This is a spot that I was looking at and just want to make sure.

3 spots paid ($5,000 seat), 4th spot is $2,500.

UTG has 3.4BB
Hero is OTB with 3.42 BB
SB has 23BB
BB has 3.4BB

blinds are 2,500/5,000 with 500 ante


Preflop: Hero has AK OTB
UTG folds, Hero?

Is this an easy fold or does it depend on somethings (on how loose SB is)? If we can shove and it gets through we would be in excellent shape. Comments please

I’m going with it for sure w these stack sizes.

How soon do the blinds go up? I've been in a ton of similar situations in these WSOP sats - my instinct says we have to shove. We might not get another opportunity that's anywhere close to this, whilst the other stacks could chip-up leaving us having to go all-in with junk. Then again, there's a very good chance one of the other stacks will bust before us and there's our dilemma. I have no idea how to determine this mathematically, but my instinct is saying that shove does better on average than fold (for whatever that's worth, but it normally serves me pretty well in these)

I do think SB's vpip in this spot matters a lot. If there's a reasonable chance SB folds, then jam all day long. If SB is snapping off everything and bullying every pot pf, I'd lean towards fold, especially if BB was at 3.4BBs before posting.

Im jamming, stacks too close, u wont get another opportunity like this. Some fold equity since CL is sb.

+1, good post

If you run this through an ICM calculator and let SB egregiously oversnap you're gonna see you wanna start to jam fewer and fewer combos.

That being said, I mean really though in theory and in practice it would be a terrible fold. You'd need a read that SB just can't help himself and is snapping more less literally anything.

In reality you get like 25-28% ships here and he can't really snap wider than like 44+, A7s+, A8o+, KQs so he'd have to be absurdly out of line to justify not taking this spot.

And it really depends on how often SB will give BB a walk or shove 100%.

Thanks for the comments. The result was that I folded and SB proceeded to shove every hand. The next orbit Sb shoved and BB called, SB won. We won the seat.

I thought this was pretty close, I just though that SB might be calling me with ATC

Congrats!

I don't think SB is calling with any two. But I do think SB is shoving any two if you fold.

All things being equal you have a 67% chance of full cashing the satellite based on stack sizes.

But they aren't equal. Both of your opponents would have to win a hand at some point in order to finish ahead of you, as they both hit the blinds before you.

So lets say they have about a 67% chance of winning whatever hand they choose to play assuming the SB is shoving any two cards OTB and SB (its probably closer to 60% but for the sake of argument). So both of them would win less than half the time (44%). And then it would be your turn to double up and survive. In your case you might be about 50% overall to survive (you might be up against 2 people some of the time). So that gives you about a 22% chance of losing.

AKs is not a 78% favorite against the hands that SB would call with. Nor is it close really. And even if SB folds if the BB has any pair they are calling and would be the slight favorite. Its +EV to shove with AKs of course. But you don't really need the chips at this point because both opponents expire before you do.

Having said all of that I would have shoved. Because in non-satellites I do believe we have to gain chips to move up the ladder and this is a prime opportunity. And I suck at satellites.

But I am currently reading a book on satellites and I believe that in this spot we need a hand that will be at 80% or more to win vs calls. I think our shoving range might be AA or KK+.

The more I think about this, the more I'm convinced that SB's strategy to raise every pot here is wrong. It would be absolutely correct in a traditional tournament where there is a pay raise for each place, but here 1st and 3rd have exactly the same payoff. It is virtually impossible for SB to finish in 4th if he just folds every hand -- and that just has to be the correct play -- at least until some point where the stacks aren't so unbalanced.

That leads to a fascinating theoretical dynamic. I think that if you game out this scenerio each player should fold every hand to the BB -- as you only lose by being the first one knocked out and you should do everything in your power to not be that guy. And given that 3 out of 4 stacks are essentially even and very short, I don't even think increasing blinds every level changes this dynamic. At some point, I guess, the antes become big enough that the 3 short stacks are all-in and it just becomes a crap shoot, but why risk it before then, especially since one (or ideally two) of the short stacks might get invovled in a pot before then.

I should add this is very much like the prisoner's dilemma in game theory. Ideally, the short stacks would want to raise and pick up the blinds and antes -- so that they are no longer the shortest stack. But we don't know if we're going to get any calls, so the risk becomes too high, especially if we think the other players haven't figured this out and might tangle.

I think it’s a shove in any seat but the one you are sitting in - immediate left of the big stack four handed when everyone else is short as **** is the catbird seat. And it’s the only real remaining money bubble of the tournament because it’s a satellite......