Pokerstars $55 Daily Marathon - 14 players left - blinds $12000/$6000

My stack is around 500,000 in 3rd/4th place.
BB stack is around 1,100,000 in 2nd place.

I’m playing mainly a tight aggressive style.
BB is raising with a wide range and barrelling post-flop. Recently lost half his stack after re-raising twice and then folding against an all-in on the river. Is betting lots against smaller stacks and pushing them off their hands.

Folds to me on the cutoff with AKos. I raise to $27000.
Folds to BB who calls.
Flop comes K 8 3.
BB bets 90,000.

What do you do?

I decided to shove and BB calls with K 8.

Btw, flop is rainbow.

What could BB have here that beats us?
AA KK 88 33 K8 K3 83

What do we beat?
Every other pocket pair
Every other K combination
Every 8 combination or complete bluff

I think this guy was raising the flop more or less regardless of what came out, so imo this is just bad luck for me.

Don't see what you achieve by going all in. I'd let him barrel off and start betting if he stops.

I’m trying to win the pot quickly, before he potentially makes a set or 2 pair. Judging by past hands, he won’t stop betting until he has been re- raised big.

i would make a normal, 30-60,000 c bet if he jammed i would call though.

on most turns i would jam or bet 90,000 and i would not fold

The bet seems to be near pot-size, so a lot of strength. I would call on the flop and re-evaluate on turn. Difficult spot with AK here. Raising all-in on flop only makes opponent play correctly (call with better hands, fold worse hands).

The bet is similar to previous hands. He has been betting very strong and winning lots of pots before the river. The one opponent who stood up to him raised him all-in on the river and he folded. The river card was inconsequential so I put him on a bluff that hand.

It’s a tricky spot.

It's not that tricky, if you know that he's putting money with variety of hands here. It's still a call on the flop. You can re-evaluate on the turn. You probably still have to call it off, if he pushes all-in considering the history. Calling on the flop gives you most flexibility.

Same here - can't be afraid of a LAG catching up with a random 2-pair since most of the time he won't.

A different thought would be what else do you know about the villain (other than he's aggressive). If he's a thinking player he knows a K hits your range and thus his lead out bet is bait if he smashes. If he sees you as a TAG then you likely have one of the remaining 12 combinations of AK, 12 more of KQ, and 6 combinations of AA vs. only 1 remaining combination of KK and 88 each (he'll probably rule out you raised with 33). If he checks, he wins any cbet you might make with AQ, QQ, JJ and 10-10 (you will most likely give up when he calls or raises) but he'll win more the times you call/raise with AK or AA or KQ. It's not a good flop for him to lead given your likely range and position if he misses (despite his aggressiveness) if he's a thinking player.

Lastly, if he's a tourney reg he may also consider the late stage of the tournament and your respective chip positions which then narrows both of your ranges.

Overall, no need to shove the flop but also hard to fold AK on later streets unless you know this villain very very well.

He is definitely a thinking player. He also went on to win the tournament. I suppose that I intuitively put him on K-something but thought the chances of that being K8 or K3 were small. His bet would likely have been the same with KQ KJ KT K9 and by raising all-in I either win the pot there before he can make 2pair or I double up if he calls. That was my thinking anyway, in the moment with the adrenaline pumping. I was convinced I had the best hand. Maybe I should have raised more pre-flop but I wanted action with AK. The only way I would have folded AK is if I were playing to final table but I wanted to win the tournament and felt way too strong to fold with that flop texture.

I always find it fascinating when someone posts and just about everyone who answers agrees on the action, the poster took a different action, but then spends the rest of his time arguing why his action was best. It makes me wonder why they took the time to ask in the first place.

This is a clear call to me. I know people don't want to hear criticism. But argue all you want, and everyone will still think this is a call spot.

Yeah middle stages this might be different. But you are near an ICM pressure point. You are nearing the final table. ICM is slowly increasing. Especially since you are against a stack large enough to bust you. You might be facing an ICM spot where the pressure is about 1.6:1 against you is not more.

Now looking at it through that lens, you are either bluffing or value betting when you shove. Correct? To value bet you need to get called 1.6 time or more with hands that you beat. He also has ICM pressure. What is the lowest hand he may call with? Maybe KT. QQ certainly can't call. T8/98 can't call. At some point he even has to start folding out top pair combinations as well. I'm not even sure he can call with K9.

