Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Mid-High Stakes MTT Discussion and analysis of mid-high stakes MTT strategy

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 02-24-2018, 09:25 PM   #1
jc315
adept
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
Posts: 887
$460 wsop side event hand

Hero (Bb ~100k): young Asian guy. Image is likely a typical tight aggressive player. Hero just ran it up and is now prob top 10 stack.

Villain (mp ~88k): 70+ year old. Sort of plays like a typical older man,
but I’ve seen him do weird stuff like open 55 to 4x from EP and then pot an A62 flop.

EP - playing like 15k

~160 left out of 450 and 60 pay so a while to go. Average stack is prob like 30k


OTTH:

600/1200

EP opens to 3k.
MP calls
Hero calls with 55 from BB

Flop (~12k) 9d5s2s
Hero checks
Ep bets 5k
Villain calls
Hero x/r 18k
EP tank folds (Lol)
Villain thinks and calls

Turn (53k) 8h
Hero bets 20k
Villain snap shoves ~66k

Hero? Not sure if this is a trivial decision, I don’t really play tournaments
jc315 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-24-2018, 09:58 PM   #2
HawkesDave
adept
 
Join Date: Jul 2016
Posts: 887
Re: $460 wsop side event hand

Snap call.

If you got coolered by a bigger set or some sort of 76 that floated the flop, that's poker.

98 is possible and all sorts of spade/straight/pair combo draws that can try to bluff shove here.

You can expect to lose a decent amount of the time but you can't fold here imo.
HawkesDave is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-25-2018, 03:42 AM   #3
PhatPots
veteran
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Toronto
Posts: 3,195
Re: $460 wsop side event hand

This is a fist pump call. If he hit a gutter on the turn, good luck to him. You are worried about a set of 9s? think of all the other random hands he could have that you beat.
PhatPots is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-25-2018, 02:17 PM   #4
2pairsof2s
adept
 
2pairsof2s's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: Cashier screen at Pokerstars
Posts: 981
Re: $460 wsop side event hand

I'm making a crying call here. No fist-pumping. I think Villain is going to have exactly 7/6 suited spades here more often than not, having flatted two bets on the flop and being the player you describe (OMC with some unorthodox moves and perhaps some skills.)

He still has enough bluffs and "other" hands (A-9 spades? set of 222s?) that I think you have to call. At least you should still have ten outs for the full house or quads on the river. You probably need to hit one of them.

PS. I'd bet bigger on the check-raise. You are asking him to pay 13k for a chance to win 40k. You are giving him a pretty good price on his draws.
2pairsof2s is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-25-2018, 07:00 PM   #5
SHIP_DAT
enthusiast
 
Join Date: Feb 2018
Posts: 65
Re: $460 wsop side event hand

He called the c/r don't think he hardly ever shows up with the gutter here. Your goal after the flop is to get everything in, and he just did it for you. If he's got 99 oh well.
SHIP_DAT is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-25-2018, 07:23 PM   #6
jc315
adept
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
Posts: 887
Re: $460 wsop side event hand

Quote:
Originally Posted by PhatPots View Post
think of all the other random hands he could have that you beat.
i have a hard time coming up with a ton of random hands a 75 year old shows up with here.

how often does some 75 year old put in his stack here with a hand i beat? this is an honest question. we were both prob top 10 in chips at this point.

thanks for the responses all. like i said, i dont play many tournaments and so this was just a sanity check.

Spoiler:
jc315 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-26-2018, 02:31 PM   #7
vyken111
grinder
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 557
Re: $460 wsop side event hand

Quote:
Originally Posted by jc315 View Post
i have a hard time coming up with a ton of random hands a 75 year old shows up with here.

how often does some 75 year old put in his stack here with a hand i beat? this is an honest question. we were both prob top 10 in chips at this point.

thanks for the responses all. like i said, i dont play many tournaments and so this was just a sanity check.

Spoiler:
It's a snap call. That's poker.

Many hands on these boards are people playing OK/good but running into the very top of the opponent's range. You want people calling big check raises drawing to two outs. It happens.
vyken111 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-26-2018, 04:48 PM   #8
jc315
adept
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
Posts: 887
Re: $460 wsop side event hand

Quote:
Originally Posted by vyken111 View Post
It's a snap call. That's poker.

