Just a line check. I have a button raising 100% and I am in good shape #1 or #2 in chips and we are down to the final 11 and it pays out 7. Almost everyone (but BU at this table and SB is a fish) is playing tight and every one is 10+bbs except the SB. No one is shipping their stack and getting blinded down is unlikely but I am running card dead and need to put the brakes on this donk raising the button every time. I'm not really defending because I have junk 100% of the time for God knows how long.

I'm think I show up with Kx here sometimes (Kxs, KT, KJo) plus small pairs like 44 without 3betting preflop. So really this was about shutting down the button from blind stealing every time but pretty reckless. Just curious. Good, bad, meh?

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem $600.00(BB)
HERO ($20264.00) [VPIP: 28.1% | PFR: 16.8% | AGG: 31% | 3-Bet: 7.1% | Hands: 19041]
HJ ($17119.00) [VPIP: 27% | PFR: 23.6% | AGG: 20.6% | 3-Bet: 12% | Hands: 89]
CO ($6940.00) [VPIP: 26.7% | PFR: 15.8% | AGG: 11.9% | 3-Bet: 2.9% | Hands: 101]
BTN ($16731.00) [VPIP: 30.8% | PFR: 21.2% | AGG: 36.4% | 3-Bet: 11.8% | Hands: 52]
SB ($3253.00) [VPIP: 35.7% | PFR: 14.3% | AGG: 21.4% | 3-Bet: 7.7% | Hands: 28]

Dealt to Hero: 3 7

HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Raises To $1275, SB Folds, HERO Calls $600

Hero SPR on Flop: [5.03 effective]
Flop ($3075.00): J K 4
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $1538 (Rem. Stack: 13918.00), HERO Calls $1538 (Rem. Stack: 17451.00)

Turn ($6151.00): J K 4 K
HERO Checks, BTN Bets $3076 (Rem. Stack: 10842.00), HERO Raises To $17451 (allin), BTN Folds


HERO wins: $12303.00

Side note. I showed so I could jam and have a chance of getting called down the road. Villain called me a douchebag.

Well, the only street not completely butchered is probably pre.
Flop+Turn are atrocious, you have over 30bbs. And the idea to "put the breaks" on the BU w 73s is quite...yeah.

This is gonna make him wanna steal more, not less

Yeah. I didn’t consider what cards I held. It was more about knowing he can’t possibly have it everytime with him raising the BU 100% of the time. I wanted to put him in a spot where if I get aggressive he can’t know where he is. I could be bluffing or I could have the nuts.

I wasn’t playing maniacal at all. It actually worked. I had shoved a hand not too long before that when I riveted a FH on a 4 flush board.

No one or maybe few people will agree with me but I think there comes times in a tournament where the cards don’t matter. If you pick up on a tendency you let the play exploit it not the cards. If you want to be safe you can do it with equity but anyone can win a pot with a good hand. If I make a read on a player I’m going with it.

I'd def put u on KK and snapfold...

Effective nuts. Kx, 44, whatever. I guess I should just let someone steal the BB if I’m card dead. Might be a better strategy I guess. Take my blinds please 100% of the time. I’m afraid to fight back to defend. I need good cards because poker is all about the cards.

Ok, couple of things:

1. You have no blockers and no equity whatsoever when called. None. Cards absolutely matter, being able to bluff does not imply cards don't matter. That's absurd.

2. You have 52 hands of data on this guy. Thinking that because he opened, what, 2/2 hands, he's therefore opening ATC, is absurd.

3. You have this weird fixation on metagame stuff which actually isn't very important relative to just playing solidly, and that's especially true with 30bb four players from the bubble popping in an all-or-nothing prize distribution event like a satellite.

Whats particularly absurd about this is, you've actually just killed your checkraising range in future hands because now you're getting called out always when anyone at this table has any semblance of a hand.

Yeah, sure, I guess that works if you find yourself lucky enough to be at the top of your range or at least lucky enough to be within the range of hands you're comfortable checkraising--but in other words, you've actually just made yourself dependent on catching cards in future hands. Literally the opposite of your intention.

Being able to x/r light (not recklessly with 0% equity blockerless hands, but light) is a powerful tool you've just now voluntarily removed from your arsenal.

4. You're ignoring ICM and the fact that, even IF (which it's not) this were +cEV, it actually needs to be sufficiently high +cEV such that it generates +$EV. And that at this point, there is significant ICM pressure which, to be fair, means V calls it off a lot tighter than he would earlier in the event, but that ICM pressure works both ways meaning it's a ****ing ICM disaster to lose this hand in this manner. I didn't see any mention of "ICM" in your OP--that's a pretty big omission.

This hand is the equivalent of a golfer using his driver to hit a bunker shot, then tossing his putter in a lake.

Some really silly, results-oriented stuff ITT.

I think Eggs is right if the BU is a thinking player and not just bullying OP with position.

In 52 hands, short handed, Loz could have been raised the last eight times he was bb, not just 2/2 (With only 28 hands with sb, I dont know about that read though). If this is the case, playing back at him with ATC given that board is not awful. Most position bullies stop because they decide to pick on a more predictible, weaker, opponent, not because you beat them with better cards. Sometimes you just have to out-crazy the bully.

If Lozs read was incorrect, showing the bluff was not a good move, for the reasons egg explained.

I see everyone’s point. I do. I’m not trying to be combative but this right here in quotes.

