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All in on a draw All in on a draw

05-26-2019 , 06:40 AM
$360 tourney, second flight of three for a two day tourney. 69 people remain, bagging at 20 people or in three hours. Hero is in BB, blinds at 600/1200 (12k BB ante) with 20k behind. Limper in cutoff, small blind completes, hero checks J6cc.

Flop comes 9c4c9x. SB checks, hero bets 5k, co folds, SB jams. Hero?

Having played with small blind the last 5 hours or so, I was pretty confident she had a set, I just don't know if I should lay it down here. I suppose she could have a 4, in which case I have two live cards (A4 or K4s could be in a small blind's completing range here), 55, 66, 77, 88 all possible, didn't think TT+ was possible because I would expect a raise pre. The big fear is a bigger flush draw, and I don't think she'd ever do this with a smaller flush draw. So our best case is A4? And if we are where I think we are, we have 8 outs twice and technically runner-runner jacks live. So is this a call?

A fold leaves us with roughly 15k, which is 1/5 an average stack and 12 blinds. A win gives us ~42k, a loss sends us home.
All in on a draw Quote
05-26-2019 , 12:40 PM
How much stack does SB have?

why do you bet flop as opposed to checking to co?

and why do you bet pot?

as played, i would count 1 J as out. giving us maybe 38% or something, so id call as played.


i would check flop to co. try to make a betsizing read if someone bets, and for good price peal one.
All in on a draw Quote
05-26-2019 , 05:27 PM
Fair enough. Sb was probably around 80k. I guess the idea was to try to isolate an over pair or 4 and bluff later if I missed. Clearly I didn't get that chance
All in on a draw Quote

      
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