$400 live, what is the probability UTG has AA here? - MTT Poker Strategy

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$400 live, what is the probability UTG has AA here?

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08-21-2019 , 06:41 PM

BDHarrison

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2016 Posts: 4,529

150-ish spots pay, approximately 40 left.

UTG is not particularly loose or aggressive, based on two hours of observation. He doesn't seem to semibluff draws, bluff the river, or make thin value bets against scare cards. He has raised in EP and just called a 3bet with AK and flatted a 3bet in the blinds with QQ.

UTG has approximately 35bb, almost twice an average stack. UTG+1 barely covers. UTG raises to 2.2bb when his normal open raise is 2.5bb, UTG+1 makes it 8bb, UTG ships it in.

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08-21-2019 , 10:46 PM

Smudger2408

banned

Join Date: Jun 2019 Posts: 1,922

aces or kings, or 9's or 8's, with weightings towards aces or kings.

10's jacks or queens he's probably okay taking a flop with.

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08-22-2019 , 09:10 AM

Beachman42

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 4,365

Why 3! to 8 bb here?

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08-22-2019 , 01:45 PM

BDHarrison

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2016 Posts: 4,529

Quote:

Originally Posted by Beachman42

Why 3! to 8 bb here?

There's no standard 3bet size and when I looked at reporting for a major tournament, they were going between 5-10bb. It might have been 8, might have been 7. It was somewhere in the middle of what other people do.

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08-25-2019 , 05:02 PM

2pairsof2s

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 1,613

Based only on the fact you posted about it, and taking no other factors into account, I would say around 100%.

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