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250K guaranteed- lead with rivered two pair? 250K guaranteed- lead with rivered two pair?

12-05-2018 , 12:26 PM
1200/600/1200 (BB ante), 70K effective

V is middle-aged European, one of the tighter players at the table. Doesn't get out of line much. He has ~55K and I cover.

V in UTG opens to 3500
Folds to me in BB, I call with KT

Flop (9K): K83
Checks around

Turn: 9
I check, V bets 4500, I call

River (18K): T
Hero?

I think when V checks back flop he's has a lot of AT-AQ, TT-QQ. Unsure how often he's checking back top pair or slowplaying AA. I checked turn think he'd bet with most of his range, including A-high bluffs. On river, is it better to lead trying to get value from Kx/AA, or check hoping he continues with bluffs? Given my read that V is mostly ABC, I don't think he has a very high double barrel frequency here.
250K guaranteed- lead with rivered two pair? Quote
12-06-2018 , 09:51 AM
The board is so dry on the flop I think villain can check with anything here (including 88+/AK).

Once you check call on turn your hand is way under-repped and looks like it could be any draw. Very unlikely Kx.

If villain has a big hand like AA or AK I think he always bets it for value as virtually no draws came in (QJ and 76s being the exceptions). I'm not sure how frequently villain bluffs with hands like AQ/AJ because they have some showdown value against missed flushes.

Similarly it doesn't sound like villain would raise the river on a bluff and it is extremely unlikely he has a straight. Would villain raise with a set? I think if we lead the river we have to be prepared to fold to a raise.

I think we do better to bet the river about 10k because I think there are too many hands that villain has that he checks back.
250K guaranteed- lead with rivered two pair? Quote
12-06-2018 , 12:33 PM
7000
250K guaranteed- lead with rivered two pair? Quote
12-06-2018 , 12:38 PM
Whatever the max amount {QQ, JJ} will call. 6-8k.
250K guaranteed- lead with rivered two pair? Quote
12-07-2018 , 07:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Rick
I think if we lead the river we have to be prepared to fold to a raise.
^ Key point imo
250K guaranteed- lead with rivered two pair? Quote
12-07-2018 , 10:12 AM
Bet turn
250K guaranteed- lead with rivered two pair? Quote
12-09-2018 , 11:21 AM
You are goofing by not betting turn. I would lead turn here. I like the flop check though. I feel with your line as played, I would check river and turn your hand into a bluff catcher.

If you lead river, and he has a straight or set, you prolly get raised and will be in a disgusting spot. I would just check and give your opponent the ability to spazz if you think villian will stab at it. If opponent is not aggro and will never bet worse here, I like a small thin value bet. Maybe like 30-70% of pot. If you do this, prolly have to fold to a raise/jam.
250K guaranteed- lead with rivered two pair? Quote

      
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