A friend is playing the party poker grand prix at Kings in Rozvadov.
He played this hand like 10 minutes ago and wrote me because he wasnt sure if this is a call or fold.

2 minutes after the bubble bursts...

17,5k/35K, BB ante 35k

Co raises 75k, hero (900k) calls otb with QJs, sb shoves 425k, folds to hero.
No info on villain. Is this a call?

No.

Could you please explain why not?

Run the math on it. QJ's against a pretty liberal sb shoving range is at best 34% if not worse...

If we construct a range ourselves...
It's not a good idea here to stack off here. Just an example, even having 9's here is about 47% against the sb's shoving range. 10's is 52%. Whether we edit Villains range to be liberal at 15% or conservative at 9%, either way your equity with QJ's is below 40% depending on what range he's shoving with.

After running this through a program, and doing my best to infer stack sizes and whatnot, according to Nash, SB should be shoving 41% which is probably wider than most peoples ability to shove in spots like that.

If villain shoves with 41% according to nash, your calling range (8.0%) 66+,ATs+,AJo+ and QJ's is not apart of that range and -EV. The tighter the SB shoves, the more -EV calling off with QJ's becomes.

TY for this. I was gonna say SB should be shoving crazy wide in this spot, didn't realize it was that wide though. I'm not sure where your equity #'s are coming from, though. Did you run these ranges vs QJs through Equilab?

From a purely cEV perspective this is a lot closer than people ITT think. Against the Nash range suggested above we're literally 50/50 and a call yields over 4bb in EV. Against a really wide range of {22+,A2s+,K9s+,Q9s+,JTs,T9s,A9o+,KTo+,QJo} we're 42% and yielding close to 2bb in EV with a call. Against a tighter range of {66+,A5s+,KTs+,QTs+,T9s,ATo+,KJo+,QJo} we're 39% and yield a bit over 1bb with a call. There's quite a bit of dead money out there.

That being said, still prob a fold because 1. Our EV is capped compared to other spots we're going to encounter due to us not having fold equity anymore and 2. Folding and still having 24bb means we have a large enough stack to find an even more +EV spot than this one. If we call and lose, we're probably limited to playing push/fold which hampers our ability to find spots more +EV spots--we can definitely do better than 4bb w/ a 24bb stack (we can play however we want at that depth), not so much the case if we call and lose.

Think it's hard to argue that a call isn't at least marginally +EV, we only need 36% equity to break even. Even against {88+,ATs+,KQs, AJo+} we're almost there, and there's no way in hell V is that tight. This is more about opportunity cost and how we feel about our skill edge in this event. Wouldn't hate a call at all if we're at a disadvantage and honest with ourselves about it.

I made a range myself with Equilab... I just made a rough estimate of what hands the majority of players would be willing to shove 12 BB here given the action. I know this isn't an exact science given all the variables so in addition...

I ran it through ICMizer as well. ICMizer shot me back the SB Nash shoving range as well as what your calling range should be against his shoving range.

The thing is almost nobody shoves perfectly according to Nash and in a spot like this the SB is shoving probably tighter than Nash here which means you have even less equity calling off with QJ here.

You're behind any Ax and Kx shoving hand here. You're flipping against 22-10's. Your 20% against overpairs. You're dominating Qx combos other than AQ,KQ, and QQ's and whatever SB's Qx shoving cuttoff is, the ones he is shoving with still have some equity against you. Programs like equilab or ICMizer then take all this into effect and give you your equity against the range provided. Which doesn't look good for QJs.

ICMizer in addition calculates the ICM implications and Future Gaming Simulations to give you an adjusted analysis with those variables than equilab cannot.

The range spat back out by ICMizer also does not take into consideration the open raise from the CO. It only allows to input you limping or raising and calling off a jam. So even though ICMizer gives us a sb shoving range of 41% we can surmise that because of the fact that most players are not capable of shoving that wide and if we apply the gap concept to the CO's opening range and you're flatting range the SB is shoving tighter.

Even IF the SB shove perfectly according to Nash at 41% (which SB isn't) due to the ICM implications and Future Gaming simulations you're calling range should be 8%.

