Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - 700/1,400 NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 77,400 (VPIP: 16.09, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 6.06, Hands: 87)
BTN: 143,576 (VPIP: 24.87, PFR: 15.34, 3Bet Preflop: 2.60, Hands: 195)
SB: 97,204 (VPIP: 22.50, PFR: 17.83, 3Bet Preflop: 9.23, Hands: 161)
BB: 73,260 (VPIP: 22.02, PFR: 12.32, 3Bet Preflop: 5.80, Hands: 219)
Hero (UTG): 104,666
UTG+1: 75,955 (VPIP: 9.38, PFR: 6.25, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 32)
MP: 112,355 (VPIP: 16.21, PFR: 13.77, 3Bet Preflop: 5.13, Hands: 293)
MP+1: 18,075 (VPIP: 8.00, PFR: 2.17, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 52)

8 players post ante of 175, SB posts SB 700, BB posts BB 1,400

Pre Flop: (pot: 3,500) Hero has K K

Hero raises to 2,800, fold, fold, fold, fold, BTN calls 2,800, fold, BB calls 1,400

Flop: (10,500, 3 players) J 3 8
BB checks, Hero bets 4,200, BTN raises to 12,000, fold, Hero calls 7,800

Turn: (34,500, 2 players) 4
Hero checks, BTN bets 17,250, Hero calls 17,250

River: (69,000, 2 players) Q
Hero checks, BTN bets 34,500, Hero?

Open to thoughts on all streets.

Fold river, and hand is WP. I'd expect a jam from V with his triple barreling range because his bluffs are well-enough protected with nutted flushes but maybe that's subconsciously a symptom of him underbluffing in this spot.

Hero does have a range advantage on this flop, but nothing too crazy.

Hero's got a mix of hands that wanna bet, hands that wanna check, and hands that are happy either way. When that happens the equilibrium strategy tends to be mixed across hero's entire range.

Being a mixed strategy, your cbetting range should look very similar to your opening range, at least relatively speaking--if we're playing a mixed strategy we're obviously shaving combos off our cbetting range and stuffing them into a checking range, but except for perhaps having slightly proportionally fewer underpair combos in your cbetting range it should look very similar to your opening range.

Given that, V should be raising fairly frequently and quite wide (vs the most frequently preferred 25% pot sizing that is) since hero should have underpairs that wanna fold to a lots of A-high and K-high that wanna fold too hence V can bluff and semibluff wide. Also he can immediately raise for value often with 88 and 33 (he likely doesn't have JJ even given stats IMO) since hero has so many overpairs and Jx combos and also FDs that'll start paying him off.

A good V is getting to the river with tons of flushes and sets which allows him to really efficiently split his range to maximize his strategy's EV. He can check some sets and Jx too, and generally be OK at showdown. Then he can take care of the rest of his range (the remaining flushes, whatever air he might have--he should be raising flop somewhat wide, remember?) and jam, which maximizes his EV by getting max value when called and good and max fold equity on his bluffs. Super polarized and for max pressure.

So the summary is, I personally don't really like V's betsizing OTR. But if he isn't ever raising at some flop at some frequency with say {AcQx, or KcQx if he has it, or 9d7d if he has that}, then he's gonna he really imbalanced towards flushes and maybe he knows it. Why jam when you always wanna be called?

It's moot becuase it's basically a breakeven call anyway even with the club blocker but in practice always a fold and a losing call.

what is that flop size? bet something healthy esp unblocking AJ

pretty easy river fold, no possible bluffs in V's range

i think you played it well.

i hate putting in money on flop and turn to fold river, that always blows tho.

but in this situation i think its hard to avoid.

im wondering what people think about if he has a set on flop, do people keep valuebetting on this runout?

anybody feels like ripping it on the river here?

and if not, how about if we had AcAd instead of KcKd?

fold river and I like the line

No.

They're the same hand.