Hey guys,

Villain was a fish, playing lots of hands. First time I played him, so no further reads really. It was ~20 ppl off the money, and I personally dont think he ever bluffs. I don't really play tourneys usually, so I'm curious about opinions.

Cheers

https://www.boomplayer.com/28787469_CC2CFD1C54

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That is a ****ty ****ing spot but I just don't think vill has enough bluffs to make our call profitable. Think you played it fine and made a good fold on the end.

I am usually checking the flop in this spot, not quite enough out there to target for value.

As played seems like a pretty easy call on the river. I disagree that it's tough for villain to be bluffing. IMO even bad players recognize that you hate this runout and it's tough for you to have a straight or flush. I feel even more strongly about this since you mentioned villain was playing a lot of hands -- he could be just clicking buttons, and bluffing this spot is a popular button to click.

Interesting... So do you think that in general the lower stakes pop will overbluff boards that they know are good for their range and worse for opponents? Does that mean we should be calling more in these spots?

Can't see that you did anything wrong here. Obviously you have to fold.

This hand is interesting for another reason IMO.

I think it shows the weakness of the trend towards smaller c-bets.

Your c-bet gives him 4-to-1 on his call, which allows him to continue with almost his entire range. Of course when you have top set this is not necessarily a bad thing, but I posit that it adds a lot of variance to your reality, and we all know that variance is the enemy of GTO play. Thoughts?

I cannot agree with this. Calling off essentially your whole stack, on the bubble, with a 4-card straight and a 3-card flush that you don't have on board? Obviously he has a ton of bluffs here, but who cares. If you are making that call then maybe it's not him who is the fish.

He does not have to be overbluffing for us to call. We are way up at the top of our range, the only way we should fold is if we think he's significantly underbluffing.

I did forget "20 off the bubble" in the $55 WCOOP main probably means we are in effect right at the bubble, how many people cashed this tournament?

What?

That's not my point. I agree with your analysis, I think I might have been a bit off track..

However, my point was to ask if you think that ppl tend to overbluff these boards b/c of their range advantages should we be calling down on these boards more often.

Oh. Good question.

My answer is no. In fact, I'd bet almost all villains in a $55 WCOOP will underbluff this spot.

I know you probably get this but for the benefit of others: there is a massive difference between "villain is underbluffing" and "villain is never bluffing". We really have to believe the latter, or very close to it, to fold here. It's really tough to have better than AA here. We should have 3 combos of 97s, maybe a couple random flush combos, that's about all. We shouldn't play A7 this way ever.

We could probably have a convo about whether AA is the best our set/2 pair/top pair hands to defend with due to blockers, but that's probably a level too deep for right now.

Why not go bigger ott? I think you're missing out here. I think river is a fold. I don't think villain is aware he has so much 7's here, but is aware that 4 to a flush, 4 to a straight=good spot to bluff. Still, I dont think they will try to make you fold AK enough to make this a call.

nasty spot indeed.
as a default against most players I think I'm folding, V needs to have hands like 84s or 64s in his range getting to river to be able to have bluffs here, and you should be able to weight those down due to preflop and calling turn.

however against a fish it's a little more complicated, bc they can sometimes button click worse for value, and they may have an overall wider range getting to river.

Curious-- for those saying fold, is it mostly because of ICM, or would you make the same play in level 3?

I think it was Andy Bloch (MIT, Harvard etc) who claimed that because he employed a Game Theory Optimal strategy, in theory he could not be out-played. Obviously since NL Holdem is not a solved game, executing a perfect GTO strategy is not obtainable. But for someone hewing close to that ideal, in theory the only way they can lose is to be on the wrong side of variance. One way to counter someone executing a GTO strategy against you (also known as running you over,) is to create a lot of variance or the potential for a lot of variance for your opponent.

I like your line here, in my experience when villian takes this kind of like of x/c, x/c, jam when an obvious draw hits the river they usually have it as they don't want to lose value. If a fish does it, it is even more so, they essentially see their hand 'I have a straight, I must bet chips'. Also note v can have alot of 7x hands defending from the bb

it seems just a bad spot CeV wise.

Don't remember exactly, but yeah, the bubble burst just a few hands later, maybe one orbit...



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Exactly, in Cashgames (which i usually play) I've seen fish show up with 99 here...

Another thing to think about is that I don't have the Ad, so he def can have the Nutflush here.



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He's probably not doing this with just a straight, so he backdoored a flush or turns something into a bluff. There aren't many hands that c/c twice that a typical 55$ player would turn into a bluff here, but if he's good enough he can potentially take any AdX and bluffshove. If you want some bluffcatchers because you think he might bluff here, use hands that have the Kd or 6d, blocking his diamonds that peel flop but not the Ad which he will probably use as a bluffing card if he bluffs at all. You do have a few of your own rivered flushes that can call of course.

At an even higher level someone might play a lower set this way for value (jamming river because you'll check back all your 2 pairs etc) and your hand as trips actually has some value over 1 pair, but that might be a bit of a stretch for this field.

im always pretty easy spewfolding vs fish and thats it

Gotta go bigger on the turn m8. That card hit's villains range harder than us so when we bet again we should be pretty polarized.

OTR just roll your eyes and fold. I don't think there are bluffs in villains range or worse value.