If he’s raising 100% of the time. Even if it’s only 8 hands, and I fold 100% of the time over 8 hands then he has an easy steal opportunity. Most of the other stacks can survive several orbits so this can cut in to my stack if I don’t defend.

I played the odds and the tendencies. The odds were he doesn’t have a strong hand here given his previous tendencies. He simply and rightfully is taking advantage of the easy steal.

The showing was questionable for sure. After winning that pot I had a pretty sizable chip lead. With that advantage over the entire table I can start pressuring with my stack and I’m protected by my stack size if I choose to. Any option is open to me now. I can play Table Captain or Nit.

I’ll pull a maniacal move here and there but my strategy with a 25bb+ stack is mostly Slightly LAG with a super wide BB flatting range (any 2 suited, 1,2,3 gapers, broadways, and a few random strong hands like AA AKs while 3betting TT-KK, AKo, ATs+) That’s why I have such a big gap between VPIP and RFI. It’s my BB flatting. Making a move like this and showing can entice someone to make a hero call when I have it. It’s worked enough to know that.

I give a lot of weight to the meta game. No one wants to make a hero call with their tournament life with 3-4 to go. Picking up that pot pretty much ensured my ticket. Losing ensures I lose of course. Given the situation I believed he’s gonna find the fold button.

So yeah, I just wanted to explain it as thoroughly as I could. Any more responses with criticism or disagreeing I’ll stop offering a counter too.

I do appreciate the input. Please don’t think I’m trying to argue my point.

I would tend to put less weight on metagame when playing 1) online and 2) around the bubble in a satellite tournament 3) with a #1 or 2 stack and more weight on solid play getting you a golden ticket. I don't think it was wrong or dumb but more of a "no need to take that big of a risk at that juncture given your stack" analysis.

I think Eggs negatives are spot on from a strategy perspective but view this as the clash of "poker is a game played by people" vs "a game of people played with cards."

Was it 8 hands or not? Exactly how many?

He's uncapped. And once he barrels, he's no longer stealing, he's barreling. Big difference in concentration of value in his range.


Just based on ICM, assuming players on the other table had an average of 15bb, prior to this hand you had 87% of a ticket already locked up. You already were what you sought to be.

Defending any two suited cards, at least on a full ring table with 10% antes against a minraise or close to it, isn't remotely loose, it's standard. It's also not aggressive, by definition.


Though in this particular hand, without having simmed the Nash equilibrium, I'm going to guess that with only 5 players' antes (and to boot it look like this event has a weird structure with like 7.5% antes) and with the immense ICM pressure associated with a confrontation between V and you, that {73s} is actually a turbo muck pre. But I acknowledge I may be wrong there--I'd have to see what PIO says.

Flatting AA in the BB is pretty horrible with almost no exception. You're supposed to be 3betting extremely wide such that your AA are being paid off to a greater extent due to the heightened presence of 3b/f hands--V's necessarily have to 4b or flat wider.


With stacks as they are now, you have about 93% of a ticket locked up. You've still ensured nothing while almost punting away what was merely 600bp less $EV. Your chance of winning a ticket is not even 6% greater than it was before.

you tried to pick up a penny in front of a steamroller. You got insanely lucky here.

No one has a problem calling you out with the copious Kx and boats in their range, of which V has all notwithstanding whatever combos, if any, he's using to bolster his checking range.

BTW--fold the flop. That street is the most putrid of all.

Only if you're interested in vpip'ing at the correct freq.

But...you seem to have a fighting spirit, so creating an alternate strategy may just be a thing...patience (can be an overrated) virtue.

#WhoNeedsCards #RangesSchmanges #TakeAStand

Over/Under on how many players at the table who performed a similar skill assessment that had OP as member of the majority.

Went in to my HUD replayer. Counted back to the tables changed. Counted all of villains LP actions.

7 orbits with that exact 5 seated table up to this hand with my in BB. So 100% RFI from BU all 7 orbits. As well as 3 from CO.

My stack size at the beginning of this 5 seated table was 24314 and villains was 9750.

Correct. Every cbet was half pot in every situation where I or SB called or BU called after CO RFI. Standard button pushing. No 1/3 1/4. Button push 1/2 pot flop and turn. His range should be half the deck here. He is cbetting 100% after RFI. So yes he is 100% uncapped. There’s no checking range, there’s no ranges with various bet sizings. It’s RFI cbet half pot 100%. So in all honesty I can’t narrow down his range here on any street.

Thinking back on it that’s where my confidence came from.


Yeah I’m pretty much cashing/ticketing.



My fault for not clarifying. I meant from all positions. For some reason I felt the need to explain the gap between RFI and VPIP. Irrelevant info me. Standard babbling.


I don’t know what PIO is going to say but I’d agree this is a turbo muck. This was an emotional decision here as explained above. With the other table Nitting it up this is where I decided I was taking a stand on the blind stealing. Any 2 will do. Emotion was probably fear from seeing my stack shrink and some ego to stand up to the bully.

It’s more of a villain thing with AA. If villain will double or triple barrel BU or CO vs BB (kind of like this guy) I’ll flat AA there. If another villain seems to have a lot of preflop aggression with 3bets and 4bets I’ll play standard lines with AA. Over the last 5 or 6 months I’ve become a HUD stat nerd. How villains play Post Flop will dictate my preflop lines depending on stack depth.




You definitely nailed that one. Pretty reckless and probably not necessary.

Lolololol