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3 Left at Final Table Spot 3 Left at Final Table Spot

06-13-2018 , 11:50 AM
We have been 3 handed for the last hour and the villain in this hand hasn't lead out that much. Honestly, i figured he had Qx when he takes this line, but with all of my outs and considering ICM is this a mandatory call or all-in? I could of called and left me with 6BB i guess...thoughts?

PokerStars - 6000/12000 Ante 1500 NL - Holdem - 3 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: 31.25 BB (VPIP: 22.48, PFR: 6.61, 3Bet Preflop: 3.19, Hands: 269)
BB: 15.93 BB (VPIP: 23.87, PFR: 12.55, 3Bet Preflop: 7.39, Hands: 544)
Hero (BTN): 28.65 BB

3 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.87 BB) Hero has 7 6

Hero raises to 2 BB, SB calls 1.5 BB, fold

Flop: (5.37 BB, 2 players) 8 9 Q
SB bets 5.37 BB, Hero calls 5.37 BB

Turn: (16.12 BB, 2 players) Q
SB bets 16.12 BB, Hero raises to 21.15 BB and is all-in, SB calls 5.02 BB

River: (58.42 BB, 2 players) 9

SB shows Q A (Full House, Queens full of Nines)
(Pre 60%, Flop 49%, Turn 70%)
Hero shows 7 6 (Two Pair, Queens and Nines)
(Pre 40%, Flop 51%, Turn 30%)
SB wins 58.42 BB
3 Left at Final Table Spot Quote
06-13-2018 , 01:22 PM
Raise/gii on flop.
3 Left at Final Table Spot Quote
06-13-2018 , 01:45 PM
Do we really think we have any fold equity here facing a pot sized lead from a villain with a 6% PFR and 3% 3bet? or does it not matter?
3 Left at Final Table Spot Quote
06-13-2018 , 04:28 PM
Doesn't matter.. We're 62.40% vs. QT+ on the flop.
3 Left at Final Table Spot Quote
06-13-2018 , 05:01 PM
Not sure why your stats show flop 49/51%... Using propokertools, vs. AQ I see -

board: 8d 9 Qd
Hand Equity Wins Ties
AQ 35.85% 16,857 360
7d6d 64.15% 30,303 360
3 Left at Final Table Spot Quote
06-13-2018 , 05:20 PM
I'm seeing 49% / 51% on my equity calculator.

The Ad gives him backdoor flush draw.
3 Left at Final Table Spot Quote
06-13-2018 , 10:36 PM
I've run it on both Slice and twodimes.net ... and get 51.2%/48.8% both ways.

The answer may be that in akashra77's formulation, you didn't specify a suit for the 9. So your calculator has modeled up all four possible 9s, including a 25% chance that it's the 9d. In that case, Hero would already have a made flush, which would play quite well.

Alas, Hero is still on a draw.

Even so, I'm good with shoving the flop. You're a narrow favorite, and the odds are tight enough that any chance of folding equity is welcome, too, no matter how thin.
3 Left at Final Table Spot Quote
06-14-2018 , 04:57 AM
nice brag
3 Left at Final Table Spot Quote
06-15-2018 , 03:09 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RalphWaldoEmerson
nice brag
pretty sick flat by SB too...ICM bot obv...kinda surprised that 3-handed only lasted for an hour with this level of aggression.
3 Left at Final Table Spot Quote
06-15-2018 , 01:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Beachman42
Raise/gii on flop.
+1
3 Left at Final Table Spot Quote

      
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