Quote:
Originally Posted by blakeatron
Just so we can be on the same page. If you have 99cs in his spot, you'd fold to a turn shove, but call a turn bet of 25% pot if you are V? What about 99hd?
Compared to the combos of flushes he could have raising UTG, there are way more combos of pairs (and better Jx in this specific case since I believe we should only do this with KJ+ after playing the hand).
EDIT - Submitted before you edited your last post. You're giving him A6s and QJo in his UTG raise + call 3bet OOP 30BB effective range? I think that's incredibly ambitious. If he has those hands, he has worse Jxs more of the times as well.
A6s yes, QJo no, but AJo yes. It's really not ambitious at all. It's a $570 live MTT. You even described V as "active". Live V's don't fold AXs preflop or big AXo for 1/10th their stack. Especially if they think they're dominating you (which he is with AJo
)
Most of V's range is A-high and worse OTT. 75% of his range are underpairs. It's not conducive to extracting via an overbet, nor is it conducive to overbet bluffing. You can go b25% OTT with your bluffs and then jam river and get exactly the same results as overbet jamming the turn with the added benefit of actually seeing what the river is before deciding to commit AND extract an extra bet from V OTT.
And again, for the third time, b25% is clearly the better sizing with this particular hand. There is no way to justify otherwise.
Yes I'm absolutely folding hands for an overbet that I'd otherwise call b25%. Duh, lol. Wouldn't you? You have some serious leaks if not.
Not folding any pair for one quarter-pot bet. Also not folding wheel aces. But certainly am vs an overbet.
The only way you're gonna be able to justify this is with some metagame considerations that no one here is privy to. Something like V is just prone to reverse-big-willy-style pwn himself against overbets. You overbet him in a previous hand, yeah so? He obviously folded that hand, right?
By taking this line you're making V's life incredibly easy.
BTW, checking behind turn is also an acceptable line.
Last edited by EggsMcBluffin; 04-08-2019 at 08:55 AM.