We just lost 15bb or so in an 75% equity hand and went from 15th to 30th out of 35 remaining. Before that, we were picking up a lot of pots, so we have a tough image. This is a $50+5 30k GTD.

First of all, is this a reasonable defend? We're only 5 handed here, so I'm typically pretty happy to play most suited kings for 4:1 odds.

On the flop, I strongly considered making a small check/raise to charge his overcards: I reset the stats to table stats (that's why there're no hands on villain), but he had a cbet frequency of 100% over 150 hands or so. I decided not to because of my stack depth and I wouldn't know what to do if villain just flats. Unfortunately, this decision put me in a pretty bad spot later on in the hand.

EDIT For some reason, I thought that the turn was the third heart and the river was off suit. I think the fact that the river completes the flush is a pretty strong argument for a fold... however, that leaves me to wondering what villain could bet/check/jam with.

Winning Poker Network (Yatahay) - 2,500/5,000 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 37.82 BB (VPIP: 24.62, PFR: 18.64, 3Bet Preflop: 5.66, Hands: 31)
Hero (BB): 19.08 BB
UTG: 49.04 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 1)
CO: 42.34 BB (VPIP: 8.82, PFR: 3.03, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 34)
BTN: 31.91 BB (VPIP: 39.56, PFR: 14.94, 3Bet Preflop: 2.50, Hands: 61)

5 players post ante of 0.1 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2 BB) Hero has K 4

UTG raises to 2 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 1 BB

Flop: (5 BB, 2 players) 5 2 4
Hero checks, UTG bets 2.5 BB, Hero calls 2.5 BB

Turn: (10 BB, 2 players) 2
Hero checks, UTG checks

River: (10 BB, 2 players) Q
Hero checks, UTG bets 44.44 BB and is all-in, Hero ?

I don't think Qh is the worst river card in the world (and short of a K or 4, that 2c turn is prob the single best turn card in the deck). IMO you'd be in much worse shape if an A, K, 3, or heart that isn't the Qh (due to blockers) peels OTR. It certainly isn't great, though. Maybe 50th percentile in terms of crappiness.

The key part of the hand IMO is his turn check--he should never expect you to fold any of you flop continuing range on such a brick turn, so it's so hard for me to put him on an overpair. He's heavily {Ax, Kx, draws, air, nuts} when he x's turn.

By the river his most natural bluffs would be {AhX} combos blocking the nuts
and he'd have to have pretty much every {AhX} combo in his range AND be bluffing nearly 100% of them OTR AND he'd still have to have even more air he's bluffing to make a call worthwhile. I have his value range at

{AA, 66, AdQs, AdQc, AhQd, AhQs, AhQc, AsQd, AsQc, AcQd, AcQs, AhKh, KdQs, KdQc, KhQd, KhQs, KhQc, KsQd, KsQc, AdQd, AsQs, AcQc, KdQd, KsQs, AhJh, KhJh, AhTh, KhTh, JhTh, Ah9h, Kh9h, Jh9h, Th9h, Ah8h, Jh8h, Th8h, 9h8h, Ah7h, 8h7h, Ah6h, 7h6h, 5d5s, 5d5c, 5s5c, Ah4h, 4h4s, Ah3h, Ad2d, As2s, 2d2s}

which is ~60 combos (Included {AA} just because maybe that's the one overpair that can x turn, it needs no protection from barreling), you'd need to find ~30 bluff combos just for a call to be breakeven EV. It's close, not a punt by any means, but IDK if you can do it. Flip a coin and decide maybe? Personally I would say GG and fo.d

Do think x/c turn is incorrect, if he cbets as wide as his stats indicate you're probably a flip vs his cbetting range. Could maybe even jam for protection/value vs his FDs. Issue w/ x/c is exactly what you're seeing here--your range is too heavily capped, its too easy to put max pressure on you on most runouts. IDK, is "raising to deny bluff equity" a valid concept?

Seems like a pretty standard x/f on river when he over bet shoves. The defend is good and ofc u gotta x/c flop. Might call a turn if he makes it cheap enough.

I'm still baffled by the fact that the river was the heart. I could've sword it was the turn... but I'm sure PT4 has a better memory than I do. Regardless, are we folding to any paint? Any heart? That's a hell of a lot of cards... though we're also check/calling the flop with a lot of flush draws. I'm thinking more or less that this can't really be determined w/o villain's complete stats.

Just pointing out too that on the river, we're only like 12.5bb eff. Hard to tell in the hh. And thanks ^

I'd probably fold to his bet on the flop, which despite pairing our 4 is not that great for us. We're too short to be speculating with our chips, even if he does c-bet 100%. Otherwise I suppose c/raise>c/call in terms of winning the hand, since you are check-calling with a hand that is unlikely to improve enough to be more than a bluff catcher, and a weak one at that. As played it seems like a pretty trivial fold on the river, but I acknowledge that you can make a hero call here and sometimes you'll be right.

As far as x/r here, how do you feel about clicking it back or even x/jamming?

What is our plan/goal defending here if we intend to fold flop w/ a pair (albeit an extremely weak one)?

Really appreciate the help.

I suppose I would x-jam to maximize my FE. But like I said I think you are too short to make many plays here. I think obviously you call pre for 1 BB but to continue I would want to see a flop that might give me more than a bluff catcher, like a K or some clubs.