Maybe this is a BBV post, but I dont think the line check thread gets used so I figured I'd just create a new thread.

We're never doing anything but 4b GII here, right? Any thoughts about expo folding given the 3b size/eff stack sizes + the bb stack? Hope your Sundays went better than mine

iPoker - $150+$12|<> NL - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: 15.28 BB (VPIP: 10.53, PFR: 5.56, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 19)
UTG+1: 37.55 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 10.71, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 28)
MP: 10.33 BB (VPIP: 7.14, PFR: 7.41, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 28)
Hero (MP+1): 33.81 BB
CO: 47.14 BB (VPIP: 25.93, PFR: 18.52, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 28)
BTN: 17.03 BB (VPIP: 21.43, PFR: 21.43, 3Bet Preflop: 15.38, Hands: 28)
SB: 33.07 BB (VPIP: 35.71, PFR: 38.46, 3Bet Preflop: 33.33, Hands: 28)
BB: 14.67 BB (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 12.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 28)

8 players post ante of 0.1 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.3 BB) Hero has Q A

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, SB raises to 6.12 BB, fold, Hero raises to 33.71 BB, SB calls 26.85 BB

Flop: (67.73 BB, 2 players) Q 8 6

Turn: (67.73 BB, 2 players) K

River: (67.73 BB, 2 players) 5

Hero shows Q A (One Pair, Queens)
(Pre 24%, Flop 82%, Turn 5%)
SB shows A K (One Pair, Kings)
(Pre 76%, Flop 18%, Turn 95%)
Hero wins 0.74 BB
SB wins 67.73 BB

Jam is def fine, especially against someone with those stats, even if it's a small sample.

You could argue for a flat. I'm not folding tho.

I like to flat 3-bets sometimes with hands like A-J and A-Q, you have a much more powerful hand than Villain expects you to flat with. But I can't fault you for getting it in pre against AK. I've done that myself many times, including today in a zoom tournament on Pokerstars.

I prefer a flat actually. I don't think we're getting called by AJ and we're definitely getting called by AK when we 4b. With 25bb I jam but feel like we're a little too deep here.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

I think I also lean towards flat unless we have some kind of history where we think villain might call us off with AJ

Seems close, anytime you're going to create an SPR of ~2 with a call (which greatly limits our post-flop maneuverability) I think we may be close to shove/fold mode. And versus an aggro villain I'd lean shove. If we were deeper - even 45 BB or so - I'd say this is a clear call, and if we were a bit shallower it's a clear shove.

My default here is flat the 3b.

I agree a lot with the flat AQs and jam AQo idea.

I guess in particular I'm thinking stack sizes are getting to that point where its very hard for people to have bluffs. Plus with the bb being so short this seems significantly weighted towards value, as he's priced in to calling off a bb jam with any two here. With that in mind do we give more credit to this 3b? Or does the positional (lp vs sb) dynamic + the players stats still mean we can stick it in here with AQo?

Plyr dependent...HJ vs. BTN with 30-35 bbs eff I reship a lot.

I agree that he doesn't have pure bluffs here a lot, but I expect him to be 3betting a fairly wide linear range that you're well ahead of. The fact that BB has 14 BBs makes it a lot harder for SB to flat with a hand like ATo or 98s, so he'll likely 3bet those hands instead.

Sample size is too small to make you think that villain is as loose as he seems. Because of the lack of disparity between VPIP and PFR, my assumption is that he's 90% a reg who had a decent streak of hands and 10% a maniac.

I think a jam is a bluff at this stack size which actually may not be a bad play. But I think I prefer flatting as we are in position and we don't have solid read yet.

jam

Yeah but I think we can safely it’s unlikely that he’s a total nit. You’re right that we can’t say for sure whether he’s running hot or a maniac.

Wish there weren't results in the OP and all these flatting saps wouldn't be saying to.

I Agree. However, even though there's not a lot of information, use it as good as you can.
I would check the amount of hands (situations) on which the 33,3% 3 BET PF is based on. If it's based on 12 hands (4/12), while far from statistically significant, I'm inclined to put some importance to it => jam
If it's 3 (1/3), ignore stats obviously => flat imo

In abscense of info, i'm not comfortable at all 4 bet jamming here with 33BB. Flat instead.

it actually makes no difference whether its 3 hands or 12 hands. while i agree that you have to draw the line somewhere this is def not it. deviating from the std play there (jam) because of „reads“ that are based on basically no sample size is going to lead to a guessing game.

Yes, the bigger sample size does make a huge statistical difference.

I will illustrate with an example.

Assume villain has a tight 3 bet range, typically around 5%. If he's only 3 betting 5 out of 100 hands, notice how unlikely it is for him to have 3 betted 4 out of 12 random hands.
As a result, villain in question is very likely to 3 bet light.

The same reasoning does not apply when we have 1/3 in stead of 4/12.