Logically if your calling range is 8% given a 41% jam, imagine what that does to your calling range given he is probably shoving tighter in reality.

The problem here is you're not gaining enough in EV as much as you're risking with QJs... If you lose, you're at a severe deficient with less than 10bb in a bb ante tournament.

Needing 38% equity to break even... I assume you are calculating the pot odds to get that number. Lets find out...

Sb 17,500+BB 30,000 + Ante 30,000 = 77,500

77,500+ CO raise 75,000 + your call 75000 = 227,500

227,500+ SB Jam of 425,000=652,500 ... Now to calculate PO.

You need to call 350,000 to complete sooo...

Risk/(risk+reward)= %
350,000/(350,000+652,500)= 35% You're getting 1.9:1 pot odds. You need 35% to break even... But that's the problem. This equation works for cash games. Each chip is not worth 1:1 monetarily. They are worth less, which means you need even more equity to be breaking even, and this is something that ICMizer takes into consideration.
Trading stack sizes with the SB should you lose is not worth the risk considering what you gain from it. You’re stack is healthy enough to wait for better spots and should those better spots come, doubling up from a stack depth of 22 or 18 or 17 bb is much more valuable than doubling back to equal or less than where you’re stack currently sits at. This is not a close call in any regard.

I hope this makes sense to you. Please let me know if you have any questions about this. I’d be happy to delve further into this. Also, if you need help studying spots like this or need help getting these calculations back in IMCizer or equilab let me know. I’d be happy to help you construct ranges in some of these programs.
Thanks for posting this hand. Keep posting spots like this. GL my friend!!!

Also if any on lookers notice anything suspect in my reasoning provided, please let know.

Thanks!

Yeah that's why I explicitly referred to cEV and that this spot ultimately comes down to opportunity cost--how we weight the relative importance of losing vs gaining chips, particularly wrt our perception of our edge.

TBH this isn't something anyone can figure out because OP hasn't told us how good his friend is relative to this field, or what stage the event is in (ITM or not? If so, how far?), or whether OP's friend needs a few payjumpts to make rent this month, or...

So absent any info that would make me think OP's friend really, really needs to avoid passing up clearly +cEV spots (in some favorable cases, really really high +cEV) in favor of survival, I'm going to go ahead and believe that ICM pressures aren't too heavy yet. So we can play these spots closer to cEV in that case.

All this is a moot point because I said this is probably mostly a fold.

But it's by no means a 100% fold, nor is it a particularly easy decision. This seems like a live event. If OP's friend has some live read of weakness, or just believes SB is spewy and jamming alll sorts of BS here, then OP's friend should totally call.

QJ's against a shoving range of 41% has 50.27% equity yielding +151,250 in chip EV. That's if the SB is shoving perfectly according to Nash. Considering that ICMizer cannot take into consideration that the CO opened to 75,000 and hero calling we had to run the algorithm slightly differently so it's safe assume a few things. If ICMizer could, the range would be tighter.

In addition, during my time as a poker player I have noticed that most players are not well versed in the outer limits of short stack shoving ranges to properly shove a range of 41%. Which is why I made my own range in equilab on what a reasonably competent player would be shoving from the SB with this stack size, and then ran it through ICMizer to get an idea of what Nash should be compared to my estimate...

Here is a break down of what 41% looks like with card removal...