So he has potentially about 25 hands that beat you calling and KQ/KJ/KT is 36 hands. That is still slightly below the amount you need him to call to make this a good value bet. That is even if he can call KT which is questionable. He has to call K9 to make this a good value shove and with the ICM pressure against him, I think that is questionable at best. And that is also assuming that my estimate of 1.6:1 ICM pressure against you is high enough. It may be higher. And that is not even considering a skill factor you may have or stack factors present, like possibly 6 stacks on the verge of busting right now.

So the next question is to analyze the bluff potential. How many better hands will he fold. 0. If we already established he may call as low as KT, there is nothing better ever folding out.

If your hand is too strong to bluff and too weak to value bet, there is only one thing left.

Please don’t misunderstand - I’m not trying to argue that I was right but by explaining myself I am understanding what my thinking was in that moment. Then in reading your responses I can interrupt that process and perhaps in a similar spot in the future I will do something more optimal. I agree that calling was the best option and now wish I had called. Hopefully my approach to this spot in the future will be a little more cautious and open-minded.

Thank you for the responses.

You wanted to win the pot immediately more than you wanted to win the tournament. You refused to allow him to put bad money in with KJ and air because soothing your anxiety was more important to you than winning the tournament.

Don't frame this as people trying to find ways to get away from AK. Nobodys not paying him off here, but there are many ways to die.

The way you have written the blinds and raise is weird, but why are we over 4x pre in the CO? Just go 2.2x or mr, this guy can spazz out and we can 4b the top of our range here, so its fine to price in his 3bs more.

If we 83bb deep and v has us covered then why are we shoving our stack into 10.5bb in the middle? Think about your range here, what bluffs are you allocating to balance this off, not much so v can overfold in a spot where you should be underbluffing a dam ton.. he should have a good money print vs you here if he has a clue.

Vs this type of player my plan on the flop would be just to call because you want to keep all his worse hands and bluffs in and raise either the turn or river after he has put in another bet oop. Proly river because you want to make sure we get all 3 streets. If he was to put in a 3rd raise, I would think about it but still mostly calling because this kind of guy can show up with all sorts of random stuff. You have to realise how strong your hand is on such a dry board, no run out is really scary as we have the overcard. Rainbow boards can go running out flushes but thats a really small % only real thing is if bottom or mid pair repeats as he might have some of these in his leading range, but he has heaps of air too... I think we are always going to be losing alot of chips here regardless of how its played, we are at the top of our range on a dry board vs an opponent who is playing lag.

Also something has to be said for the fact we are in a pre icm stage at the moment, 5 more and its ft time.. if we are in a good position chipwise, say top 5, we definately dont want to punting alot of chips in a longball play in anyone spot especially where confrontation is guarenteed to someone who has us covered. In saying this never folding when we this far up for 3 big bets otr.. its proly guna be tiny fraction of our stack anyway.

I did raise about 2.2x - blinds were 6/12000 and raise was to 27000.

Sorry, I’ve only been playing for a few months and apart from another thread I started in the psychology forum, I’ve never talked to anybody about poker before. Still learning.

Yep even when the blinds are this big its ok to just mr now, 2.2 is better early - mid imo but its trivial anyhow.

Flop is a slam dunk call, you have to realise the effect your raise has against your opponents range.. it serves to make it more narrow, as he can now fold the bottom - mid part of his range and continue with the top. Best to keep your opponents range as wide as possible going into turn play, lets let the donkey pull the cart instead of pushing it so to speak.. you actually play into lags hands by raising, when we have position trapping is much better

I see what you’re saying. I think bearer was right about me wanting to soothe my anxiety by getting the hand over and done with. It was a spot I’d rather not have been in at that point of the tournament. (I’m not trying to justify it by any means but just explaining the psychology that led to my poor decision making. Tension was high and the spot seemed to take me by surprise)

You have the right attitude. Keep reflecting on your play and getting perspectives from others. Learning is what's important - not one right or wrong decision. We all learn and you'll learn faster with the help of others. Good luck wynner88888.

Thanks MOnes. I try to be objective.

I agree with other poster that said by jamming, you are letting your opponent play correctly against you. I say prolly call and see turn. By calling you keep bluffs around. What is your opponent calling a jam with? Only hands that beat you and maybe kq,kj,k-10 ifnot a good player.

As played bad luck.