Many hands on these boards are people playing OK/good but running into the very top of the opponent's range. You want people calling big check raises drawing to two outs. It happens.
i never mentioned not wanting a call. i check raised flop hoping to get players to continue.

the question still remains what hands is a 75 year old man shoving with, with a top 10 chip stack out of 150+ players left, that we beat.

im not trying to advocate for a fold. im asking for some rationalization, thats all. i understand we have a set. i understand that we have toward the top of our range (though we have all combos of sets, 76ss, and some hands like A3ss, A2ss for combo draws) - but im not playing top tier players here. this villain type i wouldnt describe as competent, and i think i can play extremely exploitatively in these spots.
jc315 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-27-2018, 10:54 PM   #9
Beachman42
Pooh-Bah
 
Beachman42's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: Havana Daydreamin'
Posts: 3,949
Re: $460 wsop side event hand

V didn't realize how very lucky he was - until he did. OMP sometimes spite calls the young'uns. Take comfort in the fact that he either punted off all his chips when he got hungry or tired or *begged* for a chop when the final table sat.
Beachman42 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-28-2018, 02:07 PM   #10
OutPlayU27
old hand
 
OutPlayU27's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2013
Posts: 1,685
Re: $460 wsop side event hand

Even if he shows us here 76, mathematically is incorect to fold.
Also givin the nature of the MTT, and that V prob doesn´t know what his doing , makes this a fist pump call, i mean c´mon...
OutPlayU27 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-05-2018, 09:51 AM   #11
swissodds
journeyman
 
swissodds's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2016
Location: Ministry of EV
Posts: 306
Re: $460 wsop side event hand

Call - muck vul sick turn
A bad flop decision brought him to a turned set.
nothing you did wrong.
your c/r sizing was good. he did bad by calling flop
Cheers and gg
swissodds is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-05-2018, 08:47 PM   #12
PhatPots
veteran
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Toronto
Posts: 3,195
Re: $460 wsop side event hand

Quote:
Originally Posted by jc315 View Post

the question still remains what hands is a 75 year old man shoving with, with a top 10 chip stack out of 150+ players left, that we beat.
.

Villain can have any overpair. he might have TT and think he is protecting his hand. He might have turned 2 pair. He can have a lower set that he decided to get it in on almost any turn card. He might have AKs/AQs/AJs and think you will fold to his big all-in. (Yes, even older players occasionally make aggressive plays).
PhatPots is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-05-2018, 10:30 PM   #13
jc315
adept
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
Posts: 887
Re: $460 wsop side event hand

im just unconvinced that villain ever plays TT like this. i agree some times even older players "make a stand" vs them young'ins and spaz. but i wasnt aggro enough to even warrant that imo.

i understand folding comes off as extremely results oriented. and we are folding like everything if we fold 55 here. but i cant say it enough - them 75 year olds are not sticking in a top 10 chip stack with TT like ever here.

in retrospect, i think i still have to call. but its way more of like a puke call. and in game i did snap call, but i was doubting if it should truly be a snap call.

i just dont really ever expect to be good vs some 75 year old dude in this spot.
jc315 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-05-2018, 11:48 PM   #14
UntimelyBluff
centurion
 
UntimelyBluff's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2017
Location: Around, somewhere
Posts: 142
Re: $460 wsop side event hand

If you were looking for an excuse to let this hand go you came to the wrong forum, no one will say that yeah okay maybe fold, everyone who posts here will say snap call basically. If it's a better hand then you got unlucky, OH WELL. Of course a top tier pro could get away from this, but he would have to be so right on his reas that maybe he does call anyway.
UntimelyBluff is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-12-2018, 04:12 PM   #15
2livebru
stranger
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 2
Re: $460 wsop side event hand

I think this is a crying call, but a call none the less.

Given the description, and his action, Villain's range is really wide. An old school guy like that is going to see EP raiser's hand as strong. Nothing in the description about EP. Villain's is probably a SuperSystem type who would read that as AA, KK, QQ or AK and would get in there with something he can use to hit a draw and get an all in. Middle suited connector's, Ax suited is also in this range. It's also possible that being in MP he has a big pair and was looking to get a raiser behind him, so he can re-raise big. Either way, his range is really wide.

