Curious.. had started well in this tournament.. this is at the 250/500/500 level. I was 2nd in chips at our table and got in a hand with chip lead (at our table.) She seems like a fairly solid player playing well and running into good spots - but capable of making plays/reads although when she's shown down, she's had it thus far. We've seen her just call a check raise with nuts on turn also AQ vs KK on K high - trapping to get value on (safe)river.

I have around ~70k and she has ~95k

I'm in bb with J2o black/black in seat 8. She's in seat 2. She min-raised pre and had 3 callers behind so I threw in the extra 500$ getting a great price.

Flop is QJ2 w/two hearts and one diamond. I check, intending to check raise and she bets 1k and everyone behind folds. I like going a little bigger, but made it 3.5k as played.

Turn is a 6d, a nice card, but does put backdoor diamonds on the boards as well.

Turn range/guestimate/equity:

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

2,552 trials (Exhaustive)

board: QJ26

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
Jd2c	75.00%	1,914	0
KT, 6h5h-AhKh, QT+, AQ, QQ	25.00%	638	0

I glance at the pot and throw in 7.2k - again I like bigger here.. Do you guys like an overbet here?

River is ... Ah - best card in the deck for us (kidding, obv )

River range/guestimate/equity:

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

54 trials (Exhaustive)

board: QJ26A

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
Jd2c	35.19%	19	0
KT, 6h5h-AhKh, QT+, AQ, QQ	64.81%	35	0

What are we doing here? Prefer a small bet/fold to a raise or check/fold (depending on sizing) -- as played I checked holding eye contact (probably not best thing to do here) and she bet 10k

I verbally (again not the best idea -- haven't been playing live much lately) say after a short while can we replace that card dealer?

fold pre

Fold pre as well, we would need some kind of gigantic postflop edge to think we can defend any 2. I mean J2o is like bottom 10% of hands... (and 72o might be best because it's dominated less often).

I would c-c flop a lot like the nit I am and because I don't really want to c-r bluff a lot when she c-bets into 4 players on that board. As played I don't see any logic in doing anything else but check the river and when she bets we beat T9dd and maybe KhQx that seems like not many combos.

Why fold pre, when we have enough equity to defend vs. AA?

because even when you flop two pair you have no clue about what you should do.

Yea I lean fold here pre. Even two pair hands are odd to play when we hit. Seems like we fold flop a lot here so I’m fine pitching pre. I think calling the flop is fine to control the pot with a vulnerable hand

I agree with defending for 500 into 3000 pot pre. Disagree with strategy of check-raising flop. If other players call the c-bet, then there's an argument for thinning the field of villains with a raise so you can be heads up, but when everyone else folds, I'd rather just call and let the c-bettor think that her one pair hand is good. On turn, despite additional flush outs, I would check/call again, which both controls the pot and keeps your hand strength disguised. If villain has a stronger hand (QJ or set), she will bet for value but will want to keep you in. If villain bets larger, then likely to be protecting a vulnerable one-pair hand or draw. On river, both as played and regardless it's probably a fold, but smaller pot early means that her value bet will be smaller, giving you a better option to hero call and hope you're beating AK.

Thanks Kevin,

Yeah I don't mind flat on flop although I prefer if her sizing was bigger. I should have been more clear that I was planning to check-raise or flat dependent upon action - based on the 1k sizing and drawy board decided for check raise, but I like the flatting also.

I am still losing to only a small portion of her range: QQ/QJ essentially, but helps allow her to continue to barrel her one pair hands as you mentioned while keeping the pot more manageable.