215 $ Sunday Million Anniversary. please opinions on this hand - MTT Poker Strategy

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215 $ Sunday Million Anniversary. please opinions on this hand

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02-09-2018 , 03:01 AM

Galfondstyle

centurion

Join Date: Oct 2017 Posts: 103

[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $200 Buy-in (20,000/40,000 blinds, 5,000 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #37931135

Hero (MP3): 534,417 (13.4 bb)
CO: 415,572 (10.4 bb)
BTN: 621,930 (15.5 bb)
SB: 1,380,318 (34.5 bb)
BB: 980,443 (24.5 bb)
UTG+1: 2,146,716 (53.7 bb)
UTG+2: 2,547,585 (63.7 bb)
MP1: 1,522,156 (38.1 bb)
MP2: 998,245 (25 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q

UTG+1 raises to 80,000, 2 folds, MP2 raises to 993,245 and is all-in, Hero ????

What is the right play in that spot??

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02-09-2018 , 04:35 AM

OutPlayU27

old hand

Join Date: May 2013 Posts: 1,688

Never folding.
If this is the spot to double/triple up , I’ll take it.
Obv sucks to go so deep and bust, but you also wanna take the most +EV spots and try to take down the tournament, can’t really wait for premiums tho.
Also some info on the players will be nice, but don’t think I’m ever folding here imo.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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02-10-2018 , 12:45 AM

wowsooooted

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 5,077

looks like your way post bubble so I would be calling

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02-10-2018 , 01:42 AM

3for3poker

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2015 Posts: 1,502

I’ll go against the grain. At best flipping. I’d rather wait for some fold equity OR a flip.

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02-10-2018 , 02:46 AM

user12345

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2014 Posts: 3,737

Doubt it's even +cev spot assuming 3bettor has brains.

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02-10-2018 , 05:01 AM

OutPlayU27

old hand

Join Date: May 2013 Posts: 1,688

Quote:

Originally Posted by user12345

Doubt it's even +cev spot assuming 3bettor has brains.

Even if he has brains, we still make a +cEV call, HRC will say it´s +1,22

(88+,AJs+, AQo+)

Last edited by OutPlayU27; 02-10-2018 at 05:06 AM. Reason: youre welcome, you nit :)

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02-10-2018 , 05:52 AM

LOLCh1pPorn

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 4,580

Quote:

Originally Posted by OutPlayU27

Even if he has brains, we still make a +cEV call, HRC will say it´s +1,22

(88+,AJs+, AQo+)

What range did you give the 25bb rejammer vs UTG+1?

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02-10-2018 , 06:50 AM

OutPlayU27

old hand

Join Date: May 2013 Posts: 1,688

Quote:

Originally Posted by LOLCh1pPorn

What range did you give the 25bb rejammer vs UTG+1?

Obv people don´t shove correctly in this spots, but let´s say he jamms vs big stack something like 77+,ATs+,AJo+, KQs.
Math is math, even if he shows me KK, we can´t fold, and people do stupid **** all the time, and need to win some flips, if we want to make FT and cant be scared money.
Obv i´m not excited in this particular spot, but hey i´ll take it.
Maybe you can run some sims yourself, and prove me wrong, i´m always opened to suggestions, cus i´m also here to improve

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02-10-2018 , 07:14 AM

Galfondstyle

centurion

Join Date: Oct 2017 Posts: 103

First of all, thank all of you for your opinions.

Quote:

Originally Posted by 3for3poker

I’ll go against the grain. At best flipping. I’d rather wait for some fold equity OR a flip.

Before I took my decision, this was also one of my thoughts.
But after that I thought I had only 13 bb and couldn't wait for better hands much longer.
Only hand I'm dead against is AA, against any other reasonable hand I have minimum 30 % and mostly a coin flip.
That's why I called this.

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02-10-2018 , 11:47 AM

#10

LOLCh1pPorn

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 4,580

Quote:

Originally Posted by OutPlayU27

Maybe I`ll put it in HRC later but have to resub since I`m lazy reg

But AJs/AQo/88+ seems way more realistic of a rejam range MP vs UTG+1 imo (especially in anniversary mill as people tend to be more nitty, could be as tight as AQo/AQs/99 depending on villain) and in that case I imagine AQs becomes either the very bottom of our calling range nearing breakeven or top of our folding range (vs the nitty range in parenthesis clear fold obv)

Without info I might just muck, but maybe I`m the nit

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02-10-2018 , 11:53 AM

#11

LOLCh1pPorn

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 4,580

Quote:

Originally Posted by Galfondstyle

Only hand I'm dead against is AA, against any other reasonable hand I have minimum 30 % and mostly a coin flip.
That's why I called this.

You have to consider that if you`re gonna put in all your chips with only an ante invested and no fold equity, you want to be well ahead of his range. Also very small consideration still that UTG+1 wakes up with AK/QQ+ (like 2.5% of the time)

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02-17-2018 , 12:36 AM

#12

felixxx1021

journeyman

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 216

Quote:

Originally Posted by LOLCh1pPorn

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02-17-2018 , 03:16 PM

#13

bearer

old hand

Join Date: May 2011 Posts: 1,688

Quote:

Originally Posted by LOLCh1pPorn

You have to consider that if you`re gonna put in all your chips with only an ante invested and no fold equity, you want to be well ahead of his range. Also very small consideration still that UTG+1 wakes up with AK/QQ+ (like 2.5% of the time)

Is it not more like 22% of the time, given he opened UTG+1?

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02-18-2018 , 01:26 AM

#14

hitchens97

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 2,450

Quote:

Originally Posted by bearer

Is it not more like 22% of the time, given he opened UTG+1?

Yup, Bayes is your friend (or not).

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02-18-2018 , 02:36 PM

#15

LOLCh1pPorn

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 4,580

Quote:

Originally Posted by hitchens97

Yup, Bayes is your friend (or not).

sometimes tard

Last edited by LOLCh1pPorn; 02-18-2018 at 02:37 PM. Reason: coulda bluffed a mistype

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02-18-2018 , 02:50 PM

#16

Soepgroente

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 4,083

Normally close, super easy fold in this tournament given the tightened ranges and the extra edge you want to have. Often their jamrange is TT-QQ/AK here and nothing else.

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02-18-2018 , 03:16 PM

#17

HawkesDave

adept

Join Date: Jul 2016 Posts: 1,173

Amazing how poker has evolved over the last 15 years. Used to be that you'd never consider calling a 25bb/average stack shove over an EP raise (who still closes the action) late in a tournament to a cold 3b with AQs and now you have more people in this situation voting for it than voting there are voting against (I vote fold, for the record). Back then I think people would even be folding AK without hesitation.

It's such a different game today. To watch its evolution has been really interesting. Plays today were unthinkable in the past.

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02-19-2018 , 01:01 AM

#18

lolposting2016

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2016 Posts: 2,149

In before results
Utg had 88/ utg +1 had jj
Op folds
Aaq
Flop

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