Quote:
Originally Posted by jl121
Stereotyping at the table is definitely good, and generally I see sloppy unkempt people being too loose (which would make me want to defend wider), but it's not like that's a rule and absent a real read their appearances shouldn't factor at all into your decisions in this hand. Let's be honest, you actually have no reads here.
Pre is close but ultimately a fold. Best case you have ~25% equity 3-ways and you're getting 4.2:1 to defend and sure you win a few extra chips postflop sometimes and sure (very rarely) you can even double up, but you're OOP so it's going to be really, really hard to realize your equity and you'll actually need to be realizing your equity most of the time just to breakeven. And if you don't know what do on some of your best flops like 985 you're just not going to make this defend work enough to justify putting in 7% of your stack.
As played you have to continue at least one street but I don't see how you're ever good here at this point. Live villains play very straightfoward multiway, this board hits your defend range and also the flatter's range too, so I don't see too many cbets with air being made here. And you beat really none of the non-air portion of this guy's cbet range. I guess he can have AK but not all villains open that to 3x, and certainly they're not all cbetting that hand here. What was the sizing?
you get 3.75-1 pre (assuming there are no antes in play, op didn’t mention that) in which case you need 21% equity to break even. in case we have 25% equity vs their opening ranges (which seems reasonable but could even be higher than 25% depending on their actual ranges) folding is terrible and defending is printing money. i would never consider folding this.
i dont think its tough to realize your equity with 97s at all. flop seems like a trivial x/jam given spr even if we think villain is close to never bet/folding. if he ever does bet/fold (which he will, not a fan of assigning 0% bluff/100% value ranges) it’s absurdly profitable.
given smaller stacks/sprs you go broke in mtts occasionally, super std though.