KK+, TT-22, QhQs, QhQc, QsQc, JhJs, JhJc, JsJc, AKs, ATs-A2s, KTs-K2s, T7s+, 97s+, 87s, AhQh, AsQs, AcQc, KhQh, KsQs, KcQc, AhJh, AsJs, AcJc, KhJh, KsJs, KcJc, QhJh, QsJs, QcJc, QhTh, QsTs, QcTc, JhTh, JsTs, JcTc, Qh9h, Qs9s, Qc9c, Jh9h, Js9s, Jc9c, Qh8h, Qs8s, Qc8c, Jh8h, Js8s, Jc8c, Qh7h, Qs7s, Qc7c, Jh7h, Js7s, Jc7c, Qh6h, Qs6s, Qc6c, Jh6h, Js6s, Jc6c, Qh5h, Qs5s, Qc5c, Qh4h, Qs4s, Qc4c, AKo, ATo-A2o, KTo-K7o, T8o+, AdQh, AdQs, AdQc, AhQs, AhQc, AsQh, AsQc, AcQh, AcQs, AdJh, AdJs, AdJc, AhJs, AhJc, AsJh, AsJc, AcJh, AcJs, KdQh, KdQs, KdQc, KhQs, KhQc, KsQh, KsQc, KcQh, KcQs, KdJh, KdJs, KdJc, KhJs, KhJc, KsJh, KsJc, KcJh, KcJs, QhJs, QhJc, QsJh, QsJc, QcJh, QcJs, QhTd, QhTs, QhTc, QsTd, QsTh, QsTc, QcTd, QcTh, QcTs, Qh9d, Qh9s, Qh9c, Qs9d, Qs9h, Qs9c, Qc9d, Qc9h, Qc9s, Qh8d, Qh8s, Qh8c, Qs8d, Qs8h, Qs8c, Qc8d, Qc8h, Qc8s, JhTd, JhTs, JhTc, JsTd, JsTh, JsTc, JcTd, JcTh, JcTs, Jh9d, Jh9s, Jh9c, Js9d, Js9h, Js9c, Jc9d, Jc9h, Jc9s, Jh8d, Jh8s, Jh8c, Js8d, Js8h, Js8c, Jc8d, Jc8h, Jc8s.

I think it's safe to say that there are certain hand combos that we can take out...
T7s+, 97s+, 87s, Jh8h, Js8s, Jc8c, Jh7h, Js7s, Jc7c, Qh6h, Qs6s, Qc6c, Jh6h, Js6s, Jc6c, Qh5h, Qs5s, Qc5c, Qh4h, Qs4s, Qc4c, Qh3h, Qs3s, Qc3c, Qh2h, Qs2s, Qc2c, T8o+, Jh9d, Jh9s, Jh9c, Js9d, Js9h, Js9c, Jc9d, Jc9h, Jc9s, Jh8d, Jh8s, Jh8c, Js8d, Js8h, Js8c, Jc8d, Jc8h, Jc8s... Most players fold these in the SB instead of shoving.

Without these hands... QJs has now 46% which gives us 111,150 in chip ev...

But this is still pretty wide in my honest opinion of what most players in the SB are capable of shoving.
The final range I gave SB gave our QJ's roughly 42% equity resulting in +71,050 in chip ev or 2.36bb, worst case Ontario... Which is good from a chip ev standpoint.

So you're right. From a cEV standpoint this is a call. I also think the weaker a player is, the more I would advocate a call in a spot like this...

You brought up a good point.

I guess I've just either folded in spots like this, or jammed over the CO's (player dependent) open which has never really allowed me to contemplate something like this.

I'm thinking about what hands I would stack off with here because I flatted... And going through the mental motions I think I don't really have big flatting range at this stack depth considering the action and the CO, Button, SB, BB dynamics. The only hands I could see flatting here might be AA,KK,QQ, and maybe AK with an extremely low frequency to induce which is rare.

Hmmm. I'm kind of torn. This is pretty close in my mind now and depending on the wind I could see myself calling off here sometimes...

I'm gonna run this by some other people and see what they say.

I wonder if jamming over the CO is better.

This isn't a good assumption TBH.

SB jammer is a shortie. The fact he's encountered a true squeeze spot is itself a minor miracle. He should be angling to jam so wide here it's absurd. Like any two suited T and up, all SCs, etc. There's 1/2 his stack in dead money in the pot before he even acts. A CO opens and the BTN flats, one opponent to act behind with a random hand. Wide ranges, a ****load of dead money, a big enough stack to still get tons of folds--this is like the most perfect squeeze spot possible, if you aren't taking this spot w/ like 40% of your starting hands or more then you're leaving chips on the table. So SB really is quite wide here.

The more I think about it, the more I want to snap call actually. We are very likely 50%+ hot/cold equity

OP that's my final decision. Call all day.

That's not how tournament math works...

