This is earlier than the previous hand but we're still well into the money. I think well less than 100 left at this point.

Feel like my line is pretty standard up to the turn. I wasn't sure what to do because I felt like raising/jamming only gets my money in against a better hand, but I'm not sure and maybe it's plausible I have a combo draw if I do jam. Since villain covers me, not going broke is a concern here. That bet sizing on the turn doesn't seem like a jack, but I also don't know if villain will call a raise without one, and if I get it in vs. another jack I almost certainly have kicker problems.

What would you do? Should I have lead the turn instead?

Yatahay Network - 40000/80000 NL (8 max) - Holdem - 7 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 42.12 BB
Hero (BB): 28.57 BB
UTG: 40.65 BB
UTG+1: 56.18 BB
MP: 28.63 BB
CO: 27.53 BB
BTN: 34.62 BB

7 players post ante of 0.1 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.2 BB) Hero has 9 J

fold, fold, fold, fold, BTN raises to 2.19 BB, fold, Hero calls 1.19 BB

Flop: (5.59 BB, 2 players) J 2 5
Hero checks, BTN bets 1.9 BB, Hero calls 1.9 BB

Turn: (9.38 BB, 2 players) J
Hero checks, BTN bets 3.85 BB

I think a solver can check raise here and not be face up, but in order to do so, we needed to check/call a lot of non obvious hands on the flop, like Q6dd. Almost all of its bluffs come from turned diamonds.

As a human, I doubt you will have enough bluffs in your range; your check raise will be face up to Jx and better.

I don't think you should be concerned about not going broke. You are going to have to call a river shove anyway, but the money will likely go in better if Villain puts it in.

Second half is more the point I was trying to make. I'm worried that if I jam, the money isn't going in as good for me as it is if I let villain keep firing. But I'm also worried that I'm not maximizing the value of my hand by check/calling.

I’d just continue check/calling all the way through the river.

He’s going to have picked up flush draws on the turn that will most likely fire the river if unimproved to try and get you off a 5 or a 2. He might value jam worse like an overpair. He might even keep blasting his air with no draw to get you off a 5 or 2.

Is anyone ever checkraising this flop? Does the solver ever checkraise the flop here?

I am sure PIO will have some check raises here. The check raise accomplishes a lot:

1. Equity denial
2. Board coverage on this turn card.
3. Having adequate bluff catchers for its check/raise, check line.

This is even more true at medium to low SPR as here.

Can you elaborate on what board coverage means? Thnx

If we can check raise top pair on the flop, we will be able to turn trips when the top card pairs. Solvers like having strong hands on as many different turn cards as they can. In some spots that won't be possible, but it is a good generality. That means we need to check raise some top pair here. FWIW, my simulation showed that PIO check raises a Jack (one pair only) 3/4 of the time.

This is a very high percentage for c/r a one pair hand. That is strongly influenced by Villain's small bet size and the lowish SPR. PIO is prepared to play for stacks on a card below the jack on the turn with all of its Jx

I suspect many humans literally never check raise top pair here. The fact that we don't have much 2P definitely factors in here. We want to be able to check raise some of our no showdown draws like 43/64/63, and some double back doors like T9s with a BDFD, in order to balance that with strong hands, top pair is going to be where we get most of our value.

Interesting, thanks for the insight.

That is interesting-- I hadn't really thought about check-raising the flop because I was not at all confident in stacking off here, but with hindsight it might be the optimal play ("hindsight" being "the turn card"). And maybe with this SPR I should be more comfortable stacking off with top pair. I dunno-- as I said, I hate putting myself in marginal situations that I could bust in this deep into a run, so I'm not sure if I'm just nitting up spots like this too much. I do think I need to get a little more of my old gamble in me, perhaps (although IMO I still have other, bigger weaknesses).

Here's how the full hand played out:

Do you have any bluffs that take that line? What is Villain's incentive to call with worse? I guess he has a few combos of worse Jxs. I think you got all you can get out of this hand.

I mispoke/typoed a bit in my post. I meant check through the river. On the river, especially with his sizing, I think we should check/jam. We can have 34, some diamond draws...even if we don't have any draws or many I don't think we need to be balanced. Even if it looks super strong I don't think he ever has a J with his sizing.

Edit: If he had bet pot or close to it on the river then check/call seems appropriate.

