2400/1200/2400 (BB ante), 85K eff

V is solid TAG, defends blinds wide but otherwise plays snug range. Usually wins at showdown. Has 85K and I barely cover with ~90K.

V in UTG opens to 5K
I 3b to 14K in MP1 with JJ
Only V calls

Flop (34K):322
V checks, I check 11K, V calls

Turn (56K): 8
V checks, I bet 21K, V calls

River (98K): 4
V checks with 40K behind, Hero?

Maybe relevant history- 30 mins earlier, I made V fold AQ on ATT-blank-blank when I call pre, check-raise turn and overbet jam river.

Is this an easy jam for value, given that V has a lot of 99, TT here? He should be raising turn or leading river with 88, and raising flop with AQ. I expecting him to jam all AK, most KK/AA. Unclear at what frequency he's flatting QQ or slowplaying KK/AA, but shouldn't be very high at our effective stack depths.

Yes Jam the river. You are missing too much value. If the villain slow played AA/KK/QQ WP by them.

Otherwise, there are other hands that will call you and you will gaining chips. Even though you say villain is "Solid" it's a $500 BI tournament. They might be calling you down with a smaller pp besides TT and 99.

^^respectfully disagree

Entirely depends on whether he has {66, 77} in his range and if you think he can hero. For sure he has {99, TT} but even those aren't a 100% hero OTR vs a jam, any competent V can explo fold those to a triple (actually, not even sure that'd be an explo--let me run this in PIO). We're targeting a really narrow range for what's undoubtedly THIN value.

It doesn't take a genius to flat the 3bet w/ {AA, KK} esp if he's conscious of his image and knows (righfully so), a 4bet looks totally nutted. So we really are looking for a big hero call from a not-too-large range of hands, some of which may not even be in his range (some butthole-tight V's will just muck {66, 77} pre to the reraise and move on)

Think you've done pretty good getting a "TAG" (whatever that means to you in practice) to get him to pump in 20bb. Check it back IMO.

Villain has 46K in the pot with 40K behind, so with 17BB left he nearly became pot committed when he called the turn bet. Now he needs to call 40K to win 170K pot so he needs 23% equity, which he probably has with any made hand since hero's range includes AKs and Ahxh and some Khxh along with 77 and 99. If he's calling 20K then he's calling 40K so if we're going for value we might as well shove. But, in practice I probably check back a lot figuring that most of villain's range that we beat is either missed draws or small pairs that will fold and we'll only get called by better.

I jam. By now his range should be weighted to 2 pr hands and he would have gotten more in pf with AA-QQ. We are ahead of a range that will call with worse enough to justify the shove. I base this largely on V's opportunity to easily c/r the turn all in with his monsters.

Agree with jl121.

Would much prefer to ship turn if going for max value & max balance.

U guys r a bunch of weaktight nits this is a super standard shove. Could be beat ldo but ur good way more often than not and its less than 1/2 psb. You really think in practice he's calling down s bluffcatcher to fold to less than 1/2 psb on that river. No way. If he has u beat then he played it terrible anyway as money should've got in earlier.

As a weaktight nit I would just like to say that QQ is firmly in villain's range. A TAG who opens UTG and then gets raised might very well play QQ this way in order to keep in all of our bluffs and get the most out of 99-JJ.

Having said that I do think that TT is in villain's range as well and would probably call down our river shove, as would 99 to a lesser extent.

What I look at here is what is my table image? If I have been caught bluffing (especially after a 3-bet), I would shove here. If I have always had it and never shown a bluff, I might very well check it back.

Gone in earlier for what?

Flat AA pre. Call-call-call-easy game.

*sigh* i don't even know why I commented in the first place

Good points. I agree villain can have QQ+. But why are we betting turn to check back this river? doesn't make any sense. With 1/2 PSB left we have to assume that villain isn't calling the turn with a bluff catcher to fold on that river at least not very often.

I do think it's a standard turn bet but I think that BECAUSE river is an easy shove.

From a strategical standpoint, if ur scared of QQ+ on a brick river then you should be scared of those hands on the turn.

If we had 1PSB left on the river then I think it's a closer spot, quite possibly a check back, but for 1/2 PSB it's going to be incredibly difficult for V to fold his bluff catchers that peeled turn. So if you think JJ is strong enough to bet on the turn (i agree it is) then why are you scared to shove 1/2 pot on a brick river? doesn't make any sense, to me at least.

Because villain has so little behind I think it makes the decision to jam pretty simple. If he had 80-90K then I like checking more.

In general when I have have TPTK or an overpair I get paid on 2 streets but not 3 post flop.

The reason why I prefer to bet the turn rather than the river when I bet 2 streets is often because of the texture of the board. In this case there are draws on the flop, so If I want to get paid off on 2 streets it has to be the flop and the turn. Also, if the flush card comes I may have the opportunity to check it back. In this case though, with only half a pot sized bet left by the river, I can be pretty sure that if the flush card comes and villain has the flush then he will shove the river.

