Quote:
Originally Posted by SageLee
I do feel like the situation/flop is simple enough though to have a full plan, re: re-eval on turn. Are we calling all or most turns (assuming 50% pot+ bets), or folding if another overcard falls (and what if it's our suit)? Are we checking behind if he does check, in hunker-down-and-protect-my-stack-instead-of-my-hand mode (prob)? I suppose he might think we're trapping if I call but given history I feel like he going to keep attacking on the turn with most of his range.
Curious also to hear thoughts on if we were to discount calling, if shoving or folding would be the worse play.
Disclaimer: I don't ever employ this btn limping strat with 20bbs eff (or with any other stack size.) The closest thing I do is limp 100% range in SB during antes w 20-50bbs eff.
That said...I don't hate it in theory and it may be "selectively" employed in spots that satisfy certain variables (namely don't wanna r/f or r/c and we think we will be put to those choices at a high freq.)
I do however, think that IF we do decide to limp btn, it requires that we have an overall strat, where we would be balanced enuf to limp-shove and limp/call when we get shoved over. We should also have a subset of our range that can continue vs smallish BB iso's. Obv we will also have a subset of our range that folds to any size raise. In other words, we need to distribute our hands wisely in order to prevent SB/BB from shoving 35% or BB from iso'ing to 3-3.5x.
This range is not easy to construct...and imo (even under "ideal" circumstances) it prob isn't the best/most EV+ line/strat to employ.
But w/e...we got here, so play the hand. I will say that 75s def has a place in a limping range BUT...it is prob the stone bottom of the subset that can cont. vs a small iso. IMO folding > calling vs the BB 3x, but it's close.
Otf i do believe that we have what will very likely be the only easy decision in this hand. Here's our flop strat from a Sim that I ran. We can discuss the ranges but I gave the aggro BB a 27% iso range and gave hero a ~12% btn limping range (that was somewhat balanced with some of Axs and a low freq ATo and AJo.)
I can understand OP's trepidation RE calling the flop but there are some good reasons to do so:
1. We are not committed, nor are we committing ourselves to calling future bets. We will have 49.5k after calling the cbet (which means we have only committed ~28% of our stack.)
2. While our overall equity hasn't improved much (from pre to flop) BB still has a ton of air. Below is breakdown of BB's range otf. Notice that ~67% of it is 3rd pair or worse*:
*vill is cbetting ~77% freq.
3. It's not necessary to shove this combo for protection since there aren't many draws and we can get to SD a decent % of the time by calling. Our calls are protected by our J8s+; QJo; KJo combos.
4. After his cbet is called, villain will most likely shut down since the SPR ott will be only 1.2.
The plan for turns is pretty simple, assuming villain uses the only 2 bet sizes that make any sense (in the Sim a gave 30% and shove.) I think 25% on some turns makes some sense too. Vs the shove we always cont. (on any card) when we pick up a BDFD and on any 2-7; J; and mix vs Qx. Vs the 25-30% sizing we cont. on almost any turn, mixing only on Tx.
RE your question about a shove/fold strat otf...i just don't think it makes much sense on this texture since we do have a decent amt of 7x/medium strength hands. If those are the only 2 options then shove >>> fold with this combo since we do have a BDFD and vill will have to call his better Ax combos at min defense freq.
Moral of the story imo: use a less-complex strat