I actually like x/r on the flop for the reason 3for3 mentioned above - the SPR is relatively low and with top pair we should fine playing for stacks on a lot of board. Plus when x/r this flop, we get to have stuff like 64/43 or random backdoor diamond hands like 76dd with which we can barrel on favorable turns. It's not terrible as well to get hands like backdoor flush hands or overcards to fold.

Flop no, but turn is possible

The solver’s checkraising this flop 75% of the time.

I’m not sure I would’ve, but I would’ve considered it. I think it’s more useful for everyone if you give some reasoning behind your ideas, so why wouldn’t you ever CR this flop?

75% of its entire range? Or 75% of the time with this hand?

I would c/r most QJ,KJ,AJ hands that beat more Jx hands and block overpairs, but I think I flat weaker Jx mostly.

Turn I probably still have enough stronger Jx that just called flop to balance with some backdoor diamond draws.

River is interesting. Its a spot where I expect to be behind almost never, but I also expect villain to not call with worse. I would still go for it vs someone who doesn't like folding and give them a chance to make a mistake.

75% of its Jx. You are on to something with not check raising weaker Jx, although a hand like QJ needs less protection than a hand like J9, as it has one fewer overcard to fade.

I am not sure if I put AJo in hero's range; it surely gets 3! at some frequency.

River is only a raise if we are facing someone who is married to an overpair. What bluffs would you have?

Hi OP

Flop is mainly check-raise.

But if we do check-call, can either c/c or c/r turn. Check-shove river and imho not close. Especially when you've under-repped on the flop and shouldn't have much Jx on river.

FWIW villian may have had a read you don't tend to c/r top pair hands in previous similar spots. Once you c/c he should be way ahead of your range and be looking to gii over turn/river with larger sizing - but he played a bit safe for some reason. tbh he prob lost significant EV against a typical BB range.

Note: even if Hero does c/r here, 99 calls the c/r, calls 1/3pot again ott and has a 4bb +EV call on the river when we jam, because we should also be jamming some 8x draws that hit river. So we don't need to worry about scaring him off.

75% of our Jx or it CR J9 75% of the time? I thought it was the latter, initially.

Also if you have the time and interest does the flop CR % change when our kicker is Q-A? I’d be interested to know.

About 70% of all Jx. J9 is about 60%. AJ (if we have it) is 99.
KJ is 64.
JT is 68.
J8 is 17
J7 is 18
J6 is 73
J4 is 39
J3 is 41

I guess when we block 87, PIO wants us to call, hoping Villain can pair, or pick up a draw to keep firing.

When we turn trip PIO check raises less now. Only about 55%. I think (as I said earlier) this will be 'face up' for most humans, so it is hard to get action from worse.

Thanks a lot, man. Super interesting to see the discrepancies between the Jx

Yes. Understanding why it mixes the way it does is not nearly as important as realizing we do check raise here, and a lot.

I suspect a Jack high board gets a fair amount more check raises than a similar Qxx or Kxx board as well. I'll check on that later...

I was talking about this particular hand.
c/r flop is also possible, but in this particular hand c/r flop looks strong in hands up so I would have slow play this to turn, where is better snr

If it looks so strong, you need to be check raising a lot of your air/gutters/bdfd type hands. From a theory POV, check raising one pair in this spot should not look strong.

Proving that I have too much time on my hands, I took a look at this spot, and changed the top card on the flop, from 9-K.

Overall check raise percentage:

9 22.6
T 25.2
J 29.1
Q 28.6
K 24.4

Percentage of top pair that is check raising:

9 58.0
T 67.0
J 76.0
Q 75.0
K 60.2

So the Jack high flop is the one that gets check raised the most, and most often when holding top pair. It's a good combination of protection/value.

When the top card is down to a 9, there is a great chance of running into top pair.

(All flop were X52r. SPR 5. Button vs BB). Notice that with the 952, we introduce gut shots. I'd have thought that would mean more check raising of top pair, since we have more draws to bluff with, but I guess running into an overpair is a bigger problem.

That's a great insight. Makes perfect sense too. I might check how the c/r frequency changes from high to low stack depth.

I remember Park c/r exactly this type of tp hand at around 25BB - 30BB in the recent WSOP ME FT. Happened in the first couple of hours from memory.