flop here but I only opt to x/c flop. I have an aggressive player behind is my first reason, secondly I am thinking I might leak information to my opponent.

Turn
I plan to c/shove here actually. I assume if someone bet the turn, sizing will be like 18-25bbs. Hence, I don't need to slow play my hand anymore. Unfortunately, Villain1 check back.

River
The worst river I can ever get. Pretty much no choice here other than check. When Villain1 bet and Villain2 call, I basically use less than 10 secs to figure out my hand is better than Villain2 vecause as latpokerad said, logically he should shoves instead of flat. His hand to me pretty much face up on AJ, T's, 9's, QJ the worst. I took some time to figure out Villain1 hand and the highest likely to me are Q's after discounted Jack from Villain2 because of turn check. I don't think Villain have a King here because he already double barrel with AKs, KQs to for value.

It did surprise me when he shows A's that never come across my mind. I keep asking myself why he didn't bet the turn? The only reason I guess he is trying to slowplay and trap. Any other thoughts?

Last edited by kimikaze88; 11-24-2018 at 03:02 PM.
APL Ho Chi Minh ME 2018 Call or Fold? Quote
11-24-2018 , 03:54 PM
why would BB shove his Kx? literally his only chance to make any more money in the hand is if Hero overcalls worse
APL Ho Chi Minh ME 2018 Call or Fold? Quote
11-24-2018 , 08:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RalphWaldoEmerson
why would BB shove his Kx? literally his only chance to make any more money in the hand is if Hero overcalls worse
Logically speaking, Villain2 99% will shove here if he has Kx. The worst outcome he can get here are chop which mean 0 risk. If we look into SPR, there are already 66 bbs in the pot. No matter who call his shoves, he will get the full value of his hand and if both call, it is definitely a chop. If both folded, he is more than happy to take down the 66big. I don't think any player will make a decision not to shove here for the god sake of another 18 bbs instead of trying to get full value with 0 risk.
APL Ho Chi Minh ME 2018 Call or Fold? Quote
11-24-2018 , 11:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by kimikaze88
Logically speaking, Villain2 99% will shove here if he has Kx. The worst outcome he can get here are chop which mean 0 risk. If we look into SPR, there are already 66 bbs in the pot. No matter who call his shoves, he will get the full value of his hand and if both call, it is definitely a chop. If both folded, he is more than happy to take down the 66big. I don't think any player will make a decision not to shove here for the god sake of another 18 bbs instead of trying to get full value with 0 risk.
Logically speaking V2 will never shove Kx here.

V1 could have KJ/44 and V2 would lose the raise. For no possible gain. If V1 has no K he will never call the raise. Similarly Hero would never call without a K. Also, Hero here could have KJ or 44.

The reason V2 doesn't have a K here is that he didn't lead the river when it seems likely to check through.

The reason I would say V1 likely doesn't have a K is that he didn't bet the turn given the flush draw possibilities vs 2 players. I am stunned V1 doesn't bet the turn with AA. Maybe V1 thinks he won't get a call because it looks like he has AK (or AA) if he bets the turn. But still why give a free card to a very possible flush draw? Anyway, good call on the river.

I probably c/r flop to make it look like a flush draw or a stupidly played AJ vs a 3-bet. We might be able to get it in vs the AA on the turn.
APL Ho Chi Minh ME 2018 Call or Fold? Quote
11-25-2018 , 12:47 AM
I think you're good less than 30% of the time however you have the pot odds to justify a call, but I prefer a fold.

You hit a parlay of particularly good events to come out best.
APL Ho Chi Minh ME 2018 Call or Fold? Quote
11-25-2018 , 05:56 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Rick
Logically speaking V2 will never shove Kx here.

V1 could have KJ/44 and V2 would lose the raise. For no possible gain. If V1 has no K he will never call the raise. Similarly Hero would never call without a K. Also, Hero here could have KJ or 44.

The reason V2 doesn't have a K here is that he didn't lead the river when it seems likely to check through.

The reason I would say V1 likely doesn't have a K is that he didn't bet the turn given the flush draw possibilities vs 2 players. I am stunned V1 doesn't bet the turn with AA. Maybe V1 thinks he won't get a call because it looks like he has AK (or AA) if he bets the turn. But still why give a free card to a very possible flush draw? Anyway, good call on the river.

I probably c/r flop to make it look like a flush draw or a stupidly played AJ vs a 3-bet. We might be able to get it in vs the AA on the turn.
I love your idea here that he didn't bet the river leads one of the reason he didn't have K. I agree some people might think about 44 here but frankly speaking, at this level of stacks and positioning, 4 is pretty irrelevant to me. Maybe we can see that in cash game, but I don't think we can see that a lot in mid tournament.

By the way, he has Athere. Maybe he think he blocked some flush draw. It really surprise me a lot when he shows Aces there. That's why I come to a conclusion that very high possibility he is trying to slow play because he only lose to K's or J's combo up to the turn.
APL Ho Chi Minh ME 2018 Call or Fold? Quote
11-25-2018 , 06:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bearer
I think you're good less than 30% of the time however you have the pot odds to justify a call, but I prefer a fold.

You hit a parlay of particularly good events to come out best.
Check, Call, Raise, that's the beauty option in poker. To me, poker is just like story telling. If all the story doesn't add up, then there must be something wrong instead of only justifying by using what everybody can see.

