QJ's against a shoving range of 41% has 50.27% equity yielding +151,250 in chip EV. That's if the SB is shoving perfectly according to Nash. Considering that ICMizer cannot take into consideration that the CO opened to 75,000 and hero calling we had to run the algorithm slightly differently so it's safe assume a few things. If ICMizer could, the range would be tighter.
In addition, during my time as a poker player I have noticed that most players are not well versed in the outer limits of short stack shoving ranges to properly shove a range of 41%. Which is why I made my own range in equilab on what a reasonably competent player would be shoving from the SB with this stack size, and then ran it through ICMizer to get an idea of what Nash should be compared to my estimate...
Here is a break down of what 41% looks like with card removal...
KK+, TT-22, QhQs, QhQc, QsQc, JhJs, JhJc, JsJc, AKs, ATs-A2s, KTs-K2s, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, AhQh, AsQs, AcQc, KhQh, KsQs, KcQc, AhJh, AsJs, AcJc, KhJh, KsJs, KcJc, QhJh, QsJs, QcJc, QhTh, QsTs, QcTc, JhTh, JsTs, JcTc, Qh9h, Qs9s, Qc9c, Jh9h, Js9s, Jc9c, Qh8h, Qs8s, Qc8c, Jh8h, Js8s, Jc8c, Qh7h, Qs7s, Qc7c, Jh7h, Js7s, Jc7c, Qh6h, Qs6s, Qc6c, Jh6h, Js6s, Jc6c, Qh5h, Qs5s, Qc5c, Qh4h, Qs4s, Qc4c, AKo, ATo-A2o, KTo-K7o, T8o+, AdQh, AdQs, AdQc, AhQs, AhQc, AsQh, AsQc, AcQh, AcQs, AdJh, AdJs, AdJc, AhJs, AhJc, AsJh, AsJc, AcJh, AcJs, KdQh, KdQs, KdQc, KhQs, KhQc, KsQh, KsQc, KcQh, KcQs, KdJh, KdJs, KdJc, KhJs, KhJc, KsJh, KsJc, KcJh, KcJs, QhJs, QhJc, QsJh, QsJc, QcJh, QcJs, QhTd, QhTs, QhTc, QsTd, QsTh, QsTc, QcTd, QcTh, QcTs, Qh9d, Qh9s, Qh9c, Qs9d, Qs9h, Qs9c, Qc9d, Qc9h, Qc9s, Qh8d, Qh8s, Qh8c, Qs8d, Qs8h, Qs8c, Qc8d, Qc8h, Qc8s, JhTd, JhTs, JhTc, JsTd, JsTh, JsTc, JcTd, JcTh, JcTs, Jh9d, Jh9s, Jh9c, Js9d, Js9h, Js9c, Jc9d, Jc9h, Jc9s, Jh8d, Jh8s, Jh8c, Js8d, Js8h, Js8c, Jc8d, Jc8h, Jc8s.
I think it's safe to say that there are certain hand combos that we can take out...
T7s+, 97s+, 87s, Jh8h, Js8s, Jc8c, Jh7h, Js7s, Jc7c, Qh6h, Qs6s, Qc6c, Jh6h, Js6s, Jc6c, Qh5h, Qs5s, Qc5c, Qh4h, Qs4s, Qc4c, Qh3h, Qs3s, Qc3c, Qh2h, Qs2s, Qc2c, T8o+, Jh9d, Jh9s, Jh9c, Js9d, Js9h, Js9c, Jc9d, Jc9h, Jc9s, Jh8d, Jh8s, Jh8c, Js8d, Js8h, Js8c, Jc8d, Jc8h, Jc8s... Most players fold these in the SB instead of shoving.
Without these hands... QJs has now 46% which gives us 111,150 in chip ev...
But this is still pretty wide in my honest opinion of what most players in the SB are capable of shoving.
The final range I gave SB gave our QJ's roughly 42% equity resulting in +71,050 in chip ev or 2.36bb, worst case Ontario... Which is good from a chip ev standpoint.
So you're right. From a cEV standpoint this is a call. I also think the weaker a player is, the more I would advocate a call in a spot like this...
You brought up a good point.
I guess I've just either folded in spots like this, or jammed over the CO's (player dependent) open which has never really allowed me to contemplate something like this.
I'm thinking about what hands I would stack off with here because I flatted... And going through the mental motions I think I don't really have big flatting range at this stack depth considering the action and the CO, Button, SB, BB dynamics. The only hands I could see flatting here might be AA,KK,QQ, and maybe AK with an extremely low frequency to induce which is rare.
Hmmm. I'm kind of torn. This is pretty close in my mind now and depending on the wind I could see myself calling off here sometimes...
I'm gonna run this by some other people and see what they say.
I wonder if jamming over the CO is better.