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30$ progressive KO -  3-way pot 30$ progressive KO -  3-way pot

02-11-2019 , 06:14 PM
I'm trying to get the ev($) math for this one.If you could help me, for now my biggest problem is how to convert the bounties to chips, is there an approximation?

About 400 players left, I'm 'confortably' above average.

SB: we have 8 hands on SB and he folded all.
3b range estimate:44+,ATs+,KJs+,AJo+ (9,5%)
4b call estimate: TT+,AQs+,AKo (3,8%)

BB: gambler - prolly 10-15% re-shove

my bounty:25$
BB bounty:14$

I think i got most of the math right, my main problem is how to factor in the bounties because they must affect the ranges right?

    PokerStars - 1250/2500 Ante 325 NL - Holdem - 9 players
    Hand converted by Holdem Manager 3

    BB: 44,480 (17.8 bb)
    UTG: 61,647 (24.7 bb)
    UTG+1: 65,467 (26.2 bb)
    MP: 126,600 (50.6 bb)
    MP+1: 110,390 (44.2 bb)
    MP+2: 25,732 (10.3 bb)
    CO: 127,161 (50.9 bb)
    Hero (BTN): 111,723 (44.7 bb)
    SB: 313,927 (125.6 bb)

    9 players post ante of 325, SB posts 1,250, BB posts 2,500

    Pre Flop: (pot: 6,675) Hero has 7 7
    6 folds, Hero raises to 5,000, SB raises to 12,500, BB raises to 44,155 and is all-in, Hero raises to 111,398 and is all-in, SB calls 98,898

    Flop: (269,876, 3 players) 9 J 3

    Turn: (269,876, 3 players) J

    River: (269,876, 3 players) J

    Results: 269,876 pot (0 rake)
    Final Board: 9 J 3 J J

    SB shows T T: (Full House, Jacks full of Tens)
    Main Pot: [135,390]: (Pre 43%, Flop 69%, Turn 81%)
    Side Pot: [134,486]: (Pre 80%, Flop 91%, Turn 95%)

    Hero shows 7 7: (Full House, Jacks full of Sevens)
    Main Pot: [135,390]: (Pre 18%, Flop 8%, Turn 5%)
    Side Pot: [134,486]: (Pre 20%, Flop 9%, Turn 5%)

    BB shows A Q: (Three of a Kind, Jacks)
    Main Pot: [135,390]: (Pre 39%, Flop 23%, Turn 14%)

    SB wins 269,876
    30$ progressive KO -  3-way pot Quote
    02-11-2019 , 08:42 PM
    We can't estimate SB 3bet range with 0 read, and if we have to assume anything he didn't play his first 8 hands so no reason to not think he's a nit, but we really don't know and people can have somewhere in between 0% and 20% 3-bets in those positions... Readless I think we have to assume that the 3-bet sizing is pretty damn strong, when you're trying to steal oop you tend to size bigger. It's kind of a leveling argument but from a random in a 30$ tourney assuming he's some kind of wizzard balancing his sizings and ranges and stuff is not very realistic.

    But in any case it's a very close spot and I don't think we can go TOO wrong there either way. I tend to think it's a fold but we're guessing a lot.
    30$ progressive KO -  3-way pot Quote

          
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