Blinds 8000/16000/2000
Quite a bit at stake here. 41 left playing for 21 main event ($10600) seats
Hero 250k (just doubled, tight but not nitty image)
Average is also 250k
9 handed
AKo utg
I’m about to make a standard raise here when utg1 goes allin out of turn for 3bb. Local ruling is that the allin stands irrespective of my action.

I can limp, which then allows me to see all action and decide (typically reshoving). But if other shorties get on the gravy train or a big stack iso shoves, then I’m in a high risk/variance spot.

I can shove, but I’ve already tanked here a little and clearly capped my range.

I’m looking for the safest route through the final stages to a seat, jamming late position into shorties, waiting for premium pp etc. this feels wrong, but when is AK and 15bb ever wrong 20 spots from the $$?

L/eval but usually l/j. V acting out of turn helps us by giving us relative position. Don't see any better option.

fwiw anyone paying attention should know you are uncapped regardless of limping or tanking.

jam camp

Shove for me. He's probably shoving around 70%. The fact that he's acted out of turn may mean he's nervous/excited to get it in - maybe with something like 99/AQ. I can't see me doing anything other than jamming.

Limp/decide

As long as it is a satty getting closer and closer to the $$$, imho you should ALWAYS take the lowest variance approach. In that regard, spasm snapp Jamming pre doesnt seem to be the way to go here. You ve free info that is very valuable but at the same time, you are playing a 9hnd game! Therefore, you want to avoid jamming utg. In those satty spots close to the end goal (ticket), if you can avoid flipping then, just avoid it. So imho, limping and reconsidering once its back to u seems to be the way to go.

l/deciding is going to be higher variance than openjamming.

In most normal situations this is a clear jam (we should treat it like a reshove situation) but in a satellite it's less obvious. Without knowing starting stack or ratio of seats per entry I can't say for sure where the last blind level is likely to be, which should influence our decision.

Shove.

How come? I mean in that precise spot, are oppos going to rejam anything worst than Ak and 99+ once there is an "out of turn play" which led to utg limp? We are blocking AA, AK, AQ so besides us being very unlucky, most of the time we wont run our hand into those. I thought that l/deciding was the best option because in case one or more players jam for our whole stack, we could fold because it is a satty and we might find a better spot than having to jam blindly into 7 oppos. What abt min raising then? Our goal is not to get felted, therefore would you take a flip that you can avoid in that situation?

I would shove in that spot, regardless of what the 3bb stack did out of turn. You maximize your fold equity and go after the 3bb stack. With 15 bigs any open besides all in seems bad as youre going to leave yourself open to being reraised and put into awkward spots where youre likely to call anyway. Id rather just get the max fold equity and try to steal blinds and antes.

You're also 20 spots away from the seat, and you have an average stack which is only 15 big blinds. I think for all those reasons an all in is correct in this spot.

I did indeed shove (after tanking)

Was called on BTN from high stakes cash PLO player with 99 and 10BB (thoughts?) who flopped a set on 9JQr and turned book. SB also tanked but folded.

In hindsight i'm ok with the shove as several players behind showed interest (other than BTN) and it's likely a limp would have resulted in at least two, possibly 3 other all-ins, which i would have folded given icm.

Regardless, i hate busting big sats this close to $$ and need a damn fine reason to do so. Still not sure whether jam or limp/decide is better here and it may be an unknowable spot. Also not sure whether 99 did the right thing in calling off, but the guy is a sicko reg high stakes who clearly figured my range was biased to AQ-AK rather than JJ+.

Edit: Following hand was BVB with 5BB. Large stack SB jammed, i had K7ss and too much equity to fold. He rolled A6o. Flop J86, turn 7, river 6, busto.

You are being results oriented. Sure you got called and he out flopped you. That happens. But you examine poker in ranges not results. In ranges you shoving he gets involved far less of the time. Then you are heads-up against the 3BBs for a 8.5BB pot with about 63% equity.

Even if he has a hand he can call, against his range you invested 10BBs into a 25.5BB pot with about 37% equity to scoop with 52% equity in the side pot when the shorty wins the main pot.

sick

Interesting chat with the guy who had 99 a week later. Had I limped he would have put me on a slightly stronger range eg take out AJ

He would've tank-called / tank-called anyway.

Anyone feel like a limp here is stronger? If your image is tight/solid, and everyone is aware that you're aware of the OOP AI, I'd think you're more likely to be trapping AA-QQ here than limping AJ/88-TT, and would be skeptical about re-jamming

Don't play sats unless you can take the $ instead of the seat.

I’d like to question what a 2.5x raise would have done for your range? To me, shove says that you don’t really want to be called. Could a raise with intention to sigh-call shove have maximised fold equity?

Ignore bump, this thread is old. I lost a flip.

i think it may of.

obviously limpdecide a reasonable tight range