Hero 50yo WG reg started FT with 125k up to 230k after active first orbit.

V 30yo AG reg 400k CL much recent history in these events, TAG, understands ranges, range advantage, reads well, capable of applying pressure with air, much respect.

3k 6k 500 ante 10 handed top 7 paid from $4100 7th to $24000 1st. Top heavy and worth going for big payday.

Earlier in mtt we gii I have trips and he has 66 on 655 flop, standard cooler but I was super deep and recovered

On first hand FT I minraise button K8o flop TT7 cbet 1/3 he calls turn 2 chk chk river T he leads 20k I call K high he shows 96.

OTTH

Hero (230k, chip average 190k) I raise 12500 with KJo in HJ, V (400k) flats button, others fold

Flop J98r

What is the best plan / GTO strat for this hand against an opponent very capable of pushing T9 QJ JT as hard as 88 99 QT 89s J9s ?

imo V has significant range advantage on this flop, yet I hold TPKk. I could cc line but it gets awkward if V actually has something TPTK or better. We’re not deep enough to cc three streets.

OS can I get your input on these ranges?

Your Range:

Villain Range:

i think that reasonable for V perception of my range

V seemed like he was getting sticky and ready to play back, so prob flats down to JTo+ on the o side
also tighten the s side a little - sc from 65s+, one gappers from J9s+, all JTs+, but leave out K9s-
not really sure on the Axs mix tbh, but would expect him to light 3! some considerable % down to A2s but have low float % and fold some too
all low pp setmine ofc, flatting high pp with some frequency to trap blind squeeze.
set weights based on any reasonable 3! freq

I agree with your analysis. I'd also add that he will mostly 3bet his middle pp (77-JJ).

As mentioned cc 3 streets doesn't look good. Though as he has seen you hero call K high in the past, he won't be much inclined to 3barrel you bluff.

I don't like doing the betting here either as he can call us down with his straights as well as with his draws (+pair) and we won't know where we're at if V puts us to the test at any moment.

For there reasons, I'd be mostly looking to cc 2 streets here. We should also be looking to tightening our opening range given our mutual positions on the table.

I think I like bet flop for equity denial more than I like check flop for pot control. I'd rather execute a plan for this hand earlier than later.

Agreed. The only thing that we have going for us in this hand is the initiative of having RFI.

No position, no chip lead, & a debatable range advantage (we have all pairs & sets but villain has all 10x combos and some 2-pair combos).

Why make it cheap for villain to float/draw, where we face uncertainty on future streets OOP with a super wet board?

I'm betting 2/3 pot here and setting up a turn over-shove on any blank.

Anyone like a c/r flop here? We should be checking a lot of our range here (maybe @Eggs can help out with exactly what %) including a number of strong hands (probably sets and straights). With our exact holding, we have incentive to put pressure on V's flop betting/continuing range because I think we're going to get owned on a lot of turns/rivers taking a more passive line. I think checking with a plan of raising is a better way to do this than leading, with the added benefit that V may check behind and then we can probably comfortably call 1 or 2 streets on decent runouts.

Thoughts?

Meh. I get it but with the previous history listed between hero and V, I don't think you will get a "default" reaction out of V here. Normally, we don't typically get past Level 2 thinking here. In this case as O.S. set it up, we maybe already at Level 3 or 4 and could easily FPS ourselves all the way to value-town.

OldSilver - stop poking the young'uns and drink your coffee!

LOL

No way. I’m 50 going on 30. Loving my poker and my coffee.

From you description, it seems that you believe you are behind otf, oop and need two cards to catch up.

With an above average stack, v having a bigger stack and icm, i would pot control and cc each street, looking to reasons to fold instead of calling. I like the cr but would shut it down if called.

Def checking flop...

I think your strategy should be to bet flop 1/2 pot and c/rai on most turns.

I can see a c/c flop and then the plan is to c/c turn and river? The problem is I don't think there are too many run outs that you are actually going to like.

It's a tough spot, IMO. Because if you bet flop and get raised it sucks. If you bet flop and bet turn and then get raise it also sucks.

.

If we like our blockers here, dont mind betting, he has less AJ,JT,QJ,J9,J8 and 88+ 3b some freq.

Alot of the time we are getting snap folds to range bet or half pot as he just has Ax, small connectors or small to med pp alot of the time, if he raises can peel one at least at 38bb, he can have some worse jacks or check downs even.. with these positions we are deceptively high in our range imo with other factors considered. Usually if I can just take the pot down with out much effort il give it a go. If we x turn and he bets turn its still interesting.

If there are some icm factors and we think we have a huge skill advantage based on stacks positions and players etc where checking for pot control and folding bad run outs maybe randomizing it 50% of the time is usually fine too.

Big fan of flop x