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0 live spot with med flush 0 live spot with med flush

12-11-2018 , 03:31 AM
Level 3, 100/300 with 300 bb ante. Table pretty passive esp to my left. Starting stack 15k I have about 13k mostly folding till now. From MP I open to 700 with 9c6c. Button and competent reg in BB call from similar stacks. Pot 2500. Flop 9x5c3c. Chk I bet 1300 fold BB calls. Pot 5100 Turn Jc BB bets 2500. I call. Pot 10100 River Kx. BB bets 2500. I call.

On turn I obv didn’t think he put me on 2 clubs, more likely a big pair or maybe AK or AQ with a club. I thought he might be on AcXx type hand, or KJ. Might have hit a set with 55 or 33 that now didn’t want to see a 4th club come on the river.

Thoughts on play and your hand reads? Thanks in advance.
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12-11-2018 , 05:06 AM
Seems fine to me. Could go all in turn or river though. River bet looks like a block bet, doesn't look like he beats your flush, else he should have bet bigger.
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12-11-2018 , 02:08 PM
Jam turn. If he has AcXx, a pr+straight draw, or some random 2 pr from the BB then he will likely call your shove. I think you played the turn and river too passively.
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12-11-2018 , 02:47 PM
Pre is meh at your stack depth. Flop is fine, probably standard, we do want to bet our hand for value and a bit of protection as a lot of non-club overcards suck if it checks through.

*EDITED*

Turn we have ~11K into a pot of 7.6K. Not having an Ac/Kc in our hand or on the board does mean villain has lots of pair+fd hands in the BB that would want to lead here, plus a reasonable amount of floats with naked Ac. I think most random 2p hands and sets would probably be c/r flop. But he will have a few Qx/Tx flushes he'd want to lead for protection, like Q4cc or Q8cc. So I think his leading range is mostly limited to those Qx/Tx made flushes, some weird turned 2p hands with a J in them (and we block the most obvious candidate J9) a few random Jx hands and strong flush draw hands.

If we jam turn here, we do properly deny equity to those hands to draw out on us, and we can get called by worse some percentage of the time. So I think a jam could be ok, but it does seem close because he can have all of the better flushes and it's possible even some of the nut/second-nut flushes lead turn as well.

As played I think we generally just call river in a $200 buy-in tournament, villain will have all of the flushes they're going to be betting for value and probably not a lot of worse hands. Maybe QT sometimes, maybe a few random 2p hands, maybe the occasional Kcxx that somehow got here. I'm just not sure that if we raise many of those hands call. If you think villain has hero tendencies and might try to call with stuff as worse as a pair + club blocker, then it might be close. But not so much in a $200 tournament tbh.

Last edited by jpgiro; 12-11-2018 at 03:01 PM.
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12-11-2018 , 08:34 PM
Shove turn. What's your plan on the river if he shoves?
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12-11-2018 , 08:43 PM
Obv an extremely loose open. Would prefer to start opening this hand from CO vs tight or bad BTN & Blinds, otherwise only opening from BTN or SB w/ this hand.

Guess call river AP because 4-to-a-flush whiffed so fewer worse hands will pay you off (if you jam turn V still has NFD & NFD+Pair combos in his calling range), plus we can possibly rep some semi-bluffs w/ a turn raise or jam so I just feel V may call a turn raise lighter and wider than a river raise.

Feel kind of gross to not raise post at any point w/ a flush, so I think def raise or jam turn. Just roughly estimating, if V defends BB extremely wide he can have close to a 2:1 advantage in terms of better flushes in his range vs worse flushes, but add in potential sets, 2pr, and semibluffs surely we're at least decently ahead OTT.
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12-12-2018 , 02:44 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jl121
Feel kind of gross to not raise post at any point w/ a flush, so I think def raise or jam turn. Just roughly estimating, if V defends BB extremely wide he can have close to a 2:1 advantage in terms of better flushes in his range vs worse flushes, but add in potential sets, 2pr, and semibluffs surely we're at least decently ahead OTT.
I'm not convinced most of BB's 2 pair hands and sets smooth call flop. Maybe 99 does sometimes but we block that specific hand. Many of BB's strong 2 pair hands wouldn't mind raising to try to stack flush draws, overpairs or even 9x. It's also unlikely the turn really helps villain as he shouldn't have many Jx here unless it's Jx with a big club specifically, like KcJx or QcJx and that implies he's willing to float those hands on the flop.

There's also some merit to the idea that villain might actually check Acxx on the turn as that hand now has showdown value against our shutdowns and can possibly call a second barrel. So that leads me to think villain's turn leading range here could even be more polarized to the weakest flush draws in his range (maybe combo draw stuff like Tc8x) and a good chunk of his flushes, along with the occasional trapped set or random two pair.

Now I think there's probably enough worse hands villain calls for value where we can jam (especially at our stack depth) but I still think it's pretty close and if someone argued that flat is better here I wouldn't be shocked.
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12-12-2018 , 10:05 AM
Call turn is fine, if he wants to build the pot for you OOP then let him
River depends on how you construct this particular V bet/call range. I’d jam against stations, flat against nits. If in doubt, flat.
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12-12-2018 , 10:12 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jonestown
...
On turn I obv didn’t think he put me on 2 clubs, more likely a big pair or maybe AK or AQ with a club.
If that is your read then shoving turn will fit right in and get you some calls where villain is drawing dead.
Quote:
I thought he might be on AcXx type hand, or KJ. Might have hit a set with 55 or 33 that now didn’t want to see a 4th club come on the river.

Thoughts on play and your hand reads? Thanks in advance.
If he has AX for a flush draw your best bet is to shove turn. Unless you think he will fire a 3rd time with that type of hand. I would doubt it because him having the nut flush draw means that you can't. Similarly if he has a set, make him pay before he sees the final card. Yes, he will likely call a river bet but you are probably not going to jam the river if he checks. And by shoving the turn you make your life easier on the 18 cards on the river that look like they complete the flush/boat.

I can't tell you how many times I have passively played the turn in position on this type of board, only to have villain fold to my river bet.

As played his bet looks like a blocking bet. I think it is also unlikely that he calls a raise with a worse hand. However, if you min raise that would be kind of amusing. Villain would be getting such amazing odds he might call. I will say that when I have done this (once or twice) I get shoved on and then either have to fold or lose to the nuts...
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12-13-2018 , 11:40 PM
Really appreciate the feedback and analysis. Was confused at the time because his turn lead could have meant a few different things.

Villian showed Tc8c to win. I mucked and nodded when he asked if I had a big pair. gg
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12-14-2018 , 10:15 AM
Don't think could bear to let him get away with the river sizing as played. Going for the click-backish value own.
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