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 ICM FT spot 25bb shove calling range?  ICM FT spot 25bb shove calling range?

01-16-2018 , 09:04 AM
Bit of an ICM noob here - have never even used ICMizer
Small field $22 mtt on 888 poker

Payouts:
4th - $230
3rd - $311
2nd - $406
1st - $588

Stack sizes:
CO - 36 BB
BU - 10 BB
SB - 129 BB
BB (me) - 25 BB

SB has monster stack, running over table crazy ICM pressure on all stacks running at 34/33/20 shoves 25bb from SB into my big blind

Hero has ATo, in game I thought this was a relatively clear fold due to the 10bb stack, however we can assume villain is shoving super wide and due to the small field, the pay jumps aren't that big?

Reviewing this hand can someone give me a better insight into what your calling range would be here? I'm sure its a clear fold in bigger field tournaments but what about when the pay jumps are not so big?

Thanks
(sorry if this should have been in low stakes section, wasn't sure)
 ICM FT spot 25bb shove calling range? Quote
01-17-2018 , 05:05 AM
usually when its for a large percentage of your stack and its close we can err on the side of caution to account for skill factor esp w icm factors involved. I would let it go here. I think I would be pretty hard pressed to fold AJs+99+ AJo sometimes call and sometimes fold
 ICM FT spot 25bb shove calling range? Quote
01-17-2018 , 11:01 AM
With the short stack in play, this looks like an ICM fold, unless we think SB is pushing a ridiculous number of hands. (and is, quite frankly, smart enough to do so as he should be putting ridiculous pressure on us given stacks and payouts)

We gain some stack utility by doubling up and being the second-largest stack at the table, though, so I can see an argument for a call.
 ICM FT spot 25bb shove calling range? Quote
01-17-2018 , 11:45 AM
Based on Hero's description of V I don't see why we're waiting for 10% hands to call. I understand the argument for ICM, which makes the decision close, but I think this is leaning more towards a call than a fold.
 ICM FT spot 25bb shove calling range? Quote
01-17-2018 , 01:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by HawkesDave
Based on Hero's description of V I don't see why we're waiting for 10% hands to call. I understand the argument for ICM, which makes the decision close, but I think this is leaning more towards a call than a fold.
If the villain is jamming a ridiculous amount of hands here (knowing that we don't want to call light due to the existence of a short stack) I can see an argument for calling wider than normal. But even if villain is opening half of his hands we're only about 60% with ATo, which sounds good but I believe is a losing play ICM-wise.

So I think we have to justify the call by either a.) believing there's some stack utility to having 50BB and/or b.) thinking our opponent might even be wider than that. I think there's enough merit to either of those points to suggest calling might be ok.
 ICM FT spot 25bb shove calling range? Quote
01-17-2018 , 02:47 PM
The pay jump from 4th to 3rd is not that high, that shouldn't play that big a role in your decision making, maybe if both players were severely short stacked then we could argue a fold, but in this case I feel like you have to call and put a stop to this bully! If he's been putting a lot of pressure on, you have to think he's raising your blind with any Ax and maybe even any Kx, and all suited connectors and broadway cards. A10 crushes that entire range with only about 10 hands that have you in bad shape.
 ICM FT spot 25bb shove calling range? Quote
01-18-2018 , 09:16 AM
Let's do the math, considering pay table, let's do icm.

Right now:

CO - 36 BB $384,64
BU - 10 BB $283,85
SB - 129 BB $514,27
BB (me) - 25 BB $352,23

If we call, and lose, obviously we receive $230. (4º)
If we call, and win, this will be our new scenario (I don't consider antes because there aren't specified):

CO - 36 BB old $384,64 NEW: $372,53
BU - 10 BB old $283,85 NEW: $275,11
SB - old 129BB NEW: 104 BB old $514,27 NEW: $482,98
me - old 25BB NEW: 50 BB old $352,23 NEW: $404,39

So, if we fold we'll have $352,23, if we call and lose we'll have $230. If we call and win, $404,39.

So, we're risking 352,23 - 230 = $122,23
To try to win a total pot of 404,39 - 230 = $174,39

Easy, we need: 122,23 / 174,39 = 0,70 70% equity vs villain range to call!!!

If villain shoves ANYTWO cards, 100% range, ATo has 62,7% equity... It's clearly fold.
 ICM FT spot 25bb shove calling range? Quote
01-18-2018 , 03:21 PM
Assuming he shoves ATC, which he probably is, then this is a call.

https://imgur.com/a/BWoo6
 ICM FT spot 25bb shove calling range? Quote
01-18-2018 , 07:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by persianpunisher
Assuming he shoves ATC, which he probably is, then this is a call.

https://imgur.com/a/BWoo6

You sure put correct prize structure?

I think I made correct icm calculation.

Please, help!

Maybe changes assuming we lose one bb if fold. I gave us 25bb if fold. but...
 ICM FT spot 25bb shove calling range? Quote
01-18-2018 , 09:23 PM
I put it the numbers on HoldemResources, with right prize structure.
This is the result:

https://imgur.com/a/VbtbA

vs villain push anytwo... FOLD EVEN AKs!!! We can call only with 3,2% (88+)
 ICM FT spot 25bb shove calling range? Quote
01-18-2018 , 10:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rsk46
I put it the numbers on HoldemResources, with right prize structure.
This is the result:

https://imgur.com/a/VbtbA

vs villain push anytwo... FOLD EVEN AKs!!! We can call only with 3,2% (88+)
Put in the wrong 4th place. Thanks for running it.
 ICM FT spot 25bb shove calling range? Quote
01-19-2018 , 10:57 AM
wow, even AK a fold, didnt think that! thanks for the help guys
 ICM FT spot 25bb shove calling range? Quote

      
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