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Mid-High Stakes MTT Discussion and analysis of mid-high stakes MTT strategy

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Old 04-12-2018, 11:23 PM   #1
oldsilver
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$350 live UTG facing donk and deciding whether to bluff raise

Curious little spot from a recent live $350. Hero recently arrived at table.

400/800/75

Hero 30K (UTG - JJ)
V1 150K (BTN)
V2 30K (BB)
Hero raises 2BB (1600) called in both spots

Flop Q93r

V2 (mid 40s, rec) leads 2.4K

Live read is that V2 (BB) is donking here to find out whether his Qx heavy range is good and will likely fold to pressure.

OK so this is the key decision point in the hand. I don't like any option. Calling lets V2 win with Qx or improve. Raising is bloating pot against unknown response from V2 (and V1). Folding seems horridly weak. Which one would you choose?

Hero raise to 8K (turning JJ into a bluff, squeezing out V1 if needed)

V1 BTN (early 30s, decent reg) calls (fold, damn you), BB folds (as expected).

turn T completing rainbow.

V1 is on a sick heater (based on table chatter) and is not the type to fold another 20K after flatting the first 8K given his stack size. i have additional equity with the up-down draw, but block JTs combos and 9x isn't a great option for V2 to continue. I have V1 on KQ, AQ, 99, 33, JT and perhaps a couple of KJs KTs combos with backdoors, but if you disagree and think V can be legit wider here on the action, keen to hear thoughts.

Hero has 22K behind, checks.
V1 bets 8K, Hero sigh-folds.

In light of my plan completely back-firing, and unsure whether 8JK are clean outs on river, I abort.

Last edited by oldsilver; 04-12-2018 at 11:41 PM.
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Old 04-13-2018, 03:47 AM   #2
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Re: $350 live UTG facing donk and deciding whether to bluff raise

I think JJ is simply too good to turn into a bluff on this board, at this point in the hand. As you said, if you think he never takes this line with a Q, why are we trying to raise and fold him out? What did we accomplish other than making him fold a hand we were likely far ahead of? With that in mind I'm somewhat struggling to define a bb donking range here, as I think every single villain (besides the absolute worst) would be fine x/c Qx on this board - but holding JJ really cuts down on the KJ/JT type bluffs that might lead here.

I think I really prefer calling and if button calls/raises we can probably figure we're smoked.
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Old 04-13-2018, 04:01 AM   #3
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Re: $350 live UTG facing donk and deciding whether to bluff raise

youve misread OP

I think V2 takes this line with mainly Qx

Also if we flat then V1 can squeeze wide
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Old 04-13-2018, 04:24 AM   #4
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Re: $350 live UTG facing donk and deciding whether to bluff raise

Whoops you're right, my bad man. I still dont like raising here multiway on such a dry board because I'm really not sure why the bb would donk Qx. If we're sure he has Qx then maybe we just muck because we clearly have a huge edge on this type of player, and trying to bluff bad players off top pair is always playing with fire - not to mention the button is still yet to act.

Heads up if you have an exploitative read that he both has a queen and will fold here to pressure then I think its fine.
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Old 04-13-2018, 09:51 AM   #5
poloplaya1414
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Re: $350 live UTG facing donk and deciding whether to bluff raise

Flat flop with the JJ. Like JSkelts said, too strong of a hand to turn into a bluff. Villain could have Qx. He could also have 9x and be betting to find out where he's at. He could also have a draw. Hard to say. Im not inclined to fold out the parts of hand that we are ahead of.

On the turn, I think we can pretty confidently say that all of our straight outs are clean against villain's range here. I doubt he cold called a raise on flop with AJ or KJ. Very small chance he has QJ and we're drawing to a chop, but I doubt he bets turn with QJ. The J outs are also good except if he has KQ exactly, and I also question whether he bets turn with KQ.

We have 20% equity here against a range of AQ/KQ/99/33/Q9, and if I did my math right, there's ~25K in the pot, which means we're pretty much getting exactly the right odds to call his 8K bet.

I kinda want to jam turn, but I just don't think we have enough fold equity against a super strong V1 range.

