Hello, just wanting opinions on whether or not this is too spewy. It's a $22 buyin so there's no doubt easier spots to chip up but spewing is fun.

Villain improves a bunch on the turn, but I don't have too many 3barrel bluffs on this runout. K7s is the worst suited Kx I'm opening 40bb deep here, and off the top of my head I'm only really taking this line (minus club combos) w K8s, T9s, sometimes w AT, then some Ad2d-Ad5d a small %.

I also wanted to go bigger on the turn but stack sizes seemed awkward and would be then be jamming much less than pot otr.

PokerStars - 4000/8000 Ante 800 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: 30.15 BB (VPIP: 22.22, PFR: 13.33, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 45)
UTG: 93.76 BB (VPIP: 28.26, PFR: 19.57, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 46)
Hero (MP): 42.48 BB
CO: 39.45 BB (VPIP: 25.58, PFR: 19.05, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 45)
BTN: 65.97 BB (VPIP: 26.09, PFR: 17.39, 3Bet Preflop: 8.57, Hands: 69)
SB: 23.95 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)

6 players post ante of 0.1 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 2.1 BB) Hero has 7 K

fold, Hero raises to 2.15 BB, CO calls 2.15 BB, fold, fold, fold

Flop: (6.4 BB, 2 players) 4 J Q
Hero bets 3.85 BB, CO calls 3.85 BB

Turn: (14.1 BB, 2 players) T
Hero bets 9 BB, CO calls 9 BB

River: (32.1 BB, 2 players) 6
Hero bets 27.38 BB and is all-in, CO calls 24.35 BB and is all-in

Seems fine to me. Once you bet flop and turn you have to gii on this river. Sometimes he'll have Acxc and fold sometimes he'll have a set or a straight and you'll loose.

I'll check the river though on clubs and Kings if I don't block any face club...

Fold pre

When I donate, I try to imagine what my best triples would be if I were a sensible player. If it gets through I don't sweat it because results.

It's nice to have significant equity on the turn, but the consequence is we'll always block river folding stuff. It's almost an inverse relationship. K7 I think is nicely balanced but we do block KJ, KT which are some of the main targets. So if we know we're going three I'd rather have A2-A5 but K7 would be up there in the pool of eligible candidates.

Sizing I agree not much you can do. Maybe just size up turn the times you want to put this in a bet-bet-give up line.

Cant agree or disagree really. It's an open here according to ranges from the RYE course but its obviously marginal. In a tough lineup I'm folding pre but here in a relatively soft field where people aren't calling down light enough to aggression, I feel like it can be justified.

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Pre is very reasonable open. We should be opening most of our suited Kx from the HJ in a 6-handed pot.

I think the turn barrel is probably ok. We will want to check some of our best flush draws either flop or turn so we will need to have hands other than flushes to balance our nut and near-nut hands. As noted the Kd is going to be in a lot of hands that will either fold turn or river so it's not the best card for us to have, so maybe we take this line with Adxd instead.

I'd also think we'd check some amount of marginal made hands on the turn so we can always take a hand like this with some equity and put it in our checking range, intending to use it as a river bluff to balance out the hands we'd check turn/bet river for value with.

Check turn.

You pick up hot/cold equity and a draw to the nuts

But you do not pick up much fold equity OTT. In fact given that straights get there, 2pr gets there, TT gets there, Jx pretty much loves seeing that Th roll off, I don't think we have much FE here at all. The Th scares the 27 combos of 55-99, and the other part of his range (which is the vast majority of his range) is totally cool seeing a Th OTT. I think everything he calls flop with except his total airball flop floats will mostly be continuing OTT.


AP, on this particular river he might fold the following hands with at least some frequency: {AJ, KJ,KT J9, J8, T9, T8, 99, 88, AT, A9, AcXc, 6c5c}, and he might call with the following hands with at least some frequency {AQ, KQ, Q8-QT, QJ, TT, 44, K9, 98}, plus he's got some worse hands than yours which also fold if you shove. So yeah at first glance it seems like a river shove would be +EV and I think you should go for it.

