Hi guys,

I have a question for a hand in a $530 qualifier to the partypoker millions 5,3k mtt.

There were 247 entrants and we played for 23 tickets.

There were 32 Players left and i had a stack of 360k. The blinds were 22,5k/45k, so i had 8 BB.

My Chips Position in the tourney was the 28 place.

We were 6 players at the table with the following stack sizes:

MP: 531k -> Fold
HJ: 575k -> Fold
CO: 1421k -> Jams All-In
BU: 360k -> HERO with TT
SB: 732k
BB: 604k

So, to reach one of the 23 tickets I need definitely a double up. The other players except the CO who is the chipleader, can’t lose an Allin otherwise they are in a very bad position to reach a ticket.

At the moment the player in place 23 has a stack of 550k.

In the last hour the game was extremely tight, all players only jam or fold. There were no more raises. Half an hour ago the Chipleader called a 30BB Jam with QQ and doubled against AQo.

So in this situation the CO jams his big stack (he made a lot of pressure) and I have to decide what to do with my TT. If I call and win, I have a stack of 800k and move in the chipcount to place 14 and have a very good chance to win a ticket.

Question:

Should I CALL because I anyway need a double up and have a strong hand? (Btw, TT was way the best hand for an hour)

Or should I FOLD and try to make chips by pushing first in against the other stacks except the chipleader? But then which hands you call here, only AA and KK?

Thanks for your thoughts!

graebsch

Tough spot. I guess it dépends on the kind of pressure CO is applying. If he'll do that move with a hand like 78s, I guess I'd call. If he only does it with face cards, I'd fold. Need to see what is exactly his PFR / shove frequency to take a decision here

he played 18/11 over 65 hands.
but these where a lot of only shove/fold hands the last hour.

Interesting spot. Curious, what the experienced players will say. I would call because:

1) The bubble can go forever in such satellites and with 8BB you are almost dead

2) You are flipping (which you have the odds for) against a super strong range and maybe even ahead if his range is wider e.g. including small pairs and at the same time excluding the monsters like KK+ (because he might just raise them to induce a shove)

3) you are way ahead against a GTO shoving range (~35%) for 15 effective bb from the cut-off (although I doubt that he would shove that wide). So a call can not be "wrong" (also since you said, that he was exerting pressure, I would assume that he is not pushing JJ+ only here)

I'd fold. He is playing only his goods hands. Yes there is a small chance you have him dominated but too big of a chance you're flipping and there is also a slight chance for you to be dominated.

Most of the time you are flipping and you don't wanna flip when more than 2/3rd of the players will make it to the ticket.

Also you only need to "pass" 3 shoves to double also.

I'll cry a bit and fold. that is the best hand I'll fold here though.

What do yo mean by that?

yeah go with it and 8bb.
Its reasonable to assume he`s capped when they show heaps and you`re doing very well against his shove range.

he means that by shoving 3 times i can collect nearly the same amount of chips with blinds and antes as with a double up by calling.

He can definitely be shoving 99 and below here. He's probably shoving KQ+, AJ+ so for 8bb's I think it's a straightforward call.

Can't fold for 8bb this far away

23/32 there are so much to play, you haven't anything secured. You have to get some double anyway. If u pass blind you have 6bb left and calling ranges to increase dramatically.
Maybe I consider UTG raise, but co-raise I snap
I think co shove is quite wide there,any pair, overs

I'm shoving here with TT. There are a number of Ax suited hands that CO can have. He may very well be shoving any A here. Also he may be shoving any PP. He has only 3 blinds...

Our hope is that we can get AJ/KQ behind us to fold (thats why I don't call here).

You are missing a digit, he has 30ish blinds.

I'd call too, but I am no sat expert.

Thanks, missed that last "1"...

I think this comes down to what range we have for CO... And what we think our chances are of cashing if we don't call.

I think our chances of folding and cashing are probably around 40% to 45%.

And if we double up here our chances probably increase to 90%. So we would need to to have at least 45% to 50% equity to call.

Is our equity>50% if we call? That depends on whether or not 66-99/AT are in CO's range. I would argue that those hands are in CO's range and that our overall equity is somewhere near or above 50%.

I would call. But I can understand a fold here as well. I think it is close.

I’d call
Bubble bursted at 65k/130k blinds when i played this so ur still very far away.

more like 10% i think...

No antes? Snap call either way.

Lol, what? Absolutely not.

Why does this thread get bumped
Snap TT

ya snap call