This is why if you see most of my post, I will ask for thought and logic behind the decision. It looks like I am trying to argue, but I am trying to learn something new.
APL Ho Chi Minh ME 2018 Call or Fold? Quote
11-25-2018 , 12:23 PM
I wouldn't sweat it too much. If you never fold flopped top boat you'll come out ahead lifetime.
APL Ho Chi Minh ME 2018 Call or Fold? Quote
11-25-2018 , 06:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bearer
I wouldn't sweat it too much. If you never fold flopped top boat you'll come out ahead lifetime.
Do you love magic? Not only poker have multiple outs, magician especially mentalism magician do use a technique called multiple outs. Of course magician create the act or "game", hence they can control the outcome of "multiple outs" in advance but in poker game, we use math probability to help us. Still, sometime we can see some magician failed in their act even thought they can prepare the outcome in advance and this is the reason why we being introduced something called "Murphy's Law".
APL Ho Chi Minh ME 2018 Call or Fold? Quote
12-01-2018 , 02:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by kimikaze88
Nice review bro. Can you share your thoughts why we can shove river here? It really never come into my mind. I will share the results and every decision I have made in a second.
villian1 haven't got a K.
villian 2 havent got a K.

if villian had AK i don't think villian would check behind turn. they just hit. when i hit i like to bet. villian like chips baby. thats his thinking.
AA they havent improved and decided to play with caution. this is how these chodes think.
river a k hits. villian thinks his AA is good since there two checks. villian probably thinks he get a J to call. or hes just betting because he got AA and thinks that is the best way to play the hand. I don't believe he thinks you or other villian have a 4 or a K.

Shove Shove Shove river baby. play to win. villian may or may not fold to check/raise. depends if he is fustrated or misreads the board or some ****.
plus your going to pick up a guarateed 68BB+ pot and maybe have a 110BB+ stack giving you a good shot at winning this tourny. he will be down to 10BB with virtually a harder chance of winning. then u just got to finish of the other. if its 3 handed final table of course.

Last edited by latpokerad; 12-01-2018 at 02:39 PM.
APL Ho Chi Minh ME 2018 Call or Fold? Quote
12-02-2018 , 05:35 PM
Shoving the river is ridiculous.

Flop should be a raise with the 2 other players already in a 3 bet pot. You want to build the pot in this situation.

River should be a call. No one is going to fold a K on this river, but they will fold other hands that you are beating. (You might get called with a 4). When you shove the river, you are letting them play their hand perfectly. An overcall here makes the most sense. It sucks if AK got there.
APL Ho Chi Minh ME 2018 Call or Fold? Quote
12-18-2018 , 06:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by latpokerad
villian1 haven't got a K.
villian 2 havent got a K.

if villian had AK i don't think villian would check behind turn. they just hit. when i hit i like to bet. villian like chips baby. thats his thinking.
AA they havent improved and decided to play with caution. this is how these chodes think.
river a k hits. villian thinks his AA is good since there two checks. villian probably thinks he get a J to call. or hes just betting because he got AA and thinks that is the best way to play the hand. I don't believe he thinks you or other villian have a 4 or a K.

Shove Shove Shove river baby. play to win. villian may or may not fold to check/raise. depends if he is fustrated or misreads the board or some ****.
plus your going to pick up a guarateed 68BB+ pot and maybe have a 110BB+ stack giving you a good shot at winning this tourny. he will be down to 10BB with virtually a harder chance of winning. then u just got to finish of the other. if its 3 handed final table of course.
Sorry for late replying and thank you so much for sharing your thought. I think almost similar from my thought during turn. If villain have a K there, I believe 85% player will opt for double barrel. I love your thought here. River bet as per your explanation because of both check, he's thinking Aces is good here.

I still don't think he didn't bet Aces on turn just because he didn't improve and try to be cautious. It is more likely to me he is thinking and trying to trap opponent. He got a nice flush draw blocker, 4 pretty irrelevant on 3 bet pot with this stack size and positioning unless table are school of fish. Basically his hand only beat by K's and J's, not even KJ.
APL Ho Chi Minh ME 2018 Call or Fold? Quote
12-18-2018 , 06:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PhatPots
Shoving the river is ridiculous.

Flop should be a raise with the 2 other players already in a 3 bet pot. You want to build the pot in this situation.

River should be a call. No one is going to fold a K on this river, but they will fold other hands that you are beating. (You might get called with a 4). When you shove the river, you are letting them play their hand perfectly. An overcall here makes the most sense. It sucks if AK got there.
I don't think flop raise is the best decision here unless we are 200bbs deep because I think the pot are huge enough for us to get it all in on turn or river. We want to keep our customer because basically they are in drawing death situation. There are 2 hearts out there and we don't have any blocker, we want to keep them in drawing death situation. If we raise on flop here, there are not much hand ranges that can make this call and very likely if someone have A drawing hand, he might get away too.

I more agree on river an overcall is the best decision to avoid villain play their hand perfectly and save our chips if they beat us, nothing much we can do. Shove might be the second best option but I have to admit I need to have balls to make this work and it is less likely getting paid. Fold is definitely no no to me and the worst decision if justifying according to all the action.
APL Ho Chi Minh ME 2018 Call or Fold? Quote

      
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