Getting back specifically to the turn for a sec, the reason I prefer x turn is because even though barreling turn opens us up to some potentially +EV tripling opportunities like this one, when you consider all the possible river cards, we only have like 21 cards (any non-club 2-6, and non-club 9 or A) where either ranges look similar to what they look like now (with V possibly being open for exploitation OTR) or where we have the effective nuts. So it's more likely than not we'll be facing a river decision that isn't as clear cut, and we're paying a 9bb price for that privilege and I'm not sure we win back enough chips the 21/46 times we either river the nuts (we chop sometimes too which decreases our EV a bit) or a good tripling card rolls off (and it's not like we always take it down--our EV is only so high because V will hero us a lot even on good cards for us to triple on) and we'd need to do that in order to compensate for the other ~25/46 times where our turn barrel fails and a river that's not so good for us to barrel rolls off and we mostly lose our 9bb turn investment.

So you sort of ran really good OTR having the 6s peel because it's not crazy common in this spot where you find yourself OTR, with air, having barreled turn, and still being fairly happy to triple it off. And if your running good consists of rivering a brick so you can triple with air, then your turn barrel strategy is probably too wide.

Are you guys checking turn to fold?

Years ago you'd have been laughed out of town for contemplating x/c turn with showdown valueless draws but I was startled to see Pio doing so in spots. Could be because IP Pio follows through on more rivers than pools.

X/c a small turn bet seems cool. I mean we have OESD and V's range can contain bluffs for sure. I wouldn't say we're showdown valueless exactly, we definitely beat some hands (not a lot by any means, but some) and not all these hands are following through OTR if it bricks. We probably have like 20% equity OTT.

Doubt we need to go too crazy in terms of the max sizing we're willing to call. Maybe 4.5bb?

a

Yes.

I was thinking we'd want IP to barrel rivers high freq so that if we hit we get one+ extra bet but come to think of it if humans are giving up on river bricks with 87s that's a huge counter-balance.

x/c definitely opens more strategic options if I could wrap my head around it. Argue against this: We have 16 combos of AK while IP has none so we'll rarely get raised. We have low implied odds on A or 9 as they put out 4 to so we need to get paid now for when we hit. Given our equity we only need them to fold turn ~15% of the time to break even immediately, so we bet.

Thanks everyone for the input! The 16 combos of AK is why I wanted to barrel here. If we don't bet here, what does our triple barrel range look like on this runout? We come to the river with many straights/sets and if we exclude hands like this, how do we make up the bluff combos we need (or theoretically should have if we want to be balanced)?

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1st of all, I forgot to mention: check flop for sure. This is a crappy texture for you vs an IP flatter. Especially not having a club in your hand.

We don't necessarily need a bluffing range OTR if V's range is strong enough (and his range does seem like it would be pretty strong here--this texture just smacks any reasonable range). Folding has EV of zero, so at that point the game has broken down into either a x/c or x/f decision and if we can just employ a +EV x/c strategy then we can make our overall strategy of 100% checking 1st to act +EV as well.


If you run this through a GTO solver you'll probably see what I'm seeing which is a strategy that's 100% check OTR. And in this particular case V's range is even stronger than what the solver expects because according to the solver, if V were were playing GTO then he'd be raising flop w/ 44 all day (like literally a 100% raising freq), and if his range if even stronger than what the solver expects when it advocated for 100% check freq then all the more reason to go ahead and do that.

I can't really argue against that, bearer. I did some really rough math on what the EV of barreling is here (I know you scoff at that but I did it anyway ) and I came up with some conditions dependent on the particular river card that yield ~.5bb in EV from barreling the turn, but that's at a pretty steep price since these are turn and river bets, so barreling is not a very "efficient" strategy. And I came up with x having similar EV and since x is free I'd just prefer to take the lower variance route.

I agree the way you put is makes barreling more attractive than I made it out to be.

grunching
xf flop
AP, xf turn

Kinda interesting spot ott and otr...it is kinda hard to find enuf bruffs otr given we have so many nutted value combos (all AK; QQ-TT...that's 25 right there) so we should try to find ~9 bruffs. Gonna have to take a look at this but wouldn't shock me if we can follow thru otr w at least a couple club combos like 65cc and 87cc?

Def cant barrel erry Kx ott here.

Oh yah...and fold pre.

Also dont like barrelling AT ott at any freq tbh.