My buddy was in this spot this weekend and we were arguing strategy. 7500 guarantee, 150 buy in, 8 handed FT, 6 get paid. 1.3 mil in play. 2500 overlay.
At eight handed, they go on break and my buddy is coming back short stacked in bb with blinds and antes at 8k, 4K, 8k. Chip distribution is approximately:
Don't remember exact payouts but second was 1800 and last was 410. Chipleader says he would take second place money while in break but a deal does not get done, despite most being interested.
First hand back from break, folds to seat 6 (weak tight) who limps, 7 shoves and 8 tank calls. Pretty obvious that seat 6 will fold. In bb you have j9 soooted. What do you do?
Seat 7 wins hand and cripples 8. 4 hands later, (seat 2 has 20ish and seat 6 has lost two small pots to chip leader in blinds and seat six has 40k). Seat 8 shoves, seat one has AA, CL is bb. What do you do? Small blind completed and cl raised sb out.
My argument to my buddy was that when he decided to fold his bb and seat 8 got crippled, he should have folded everything until his next bb and make seat 6 and 8 play their blinds first and limp into the money. It should either be call call or fold fold but not fold call. He thinks I am being results oriented.
He laid down his bb, called with the AA and got knocked out by chip leader with seat 8. Seat 4 folded preflop when cl raised but claimed he would have played if the two short stacks were not both all in and would have been rivered by the cl.
OP, just to confirm is this a short deck mtt with 2 3 4 5 removed?
What are the hand rankings? Does trips beat straight, or does straight beat trips? It makes a significant different in the relative strength of J9s JTs AA etc.
There is likely to be a trivial difference between 8th and 7th in prizemoney and all the $ are up top, so I'd be more concerned with the chance to triple up. The question is whether this is an appropriate cEV spot.
It's fairly line ball I'd say. Could make an argument either way. J9s is (I believe) a reasonable hand, but not quite in the same league as a powerhouse JT - which is roughly equal to AA in short deck. Also, the 'suited' part has less value in short deck than full deck - flushes are rare (and beat a full house).
This is on the bubble, which is a substantial part of the prize pool. Two players are allin, and if the shorter stack loses, you cash. If the bigger stack loses, you are no longer the shortest stack. If you call allin, you have to win the hand 3-way to cash. I assume J9s would have won the hand, but this is an easy fold.
Also, hands like this may play relatively well compared to high card hands in this game, but it is easy to get decent looking hands. I can't find short deck hand rankings anywhere though. However, this is clearly not a premium hand, so don't want to gamble with it in that situation.
Yes, 2-5 removed. Flush beats full house but trips do not beat straight. Can still wheel with an A-9. And a bb ante with normal blinds. It's comical - last month with a 10k guarantee there were 3 tournaments with 5k overlays and one with 6k. Lowered guarantee to 7500 this month. They extended late reg to 4 hours, so you can buy in with 15-20 players left. The play has been awful (yet I am a rail bird for the final table).
Yes j9 would have won first hand. I am not that critical of this fold given the action (although he claims j ten is better than aces) just the call with AA later after losing 20k of 35k in the blinds.
Unless I misread it's not the bubble per se as it's 8 people left with 6 places paid.
I don't really see the point of folding the nuts pre in that situation, as it's not a situation where there are great odds for the bubble to burst in this hand, or even in the couple next ones.
Basically when 8 shoves, if you fold, it's because you hope that CL (that will call for sure) will get lucky to knock out seat 8 (who has a better than average hand since he shoved). It's more likely that seat 8 doubles up.
And then, if it happens, you hope that in the next couple hands, another short stack will be knocked out.
That's a lot of assumptions. Then if you consider the payout, 6th is 410 vs 1800 for second and probably more than 2500 for first. I find it extremely weak in that spot to fold for a maybe 6th spot, instead of taking a shot for top 2 (with the nuts).
Has the situation been slightly different, like 7 players left and the big blind extremely short (all in blind for exemple), then if there was a shove covering you before you act, you might not want to call to let the bubble burst. Even here I'm not sure. In long deck I think it would still be a call with that prices distribution. In short deck, AA has less equity so this might be debatable, but at the same time the BB would have more equity vs the initial shove also.
For the J9s it sounds like a clear call, even more in short deck. Folding doesnt make much sense, as the bubble won't burst anyway after the hand and he the short stack. On this I'm on board with you, if he folded J9s, he should fold the AA if he applied the same (bad) logic. But two wrongs doesnt make a right. Folding AA seems pretty terrible, unless he desperately needs the 400$ (if so he probably shouldnt play 150$ shortdeck tourneys)
I don't think anyone said J9s is even close to the nuts. My message (besides the last paragraph) is about the AA hand.
For J9s, you need to pay 15 to win 98. I don't think there is any combination of hands seats 7 and 8 can hold that puts us under 15% in equity. Actually if you put seat 7 on AQo+, AJ+, TT+, JTs and seat 8 on AK/QQ (don't think he would tank much with KK but that barely changes the result), J9s is over 30% in equity (because it is short deck J9s as a much better equity, in long deck we would have around 23% vs these ranges)
Since we are the shortest stack by a good margin, and that folding doesnt offer us a chance to make the money immediately (no improved $ev by folding) that's a call.
Yeah sorry brain fart by quick maths, but what you forget is the BB ante, so we have only 19 behind.
So we have 19 to pay to get 8 (limper) + 27 (eff stack) + 27 + 8 (our bb) +8 (ante) = 78
We need then 19% equity at least which I think is always the case, whichever hands they hold. That makes it a very easy call
If I had folded the bb, which i doubt, I would have not looked at my cards until my next bb. While it may not have worked, watching the 2 & 3 stacks go at it without considering the icm issue convinced me he should have hung onto his chips and not play AA.
