Been doing some thinking lately regarding MTTs in the Live arena...

I play on many sites online, but the one I play on the most I have played around 4500 tournaments and I'm a profitable player.

However, I'm coming off a recent downswing in live events. (I've joked that this was the 'summer of the bubble' for me)...

So started doubting myself, like we tend to do during downswings about rather my MTT strategies were good. Then I realized that if they weren't at least fundamentally correct then I would be a losing player online as well.

Then I realized that if I played 2 live tourneys a week. That would be more or less 100 tourneys a year. I would have to do that for 45 years to reach the same amount of tourneys I've played online in only about 4 years. (which even 4500 isn't really a big enough sample size)

Is there no reachable "long term" when it comes to live MTT?

Luckily my live downswing is over and I've cashed in the last three live events I played, but trying to come up with a better game plan when it comes to LIVE MTTs. I'm thinking they should be more of a "lottery ticket" type of situation rather than a main focus.

Looking forward to see what other folks thoughts on this are.

If we are talking higher buy in really good structured live tourneys then you should have much less variance then online. Even 300-1500 buyins live, online is tougher competition, and less information is available.

I totally agree that live tournaments are much softer in general - not arguing that.

If by "variance is lower" you mean you have a higher winrate then you are correct, variance is obviously not lower just because your edge is higher though.

You are right, there's no long term in live mtts. If you play enough different buyin levels there's not really a long term in online mtts either, by the time you've set a sample that means anything you and/or the games will have changed enough that the sample is partially irrelevant to what you can expect after it.

Yeah, I think he meant the edge is higher. Variance is variance.

I do agree about my edge being quite a bit higher in Live MTTs, but I can play 10 times as many online MTTs - so it's kind of a wash there. Plus no travel expenses when I play online. On the downside, I'm highly unlikely to win 100K+ in a single tourney online at the sites I play whereas it's a lot easier to do so in a live MTT.