$540 onlineament, too nitty fold? - MTT Poker Strategy - Multi Table Tournament Poker Forum

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$540 onlineament, too nitty fold?

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03-19-2018 , 02:06 AM

busto23

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 2,955

We're playing a $500k gtd, $540 buyin online, 15 players left out of 930, around 100k for first, stacks are pretty shallow (avg stack is 30 bbs), we're chip leader at this point.

Villain is playing 25/20, with 10.2 3-bet over a 150-hand sample (all this tournament.)

WPN, 15,000/30,000 blinds, 3,000 ante No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 7 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: 772,885 (25.8 bb)
BB: 474,664 (15.8 bb)
MP1: 835,272 (27.8 bb)
Hero (MP2): 1,699,494 (56.6 bb)
MP3: 732,209 (24.4 bb)
CO: 963,283 (32.1 bb)
BTN: 66,308 (2.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 9

MP1 folds, Hero raises to 60,000, 3 folds, SB raises to 769,885 and is all-in, BB folds, Hero ?

If this were not so close to FT of a big major I would probably snap call but as it is I'm pondering. What's an optimal calling range here? Is it okay to let them exploit us by shoving so large over a min raise?

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03-19-2018 , 03:52 AM

ExploitedHSTeen

stranger

Join Date: Mar 2018 Posts: 1

Based on the ICM pressure you can use as the big stack I think this is an easy fold. Villains range should be something along the line of TT+, AQo+, AJs+.
You are almost never ahead and a flip at this point is too high variance for my taste.
Rather see a slightly nitty fold and keep using the advantage of the CL and chip up around the FT-bubble.

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03-19-2018 , 06:46 AM

swissodds

adept

Join Date: Apr 2016 Posts: 1,103

To me, V stats dont appear to be that nitty. But i dont might folding like a nit even if i doubt V range doesnt include hands we crush. Because if V is correctly 3b jamming AJ pre in that spot, he s also definitely shoving 66-77-88 (might even shove 55 here) which we have dominated.
Even if we lose, we still have a strong 30biggs stack.
But as said tho, i am ok with a nitty icm fold (even if at that stage, 15 left, ICM isnt so big of a factor yet) to preserve our chip advantage to exerce pressure on oppos.

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03-19-2018 , 04:15 PM

keyanaut

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2010 Posts: 440

What % of his 3bet range was weighted towards shipping from the button, sb, and bb?

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03-20-2018 , 11:44 AM

poloplaya1414

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 1,972

I think this is a snap call.

We need 44% to call. If villain jams 77+, AJ+, KQ, that gets us there, and I would expect villain to shove quite a bit wider than that.

ICM pressure isn't that significant around the 15-player mark.

I call 88+, AJ+ and KQs here.

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03-21-2018 , 10:57 PM

busto23

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 2,955

Quote:

Originally Posted by keyanaut

What % of his 3bet range was weighted towards shipping from the button, sb, and bb?

150 hand sample can't really be accurate for much except VPIP/PFR stats basically.

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03-22-2018 , 05:44 AM

Satory

newbie

Join Date: Jun 2017 Posts: 33

Quote:

Originally Posted by poloplaya1414

With a 25bb stack from the SB facing min-reiz I believe we can exclude the bottom part of the mentioned jam range. So I expect we are on a flip at best, so the right play is fold here.

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03-22-2018 , 10:33 AM

persianpunisher

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2014 Posts: 2,818

Quote:

Originally Posted by poloplaya1414

Agreed, although I'd probably fold AJo and maybe 88. 99 is pretty fist pump.

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03-22-2018 , 03:25 PM

vyken111

grinder

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 572

First of all, raise bigger. You should be making it 2.5bb at least.

My 3-bet jamming range in that spot with 25bb against an EP raise is pretty tight. AJ+, 1010+. It's not until I get under 20BB that I would be shoving A10, 77+.

I think this is a fold. If he had < 20bb I would call. I think those 5 bb do make a big difference. People generally aren't shoving 25bb without a premium hand.

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