$33. Rivered tptk against surprise x-jam. - MTT Poker Strategy

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$33. Rivered tptk against surprise x-jam.

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10-26-2014 , 03:18 AM

Dragons_Egg

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 4,861

Hey

villain is 24/16 for 40 hands. Didn't seem spewy or anything. Only notable hand we've had previously is when I flatted their ep open with KsQs. Flop comes Kc7c3h and i flat a cbet. Then villain c/c's my bet on a Kd turn, and then x/tank-fold's to my bet on a brick river.

It should appear that that A hits our range pretty hard given our line, so are we calling or folding now?

thanks

Poker Stars, $30 Buy-in (50/100 blinds) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 8 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

SB: 2,680 (26.8 bb)
BB: 3,155 (31.6 bb)
UTG+2: 3,065 (30.7 bb)
MP1: 3,550 (35.5 bb)
MP2: 3,000 (30 bb)
MP3: 3,135 (31.4 bb)
Hero (CO): 4,903 (49 bb)
BTN: 2,278 (22.8 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A

4 folds, Hero raises to 225, 2 folds, BB calls 125

Flop: (500) 5

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 230, BB calls 230

Turn: (960) 6

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: (960) A

(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 384, BB raises to 2,700 and is all-in, Hero ???

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10-26-2014 , 03:31 AM

gamboneee

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 9,163

id bet a lot bigger and prob not fold now

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10-26-2014 , 03:41 AM

ozmosis313

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 4,010

What is hero's image to villain? in a vacuum can't see you ever being good here.

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10-26-2014 , 06:49 AM

Colin_Piddle

The Colonial

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 11,808

This is pretty gross but I agree with poster above just seems like an absurd spot to be bluffing and can't see you been good here.

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10-26-2014 , 08:38 AM

oldsilver

MTTLivePro

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 5,941

24/16 V has 6x in defend range for sure.
he'll also have air sometimes, but not often enough to justify a call

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10-26-2014 , 09:00 AM

Alexo

old hand

Join Date: May 2014 Posts: 1,245

Yeah well thing is our ranged is capped at what it is so.. I doubt we even have AQ when we size like that so we gotta call and hate ourselves for sizing so small.

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10-26-2014 , 09:14 AM

Jankis006

journeyman

Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 323

typical fish line with a house or 6x like 99% of the time so not really close to a decision

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10-26-2014 , 09:46 AM

wowsooooted

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 5,077

can only beat a bluff and doubt it is very often with the A otr as it hits our range

yep looks like 6x peeling the flop to a cbet

also getting that price we have to be right fairly often and don't think we will be enough to justify a call

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10-26-2014 , 10:06 AM

CrunkMonkey

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 1,304

such a levelly spot. I really hate the river bet size unless you plan on snap calling a shove here.

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10-26-2014 , 11:49 AM

#10

user12345

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2014 Posts: 3,737

more/fold

whats the idea behind small bet?

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10-26-2014 , 07:28 PM

#11

Dragons_Egg

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 4,861

Quote:

Originally Posted by user12345

whats the idea behind small bet?

There wasn't much of an idea at the time. I agree that my river bet is either tp+ or a bluff, so I should have sized bigger to get more value when villain bluff catches.

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10-26-2014 , 07:31 PM

#12

Dragons_Egg

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 4,861

Quote:

Originally Posted by ozmosis313

What is hero's image to villain?

Pretty sure my stats were standard taggish, and I hadn't played any hands out of line to showdown.

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10-26-2014 , 08:31 PM

#13

Alexo

old hand

Join Date: May 2014 Posts: 1,245

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dragons_Egg

There wasn't much of an idea at the time. I agree that my river bet is either tp+ or a bluff

no it's not tp+, it's capped at tp

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10-26-2014 , 11:30 PM

#14

Foztech

newbie

Join Date: Mar 2013 Posts: 16

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alexo

no it's not tp+, it's capped at tp

Agree

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10-27-2014 , 08:44 AM

#15

CrunkMonkey

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 1,304

yeah, the problem here isn't that you look like bluff or tp+ it's that your hand is virtually face up as never better than 1p. a competent v should basically raise or fold this river 100% depending on:

1. whether they can beat tptk or
2. whether they think you'll fold tptk

a more polarizing size should force him to bluff catch more and bluff less but with this sizing bluff frequency should > bluff catching frequency if he's competent which is why I only like this sizing if you have some read that he'll turn worse made hands into bluffs as well as bluff off all of his whiffed draws.

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10-27-2014 , 03:22 PM

#16

betgo

banned

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 28,590

Larger on river. Fold to shove. Yes, your range is capped, but villain's line looks like donk with the nuts. Ace looks like it might have hit you. Doubt this is a bluff.

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10-27-2014 , 04:24 PM

#17

CrunkMonkey

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 1,304

Quote:

Originally Posted by betgo

looks like donk with the nuts. .

ppl keep saying that which is funny cuz this is pretty much the nut line with a set on this board texture.

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10-27-2014 , 04:30 PM

#18

user12345

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2014 Posts: 3,737

Quote:

Originally Posted by CrunkMonkey

ppl keep saying that which is funny cuz this is pretty much the nut line with a set on this board texture.

yeah

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10-27-2014 , 04:49 PM

#19

lissistinkt

old hand

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 1,816

yeah its funny how people think villain played turn right and river wrong with 6x

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10-27-2014 , 09:26 PM

#20

LittleGoliath

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 3,921

Quote:

Originally Posted by lissistinkt

yeah its funny how people think villain played turn right and river wrong with 6x

qft

Would call vs a competent villain

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10-27-2014 , 10:02 PM

#21

betgo

banned

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 28,590

This is a great spot to c/r bluff. I would just question if someone in a $30 tournament would overshove bluff for 1.5x pot, when OP is likely value betting a rivered top pair. If villain is not a regular, it seems like a really easy fold.

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10-27-2014 , 10:51 PM

#22

user12345

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2014 Posts: 3,737

Quote:

Originally Posted by LittleGoliath

qft

Would call vs a competent villain

its not only about villain but its mostly about us(hero).

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