Last edited by poloplaya1414; 04-13-2018 at 09:58 AM.
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Old 04-13-2018, 11:13 AM   #6
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Re: $350 live UTG facing donk and deciding whether to bluff raise

Old I’m sorry to say but you’re really just mashing buttons and need to do some work with your post flop ranges
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Old 04-13-2018, 01:08 PM   #7
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Re: $350 live UTG facing donk and deciding whether to bluff raise

Super, super clear flat on the flop. We have a marginal made hand and we don't want to play a big pot here. I'm not sure I'd have a big raising range here, but if I did it'd probably be just most of my sets and maybe straight draws with little showdown value like KJ or T8 to balance. If we call and get squeezed then we can consider folding, but that's ok because we should have our trapped sets, Qx and maybe some JT that we can continue with.

As played lean towards call turn because as noted we are getting roughly the right direct price to do so.
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Old 04-13-2018, 02:30 PM   #8
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Re: $350 live UTG facing donk and deciding whether to bluff raise

Quote:
Originally Posted by JSkelts View Post
Whoops you're right, my bad man. I still dont like raising here multiway on such a dry board because I'm really not sure why the bb would donk Qx. If we're sure he has Qx then maybe we just muck because we clearly have a huge edge on this type of player, and trying to bluff bad players off top pair is always playing with fire - not to mention the button is still yet to act.

Heads up if you have an exploitative read that he both has a queen and will fold here to pressure then I think its fine.
I agree. If he has Qx, how do you know he will fold? Do you want to risk your entire stack to try and find out? This is a super clear flat on the flop.
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Old 04-14-2018, 10:45 PM   #9
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Re: $350 live UTG facing donk and deciding whether to bluff raise

Yeah all fine, I hated this hand too but didn’t want to state that in the OP

Ran third in this, but leaked a lot of chips here

I think/thought this type of player does lead Qx almost exclusively in his spot and I block the JT draws he may balance this line with, but how do others range someone with that player description donking the flop?
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Old 04-14-2018, 11:33 PM   #10
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Re: $350 live UTG facing donk and deciding whether to bluff raise

I feel like a lead here is almost always one of two things:

1. A strong holding that is afraid of the action checking through so they miss value (Qx mostly here)
2. A middling holding on a dry board that is unsure if they're ahead - but knows a lot of turns will be bad for them. (9x, 44+,etc)

And since group 2 exists I feel like JJ is just too good to turn into a bluff.

But I play pretty much all of my volume online, so I wouldnt be surprised if live players have different interpretations than I do.
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Old 04-15-2018, 02:42 AM   #11
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Re: $350 live UTG facing donk and deciding whether to bluff raise

Nice post mate and welcome to forum

I generally range live donk leads as top pair weaker kicker or str draws or flush draws. Multi draws and mid pairs tend play a little differently. A9 and JT are the only candidates I see for a donk weaker than JJ, hence my reluctance to flat and just be shown QT KQ Q8 or whatever at the end
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Old 04-16-2018, 09:25 AM   #12
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Re: $350 live UTG facing donk and deciding whether to bluff raise

I personally dislike the 2x pre - you should bet bigger with JJ or you will run on tough decisions too often.

On the particular spot - I flat on flop.
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Old 04-16-2018, 11:00 AM   #13
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Re: $350 live UTG facing donk and deciding whether to bluff raise

Quote:
Originally Posted by oldsilver View Post
Nice post mate and welcome to forum

I generally range live donk leads as top pair weaker kicker or str draws or flush draws. Multi draws and mid pairs tend play a little differently. A9 and JT are the only candidates I see for a donk weaker than JJ, hence my reluctance to flat and just be shown QT KQ Q8 or whatever at the end
Idk I've seen plenty of weaker players who like to lead out with middle pair type hands to see where they're at. I wouldn't write off that possibility at all.
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Old 04-17-2018, 07:04 PM   #14
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Re: $350 live UTG facing donk and deciding whether to bluff raise

Calling flop accomplishes roughly the same than raising vs the lead. Villain is mostly checking ott with all the hands you beat and betting better. You are also allowed to bluff raise turn and it might be good if you really think he is folding Qx often enough and not leading sets/Q9 otf. Getting squeezed here is fine too; you block bluffs and have plenty of better hands in range so folding seems standard. You can always exploit V1 overbluffing with calling all your Qx if you wish.

I’m pukecalling turn as played.

Edit: V1 shouldn’t be bluffing too much here when your range is uncapped and quite strong.

Last edited by Gettingood; 04-17-2018 at 07:11 PM.
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