Taking those hands out I think is a pretty accurate assumption...

In theory and math wise you're right. SB should be jamming wide here. ICMizer told us that, and I agree to an extent. Again, ICMizer only takes into consideration Hero raising to 75k. Knowing what I know about ICM solvers, I think if it could it would give us a tighter shoving range. So I constructed one and took out combos that players tend to over look.

Like I pointed out, I really don't give the SB credit for jamming properly in spots like this.

I mean if you want to run the numbers. Go ahead. But I'm not sold on it considering the tournament ICM implications and future play-ability.

The irony is that I ran this through ICMizer with no ICM payout inputs either. I'm sure if I had those values, the answer would change to being tighter. The part I find very useful is the the proper calling range ICMizer gave hero in this spot was 8%... We seem to be overlooking that.

What is our 2.25bb call folding range for 10-14 bb? I think QJs falls into that range. I think QJ's can also merge into a shove over the CO.

I don't think having many flats here is a good idea. QJ's is a shove or fold here. But not a call and then stack-off...

You're really dead set on a random SB being able to shove 41% here? Nah. I just don't buy it. Even if 1 out of ten randoms in this tournament can properly shove 41% here it doesn't out-weigh the times you get caught stacking off light against a more realistic range.

Fold... Live to fight another day. There are better spots ahead where you have more fold equity, and with that fold equity, more range polarization leading to more combos of someone calling you being dominated, as well being able to double up to a healthier stack size instead of doubling too or below your 22bb stack size...

Please tell me how "tournament math" works wrt hot/cold equity. Doesn't matter what game format you're playing, if you take QJs and you take a 40% linear range, and you run out a billion boards, QJ wins half, villain wins the other.

I don't care what the computer says. Take off your nit hat and gamble a little bit. As you saw yourself, we're talking an EASY ~2bb +cEV, and if V is shoving as wide as I think he is (we'll just have to agree to disagree, I think it's ridiculous to rule out 97s as a sqz, or Q2s, or J8s but if you really refuse to believe that w/e--look through your hand histories I guarantee you'll see multiple examples of a ~12bb stack sqz with those types of hands in the SB) then we're talking upwards of +4.2bb.

We need to extract EV from this thing, that doesn't mean we play stupid, but it does mean we can't just scoff at 2.0-4.2 +cEV opportunities for a total price of 10bb. So I'm still convinced folding is too tight. Saying trite things like "live another day" is even more absurd when you consider that we can lose this hand and still have more chips than SB did starting this hand.

Uhm, I'm not sure if I'm just way off, but here's the quick result I got for cEV:

https://www.icmpoker.com/icmizer/#SUxDQC

I was mistaken as I replied in a hurry. After doing the math looks like it's an easy call actually.

Pot+call/call=odds
662500/35000=2.8

One/odds=equity %
1/2.8=.34 or 34%

Basically vs 44+/AJ+ is 37%

But with 34% to begin with we're calling pretty quickly.

Sorry for that bad first reply.

@livingabortion "This equation works for cash games. Each chip is not worth 1:1 monetarily. They are worth less, which means you need even more equity to be breaking even,"

.... I did not know this and that's super interesting.

Nevertheless...

If you grind the tournament circuit and find these droolers who shove this spot way to wide you're gonna find this is a good call often enough.

The dead money is pretty much going to tip this into a call every time. When I'm making these decisions at a live table basically <39% = dead money = big pot .... I'm calling off pretty wide if I have a stack 30bb> ...

In the above hand it's like a 30bb pot! Even without our call it's like an 18bb pot. That's pretty sweet if we can go from 30bb to 50bb. That makes a difference with our comfort at the table.

Yeah I've been thinking about this hand for a few days now. I think you can call here and be fine. I do think QJ's plays better as a shove or 3-bet to 5-7bb, simply to avoid spots like this. I often take lines that force me not to be exploited if I fold and jamming or raising to 5-7bb is one of them. Opening to 5-7bb and not stacking off to SB's jam is realllllly bad.