What range does he give you? Since you just called out of the Bb, it's going to be hard for him to put you on a range. Your reraise on the flop narrows your range a bit, but could be top pair hitting with a random hand, a pair and a flush draw and using your stack to apply pressure. You could also just be applying pressure with 2 big cards and a flush draw. Obviously a set should be in your range, but there are so many possibilities that I am not surprised by the call of your reraise.

When he goes all in on the turn, he is really trying to get it all in. What hands would he do that with? I don't think its out of the realm of possibility that he would do that with AA, KK, QQ when the spade flush doesn't come. He is not going to put you on the straight because you wouldn't have played a gutshot that way. I also think he would do that with 98, and just hit 2 pair.

In the end, I would call every time, but I would be wholly unhappy about it every time. When he turned over the straight, I would be screaming for the paired board. If he hit a set bigger than mine, at I have 10 Bb and I am now going to be playing shortstack poker, but at least I am still playing.
2livebru is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-12-2018, 05:18 PM   #16
jpgiro
adept
 
Join Date: Feb 2016
Location: Your gateway to the plains
Posts: 744
Re: $460 wsop side event hand

This is pretty close. There is a non-trivial chance we're up against a better set (88/99) plus 76, but also a non-trivial chance we're up against 2p+ and the occasional flush draw. Ultimately I think calling is fine, but this is a spot where you're going to be beaten a decent amount.
jpgiro is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-13-2018, 03:18 AM   #17
oldsilver
Pooh-Bah
 
oldsilver's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2012
Location: yelling at clouds
Posts: 4,704
Re: $460 wsop side event hand

Quote:
Originally Posted by Beachman42 View Post
V didn't realize how very lucky he was - until he did. OMP sometimes spite calls the young'uns. Take comfort in the fact that he either punted off all his chips when he got hungry or tired or *begged* for a chop when the final table sat.
spot on +1

i did read the OP and think, "bet he didn't believe the kid and got lucky with 88". stupid old man
oldsilver is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-13-2018, 09:33 AM   #18
PhatPots
veteran
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Toronto
Posts: 3,195
Re: $460 wsop side event hand

Quote:
Originally Posted by jpgiro View Post
This is pretty close. There is a non-trivial chance we're up against a better set (88/99) plus 76, but also a non-trivial chance we're up against 2p+ and the occasional flush draw. Ultimately I think calling is fine, but this is a spot where you're going to be beaten a decent amount.
No way. You the almost the top of your range here (Only 99 would be better). It's a $460 side event, people do all kinds of weird things. I think you will be winning in this spot a decent amount and once in a while be beat. You really think this guy can't have 98? If he peeled the flop with 88, he certainly would with 98.

As a general rule, the smaller the buy-in, the more likely the player is to spazz out or overplay their hand (Phatpots theorem).

When you factor that in, this is an absolute must call.
PhatPots is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-13-2018, 12:37 PM   #19
persianpunisher
adept
 
persianpunisher's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2014
Posts: 831
Re: $460 wsop side event hand

This thread should be in BBV.
persianpunisher is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-13-2018, 01:28 PM   #20
jpgiro
adept
 
Join Date: Feb 2016
Location: Your gateway to the plains
Posts: 744
Re: $460 wsop side event hand

Quote:
Originally Posted by PhatPots View Post
No way. You the almost the top of your range here (Only 99 would be better). It's a $460 side event, people do all kinds of weird things. I think you will be winning in this spot a decent amount and once in a while be beat. You really think this guy can't have 98? If he peeled the flop with 88, he certainly would with 98.

As a general rule, the smaller the buy-in, the more likely the player is to spazz out or overplay their hand (Phatpots theorem).

When you factor that in, this is an absolute must call.
As I said it's a call, but I'm guessing you're behind roughly half the time vs. tight old guy range. Which is a decent amount.
jpgiro is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 05:58 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2017, Two Plus Two Interactive
 
 
Poker Players - Streaming Live Online