Day 2 and 49 players left in Genting Poker Series Main Event in Birmingham.
26 cash so nowhere near the bubble.

We are 9 handed and Blinds are 1.5k-3k with a 3k Button ante.

I have 29k in the SB.

UTG is a youngish Chinese kid who hasn’t played a hand in the ~two orbits I’ve been at the table and has around 150k.

He opens to 6k.

It is folded to me with KQo and I decide to FLAT for an extra 4.5k. The BB has about 40k and is quite a tight player. He folds.

21k in pot.
We go heads-up to 996cc (I have Qc).

I check, he checks.

The turn is the Th for 996Tcc.

I move all-in for 23k.

I was trying to get him to fold A high and possibly 22-55 (though he may bet those hands on flop). If he calls I might have up to 10 outs.


1) Pre-flop - I can honestly make cases for all 3 options. Fold, flat or ship.
2) Shove turn? Bet turn? Check call turn? Check fold turn?

Thanks

fold pre flop , call will lose tons vs a utg range

3bet jam pre vs mp and later

Would like to know if there is consensus around this - I’m getting 7 to 1.

If you know BB is tight, a stop-n-go is a decent option with your holding. It has more FE OTF but you gotta open-rip the flop quickly.

As played, I'm torn. With no good info on V, I might check/decide turn since you picked up 4 additional outs.

With 10bbs we want to be RFI-jamming in order to maximize FE, not calling & seeing flops. This mistake is even worse considering you're OOP.

Also, KQ is easily dominated against an UTG range (as previously mentioned in this thread).

Lastly, he's never folding any pair or A-high to your 8bb shove post-flop when he's nearly getting 2:1 odds to call and started with 50bbs.

Don't try to get too cute when you're short stacked like this. You should be in push-fold mode.

10bb isn't too shallow to defend your BB, SB likely best to just play jam or fold.

He needs to be opening ~18% for KQo to be even just a breakeven ship, I'm folding.

He's in the SB, not the BB. Flatting is literally the WORST of the 3 options here.

And that's what my understanding of the spot was

And if you're trying to say we cant defend BB this shallow, you're wrong.

Nobody said that 10bbs was too shallow to defend the BB. My point was that the flat leaves us very little fold equity, both during and after the hand. In addition, we'd be OOP, short-stacked, and lacking the initiative in the hand. These factors don't lead to a winning strategy.

Agree. Hence:

Agree with most here, at 10bbs we should be shoving or folding pre. I would lean fold against an utg open here unless the villian was super agg.

What do you do here if villian Cbets 1/3rd pot or more? Hopefully pitch. Hands like this, either I wanna get it aipf at such a shallow stack or folding pre against a tang that is stronger than mine (utg player who we have stated is not known to be super aggressive).

Pretty sure you're calling 4.5k to win 13.5k...so 3:1. This is an especially awful call given that BB has a reshove stack of 13 BBs.

From SB we shouldn't be speculating with flats pre with this stack. Shove or fold as many have said, and vs. a UTG open, it's a fold.

Never flatting. You're going to miss the flop 2/3 of the time and be dominated some portion of the other 1/3. Huge waste of chips and decreased fold equity on future steal opportunities.

With 10BB you are in push/fold mode and the only notable exceptions to this are:

1. BB defends for 1BB more with a wide range of hands (closing action, insane odds)
2. late stages high stakes satellites where everyone is <20BB and min raises even from 10BB stacks generate almost as much FE as an open shove

other than that find a good spot and rip it according to Jen: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...hl=en_US#gid=3

Another perspective... with his action where he flatted pre

Should a jam post flop with 996cc board help to get some fold-equity? If UTG has anything like 22-55 or AK\AQ kind of hand, he will fold.

Thoughts?

Thanks for the responses guys. Yeah Fro_Dude I noticed that mistype on the odds yesterday but it was too late to edit.

I guess I haven’t appreciated the vast difference between SB and BB in terms of flatting a shortstack pre. Much simpler to fold and then I have an orbit to find the push (although I will have 9bbs because of Button ante.

UTG should never be folding any of those hands when facing a shove of 23k into 18k (getting almost 2:1)