Is this a correct play by icm?

I am 20bb effective - position 6/10
I def Kc8d vs a relativeley tight opp (BB VS EP 5max) and he has me covered.
Flop comes Kd 2c Qc - He cbets 1/5, I check-raise 3x, he Calls
Turn comes Qd - I lead for 1/3, he Calls (Im not blocking draws so I decide to continue to charge him in case he's drawing)
River comes 2d (completes backdoor FD) - I check, he Moves in...

Solver says its basicly 50/50 between call or fold, I dont have ICMizer so didnt do any calculations on the icm part. If i fold i still have 10bigs left, so is this a fold...?

https://postimg.cc/5YsCQVg1

I would just x/c the flop and plan on calling down, and check the turn as played. The king-high flop is good for the raiser's range. He can have AA/KK/QQ/KQ/KJ/KT/K9. You do not really want to stack off.

Yeah, check/call flop is much better, I think. I probably just give up when a tight player calls my check-raise, or at least I don't lead the turn when a terrible card for me hits.

How much was the PFR and how much is the pot? Without the actual info on the raise it's hard to gauge how much money you've put in already. I'm making my best guess that it's a minraise or close pre, 1BB on flop C/R to 3.5BB, 4BB on turn?

I might even fold pre; even with the immediate pot odds, you're getting into a pot with a guy you know is tight and is raising in EP, and you have an easily dominated hand. The reverse implied odds are big here unless you hit pretty much exactly K8x vs. his AK or 88x vs. an overpair who doesn't believe you have it.

In general, I don't like to build pots OOP with mediocre hands, but especially so when it's an ICM-relevant situation where I could bust.

Check call flop and induce some bluff lines. When you raise flop, his range is really narrow. Going to be a lot of the better Kx and qx that peels.

Btw fold pre? Huh. Can you fold K8o from the bb at a 5handed table? Seems like a super nitty fold unless the open is like 3-4x which even then I’m prolly still calling 3x.

Again, this is specific to ICM here (I'm guessing we're one or two away from the final table) and not trying to put ourselves in situations where we can bust with a mediocre holding with pay jumps coming soon.

It’s not absolutely necessary but I think in these spots (final table bubble) it’s really useful to know exactly how short the short stacks are. If the lowest stack is at 15 or 10bbs it’s different than if two guys have like 4bbs. There’s usually a substantial pay jump once the FT is reached.

We definitely should know how many bbs the open raiser has in order to range him.

Not to pile on but the flop CR is a blunder. His cbet is so small that your raise isn’t even that substantial. He’s going to continue with all queens, draws, etc. and you’re not going to like very many turns here. Just play it passively and keep his bluffs in. By the river I think it’s a fold against the player you described. Even though I’m not putting him on a better king, which I think he’d just check behind if he’s as tight as you think.

Yeah, agreed. Actual stack sizes all around would help a lot. Certainly relevant to what I was saying earlier as to whether I'd play this hand at all. (Generally I would; the reasons I wouldn't are more specific to the final table bubble, not trying to set myself up to bust, if it's more profitable to let this go and attack other stacks, things like that.)