250kgtd 99 in sb vs 15bb ep 3bet
Join Date: May 2012
Posts: 173
$300 250k gtd 3 of 215 left. 126 paid
utg- 11bb
utg2- 38bb
mp- 34bb opens 2.1x
lj-15bb shoves for 15bb
hj-16bb
co-37bb
btn- 32bb
folds to sb hero 72bb w/ 99 ??
bb- 12bb
OR is a weaker player, has been limping ep. lj seems tag. 34bb eff with OR. if i lose to OR ill drop down to about 20th of 215 so should be able to easily coast itm still. fwiw i think im snap shoving TT here but 9s seem closer to a fold.
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 2,771
With the described dynamic, folding 99 is best. You can even find a fold with TT.
Considering the original raiser, who you perceive to be tight, limps a lot, their early position raising range will generally be comprised of hands that nines and tens don't fare well against. Their range is likely somewhere between 77+, ATs+, AJo+ and JJ+, AK. And they'll only call your jam with JJ+, AK.
And the TAG shover is aware of the opener's nittiness and will adjust their jamming range accordingly. They'll probably be going all-in with 88+, AJs+, AQo+ at loosest and could be as tight as TT+, AQs+, AKo.
So since you're effectively risking half of your valuable stack because you still have to get through the original raiser, 99/TT are too marginal to go with against tight opponents.
Join Date: Apr 2010
Posts: 8,609
The fact that OR has limped makes his range to raise considerably stronger. I'd fold here and be very nitty with that information with stacks at 35bb effective.