200/400/50 (Level 6)
Hero: ~$40K (starting stack of $50K)
Villain 1: ~50K, older tight player who said he won a free seat as part of a casino (not poker room) random drawing
Villain 2: ~$55K, middle-aged LAG has played a fair number of hands at a tight table

Hero in early position raises to $1,000 with 99
Villain 2 re-raises to $2,500
Villain 1 calls in late position.
Hero calls.

Flop: 952

Hero checks
Villain 2 bets $4,000
Villain 1 re-raises to $10,000
Hero ???

There is 8600 in the middle going to the flop, so it is 10k to get 32600. You've got to have more equity than 30 per cent in this spot. I'm likely to call here with the intention of getting it in on any nonspade turn. I'm calling because I want v2 in the pot; his hand looks a lot like an overpair, potentially with a spade in it. If the pot is three ways on the turn after a spade has hit, it should be an easy direct-odds calculation to see what to do.

Frustrating spot, though. Top set is usually easier to play than this.

. . . does not fold! I take a deep breath and decide if I want to keep V2 around or not. Given your description of V1, he likely has an overpair 10-10 to QQ range or maybe a lower set. If you now raise to 18K-20K, V2 is not staying in the hand with anything less than a made hand (flush or lower set). If you call the 10K, V2 may stay in with a flush draw as he has a good price calling $6K into over 30K.

Personally, I think I raise to 19,500 and hope V1 shoves.

Pairs and SCs are in V1s range. There are six set combos. If v1 is capable of calling with some suited ace there pre (let's say aqs ajs a5s) or kqs qjs kts jts kjs t8s 87s 76s then made flushes are about twice as likely as undersets.

I wager..

(calculating)...

...all of the moneys..

You crush everything except a flush which you are still ~35% against that. There is already ~23k in the pot, and you have to risk ~37k more.. Your worst case is a pot odd scenario is 1.4:1 (as a 1.9:1 equity dog). But that's your worst case scenario, and in this tournament you might even get non-nut flushes from tight v2 amateur to fold on day 1. I think this is one of those good scenarios where you can actually get better hands to fold and worse hands to call given this spot in this tourney

Yes, but he cold called OOP pf. I would seriously discount almost all sc and suited A less than AJ/AQ. I don't think V1 has a high probability of a flush less than the nut. He is a non-poker playing rec who got a free seat from a casino, not a poker room. He has an overpair and likely a single spade to go with. I would weigh undersets higher than your analysis.

I think v1 is in late position

^^^ Correct, I mis-read it. However, he is still the same player described. I think his range is pretty snug.

You may well be right. I'm playing that spot pretty wide, especially if I think the initial raiser isn't likely to four-bet it.

Players like V1 are usually making a move like this when they have Ax with A of spade or some sort of small flush, he never reraise here with a less than a flush or a draw to the nuts. V2 should have a pair with an spade or AK with K of spade. Early stage in a tourny, 35% equity, I would fold here and wait for better spots. We cant call here, its either shove or fold. What do you think?


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unreg pre

Call is definitely best. Raise seems pretty bad, not only does it allow for some hero folds with 55 or 22 (which v1 as described could easily be capable of making), calling also saves you chips on some runouts if v1 flopped a flush.

God it's such a gross spot if you call and then v1 ships a blank turn, but I still lean toward getting it in.

I think we can rule out AA or KK because he is 3-betting these hands pre-flop the majority of the time, especially with his image/style.

There's a chance he flats pre-flop with QQ but I see that as a likely 3-bet as well.

I've narrowed his most likely flatting range to JJ, 10 10, AK suited & AQ suited -- with some lower pocket pairs included (55 maybe, 22 not likely).

Pretty gross spot, but I think shoving is best on the flop. I can be convinced otherwise here, but If you call the flop and the turn is a blank and V2 ships what will you do? If has a small made flush he might fold it.

Top set in a 3 bet pot, I think you have to go with it.

Gross spot. Folding is not out of the question.

I agree somewhat tbh. Sucks if the raiser has 55 or 52s or something though.

I'm talking about v2, who reraised pre. All AA KK etc. are in v2s range.

Any spade turn or any pair-card turn avoids this situation. That happens 37 per cent of the time. V2 also doesn't ship 100 per cent of blank turns. I agree that the decision you posit is going to be tough. I think baby flushes are unlikely to fold, but I suppose it's possible. Your line in some sense turns top set into a semi-bluff.

I'm not fond of calling 20 per cent of my stack off here, but jamming causes the overpaid to correctly fold behind me and the flush to correctly call me, if that is in fact what they hold. I don't like that outcome.

I think this is a great line to take and I would play is similarly in any tournament other than the Main Event! The structure is so deep that I do not want to get all of my chips in without the nuts in this spot. Even if I smooth call the $10K and fold on an unimproved turn, I still have over 50 bb's.

I did smooth call $10K & the other villain folded.

I did not improve on the turn and it was also not a spade.

I checked and villain 1 ships.

Hero???

My thoughts exactly. I want to see what happens on the turn before I get all of my chips in when I could very well be behind.

If Villain 1 does in fact have a baby flush (unlikely) or under set, he will slow down if another spade hits the turn. I get to control the size of the pot and have 2 chances to boat up vs. a flush (or even better, an under boat).

Given the brief but effective description of V, I fold here without too much thought. He has the nut flush and nothing else.

Ugh, I know I said call before but this is really, really tough. IRL I would need a tad more info on the details of how villain has been playing hands. On the one hand, if he's generally tight but we have evidence that he's capable of some weird plays, then I feel pretty good calling off. If he won a seat through a casino promo, he might not have much clue about hand ranges in situations like this where everyone's clearly strong, and think 22 is the nuts or whatever.

On the other hand if he's been super nitty and straightforward then I guess I lean toward a sigh/fold.

If we've been playing with him all day we should know which of these buckets he falls into. Let's decide accordingly.

Gross spot. Im not capable of the hero fold ott, but i think you'll be staring at the nuts 100% of the time.

In any other tourney, it's all-in on the flop for our hero. In the Main, it's an insta-fold on the flop. It's day 1 of the Main! There is absolutely no reason to get it all-in on day 1 unless you have the stone cold nuts. Even if you fold the best hand and would have won - you're gonna be with these guys all day, and there will be ample opportunity to get their chips later on since as described they sound like bad players...