$250 live NLHM
300/600/300
My Stack: 30k
Opponent: 55k

Villain. Okay TAG. Seems like he’s green to tournaments (staring at flops for a long time when pre-raiser, slightly visibly nervous in post flop play). Been at my table for about 30 minutes. Playing modestly tight (seeing about 25% of flops). Hasn’t gotten out of line and no real notable hands to report. Table playing that 200 dollar tournament passive route, many players limp calling raises.

Hero image is tight, maybe even nitty. I’ve been card dead before and after this guy got to my table.

Pre-Action:
Hero: BB with Ac 8h
Villain: MP1 (limp)
CO: limp call
SB: limp call

Flop: As Ks 8d (Pot = 2700)
Hero: bet 2000
MP1: call
CO, SB fold

Turn: As Ks 8d 3c (Pot = 6700)
Hero: 5k
MP1: call

River: As Ks 8d 3c 2h (Pot = 16,700)
Hero: bet 10k
MP1: Raise ALL-In

If the turn or river was scary, I think I could have gotten away. But flopping 2-pair with a dry turn and river runout, my thought is that I would have gladly shipped on the flop given different stack sizes if he raised all in, what’s different now with a 3 and 2 on the turn and river.

Are you folding here?

60% of your stack is already in, so not folding. You will see AK and particularly KK quite a bit, but he had enough A3, A2, etc... combos and perhaps a small chance of random spew/missed draw to make it a call given pot odds.

I don't like your bet sizing on the river. I can get behind your 3/4 pot bets on the Flop and Turn given you are trying to protect vs. a possible flush draw. OTR, I prefer 7,000-8,000 though - something AT or A9 can actually call...

I don’t see any bluffs in your opponents range here. Maybe 33 that floated you or some weird limped called strong hand. Weird spot.

Not folding.

Yea not folding based on how much you have put in. Maybe villian is really bad and has a3 or a2. Don’t think you are getting many floats from 4/5. Feel like villian is going to have a set here.... can’t see a big bluff when you bet 3 streets like stated.

This is one reason I don’t like playing limped pots. It’s very awkard but not much you can do here. I like your flop and turn sizing. Not sure what I would do here but feel fold is tough. I agree with previous poster stating sizing on river is a tad too big. Not sure what we are called with here that you beat.

Leading isn’t a thing here on a83

I would never lead this flop since we can’t have AA KK or AK and limper can trap them also I don’t want to play a bloated pot this deep of spr because when a ton of money goes in we are often coolered imo this deep u can really stack off very tight imo a limped pot multi-way

I look for 2 streets value

I Also wouldn’t be folding following suit to the points made above considering you see the random worse two pair for value from time to time and it seems so hard for him to have you beat here. Maybe you see the occasional AK but AA or KK seems like a long shot. As for prior streets, you put yourself in a really awkward river spot with these bet sizings. Particularly the turn and river seem way too big imo, and vs his range here you struggle to collect calls otr or the turn for that matter. Personally I would bet something like 3k ott then like 5.5k otr and try to get called by an ace and if you’re lucky a king. I normally don’t mind leading in multi way limped pots but I strongly advise to use caution on these high/high/low boards especially Ace high ones as you’ll find yourself in awkward spots a lot and simply you just don’t have the range to support it.

I am fine with the way it's been played. I also think the river should be a bet/call. villain peeling the flop with 33 is a real longshot. Especially with a few players to act behind.

It's possible that he limped KK, but it's more like that you are looking at Ax or a flush draw. AA should be discounted because we have an Ace as well.

Shoving the river by him is kind of a weird spot, but you are pretty close to the top of your range. Except having 88.

What reasonable hands can he have, 54s? You are more likely to be facing A3/A2 than 54s.

I think leading flop isn't terrible as we can easily have all of the A8/K8/88 combos and lots of draws. With A8 specifically we block AA which is the most likely trap combo. There are plenty of worse pairs and draws that will peel at least once, and we can get value from those before the board changes in ways they don't like.

As played I don't mind jamming river if we think our opponent (who cover us) has any hero tendencies at all. Villain may have one combo of AA, one combo of 88 but lots of worse two pairs and Ax. I really discount KK and AK as most players who have limping strategies tend not to limp those hands.

This is one of the best hands in our range (maybe we have 5s4s or 5d4d, maybe 88 some % of the time) and the fact we could play our busted flush draws this way leads me to think we can get called by worse two pair or even naked Ax quite a bit.

If we do bet smaller on the river, we 100% have to be prepared to call off if we get jammed on.

What do you expect to get called by / how often do you actually think you get called when we use a 1.5x pot river jam. To be fair when you bet a size on the turn such as 5k I expect villian to be somewhat committed to this pot unless he has a flush draw. Something to note as well is how deep everyone is. Yes we have a the top of our range here as played but that doesn’t mean we are getting a full double up here. I would strictly target the limpers weak range here and try to bet sizes on the turn or river that are going to get called more often. Fwiw as well I would never use flush draws to bluff as those are the hands we want villian to have by the river that will fold. And like I said when you use a size on the turn that is likely committing villian I would strongly advise not to unload the clip. Also while we are at it the low flush draws should not be leads or even check raises simply because when you get there you will run into better flushes a % of the time and I like to control the size of the pot with these.