In this hand I think that villain can have AA/KK/88 some of the time and play passively like this. Villain can have QQ and play it like this a lot. On the other side Villain can play TT and 99 like this all day.

So the final question is how frequently will villain pay off 3 bets postflop with TT and 99? I would guess 4 or 5 out of 6 TT combos and 3 out of 6 99 combos. And how often would he play QQ this way? Maybe 4 or 5 out of 6 combos. And AA/KK? Maybe 1 or 2 combos. So it is very close. That is why I am looking at my image at this table. If I haven't shown a bluff to this point I think that it is more likely that TT and especially 99 will fold to a bet.

It is true that this is a standard spot to see a shove , but in my experience the villain will either snap you off or fold. In other words, it is a spot where nothing that you beat is likely to call, and nothing that beats you is likely to fold.

As Mr Rick points out, you can get villain to pay off two streets here with losers but rarely three. So why not check back the river, since you have little to gain and much to lose with a shove.

Showdown value is a forgotten concept in today's game.

When villain has less than 1/2 pot effective and the draws (other than A5s) brick, it's going to be very hard for villain to fold a decent pair here.

I also think at these stacks villain should be weighted to 4-bet his premiums pre OOP other than maybe trapping AA, so I'm really never worried about QQ or KK here. And AA w/o hearts may elect occasionally to raise somewhere along the way hoping to stack a worse overpair or a strong flush draw. So we're really only worried about infrequent AA, 88, 33 and 22, while villain can have all the TT/99 and maybe even some 8x with clubs and/or flush draws that floated flop. And if villain has 77 or 66 without hearts they might be willing to bluff catch with those hands occasionally.

So for those reason, I do think we can jam here pretty profitably. If we were considerably deeper here, I do think the villain would be able to fold some percentage of those worse hands plus is more likely to play stuff like QQ/KK in this manner, (i.e., flat a 3-bet and then call all the way down) which would lead me to want to take showdown value more.

2 observations:

Why didn't V c/r the turn with AA/KK if he had it? I can see QQ not but the other 2 have to have some %>0 of shoving the turn esp. given the stack sizes. I would interpret his turn call as significantly reducing the probability of him having AA or KK.


Given we 3! pf and have bet every opportunity since, jamming river may get a hero fold out of QQ.

Like I said, if we had a PSB left i think checking is likely correct as I dont want to bet 1/2 my stack and it's unlikely V will pay off a PSB, but with less than a 1/2 PSB left V is supposed to pay u off with most of his bluff catchers. It's just simple math really.

Another way to look at it, from a theory/gto standpoint: Villain doesn't have to be worried about having a capped range when there's less than 1/2 PSB left, if there's a PSB left that's a different story. Point is, with AA/KK villain should be chk/shoving turn, no point in protecting ur range with such a low SPR. Thus in theory, JJ should be considered the effective nuts. The time for pot controlling was the turn if you wanted to, on the river there's really little merit to checking. If villain shows up with a better hand then he played it poorly and money shouldve gone in on the turn anyway.

THANK YOU!!!! That is what I was trying to say in all of my posts in this thread.

The reason is simple, to let the aggressor jam river as a bluff or for thin value.

Whether he can expect the aggressor to bluff with only 0.5 behind is a separate question but lets not act like the flatter has an obligation to alert the 3bettor that he's strong. As someone who triple barrel punts hella stacks, that would be an extremely easy game to play (and it is, most people tell you not to bluff river when zomg flush drawz by raising turn).

I think the OP labeling this person a TAG is important. A TAG is generally not a nit, a TAG is someone who plays a tighter than normal ranges but plays those hands aggressively. A lot of the assumptions people are making here (that this player would not bet 4-bet QQ pre, would not c/r his big overpairs on the flop or turn) don't seem to make a lot of sense to me based on how I've seen other TAG's play.

+1.

Also think people here give a live V way too much credit. This is only a $500 BI live donkament. Reads matter more here since we don't get a HU display.

We need to be good more than 1/2 of the time here, as we still have a playable stack left if we check, and will be down to 2BB if we jam and lose.

I check, and will still be quite happy winning pot when Villain shows TT.

Of course if you think that villain is usually going to call off his last 40K with losers then you don't need to understand Showdown Value to play the hand, go ahead and shove the river. But if you think like I do that villain will fold all the hands you beat and only call you with hands that beat yours, then Showdown Value is worth considering it here. Based on what I've read on various threads here I've come to believe that this useful concept has been largely forgotten.

https://www.pokerstrategy.com/glossa...wn-value_2042/

15k on flop and shove turn, then we won't all have to hem and haw about riv

Poker is not dead. Who said poker is dead, poker is not dead.