As played, I fold here for the reasons I stated above and I don't think those are unreasonable arguments to fold. I don't think your passing up to much considering your future play-ability, fold equity, range polarity at a higher bb-ratio, and m-ratio. These things are important to me when assessing risk. If I was deeper I would call here but not at 22 bb.

Honestly either way works though.

@nonsimplesimon As far as the equation goes. The equation is still useful and needed in tournaments for calculating hot/cold equity like jl121 pointed out. But it doesn't take into consideration the risk considerations involved with your tournament life or ICM. If you want to learn more about this my recommendation is to grab a coffee and stop by barnes and noble and read the first chapter of Collin Moshmans book "Sit N Go Strategy." No need to buy it unless you plan on grinding sng's but seeking it out to read the first or second chapter is worth it. The definition and breakdown of this is perfect and worth the quick 15-20 minute read.

https://www.twoplustwo.com/books/pok...d-go-strategy/

I’ve noticed that short stacks are extra excited to get it in right after the bubble bursts. Makes the call more attractive.

If you think this particular villain is not squeezing with anything worse than his broadways and medium pairs, I can see folding as this might be a slightly losing play vs. that range. But versus standard players w/o reads this is pretty much always a call.

I do think at our stack depth mixing some 3-bet/gii and flats is fine, primarily flatting. Maybe we can have a 3-bet/non-gii range, but that would probably be premiums plus hands not quite good enough to flat or shove.

@@livingabortion "my recommendation is to grab a coffee and stop by barnes and noble and read the first chapter of Collin Moshmans book "Sit N Go Strategy." No need to buy it"

Three bet pre

Hi guys!

I'm the hero who played the hand at last week's party poker grand prix tournament at kings casino rozvadov. Buy in 220€ around 3600 starters and we are down to 359 players and ITM!

The hand the thread is discussing about happened the very first hand after the bubble burst!

Information to the player in the sb: he was around 35 years old from Greece, playing solid TAG style, seen him shoving once over my hijack open and once sb vs bb first in but also seen him folding sb vs bb! I'm pretty sure he is good enough to realize that wonderful squeezing spot!
I tanked quite long ingame, realizing that it's a very close spot with all the dead money in the pot! While tanking I could not get any live read on him as he's sitting like a stone in his seat!

I folded after a couple of minutes as future game considerations led me come to the conclusions that it's more import to save my healthy stack at this point of the tournament (AVG stack size dropped to around 20bb approaching the bubble, and was between 25-30bb for most of the tournament).
After the tournament I thought a lot about the hand and I think best way for this spot would be to 3bet pre (did not 3bet much before), which would commit me to call of his shove, or would discourage him from shoving garbage!

All in all it looked like the right decision as I could drive my stack through the tournament finishing in position 14 for a 3500€ payday!

Thank you for your brilliant analysis, helped me a lot! Keep up the good work!

as a general rule you can still raise/fold at 15BB and 3bet/fold at 20BB, there's no need to stack off in the face of a cold 4-bet from blinds

stack sizes of SB BB CO are particularly important, but may still allow something like a 185k(/fold) -> small c-bet line, which risks a reasonable amount, still avoids light SB/BB squeezes, puts pressure on CO and (QJ) connects with a large % of boards.

wd on the deep run in a big event.

3 Bet fold with 20BB seems bad. I guess if the open is 2BB, and you make it something like 5BB, you can fold. 20BB seems like a much better 3 bet shove stack than a 3bet/gii/fold size.

the 15BB r/f and 20BB 3!/f guidelines are a minimum for sure

like any rules, they're subject to other factors - in particular V stacks, V open sizing, V VPIP/PFR/FT3B

75k open is close enough to be considered a 2BB open, so I wouldn't make much of an adjustment from 20BB and Hero stack is more than adequate to consider 185k/f as one possible line

equally happy to fold, only options I dislike here are flat and shove. Flat is too passive and hands all initiative to blinds (squeeze) and V (cbet), forcing Hero to play fit/fold potentially dominated. shove is marginally better but risks too much against 3 uncapped ranges.

EYYYYYY! Hey man hope you went deep. Thanks for putting the hand out there!

3-bet or fold. Flat and then calling is no buen buen's.