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Mid-High Stakes MTT Discussion and analysis of mid-high stakes MTT strategy

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Old 07-16-2018, 04:07 PM   #1
HawkesDave
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$130 Multi-Day (level 10ish) Flop Decision

800/1600 w/1600 bb ante. Level 10 I think?

Hero has aggressive preflop image w/RFI and 3bs and pretty agro post. Not playing loose by any means, though. Stack size is about 51bbs (83k). Just lost a bluff very recently for about 14bbs when I had no SDV and showed KQo.

V in question has a large stack, around 90bbs (140-150k). Covers the whole table. Unknown how he plays as he's pretty new to the table. Older guy, probably mid 60s.

Other players involved have stacks in the 20-35bbs range.

9 handed

Hero raises UTG with KK to ~2.2x
UTG+2 flats, MP1 flats, V flats in MP2, folds around.

Flop 18,000
Q98

We're first to act. Hero? (awful flop, yes, I know)
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Old 07-16-2018, 04:28 PM   #2
Breadfish666
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Re: $130 Multi-Day (level 10ish) Flop Decision

I’d raise a little bigger pre from utg, maybe 2.5x all the way up to 3 maybe even 4x. Of course this depends on the table and what the standard raise has been/how many people have been seeing the flop. Need to know stacks/reads on mp1 and utg2.

I’m still betting on this flop 9-10k. Hoping to take it down here charging AQ, pairs with gutters, and flushes. I still think you can get value on this flop and depending on villain try to get to showdown.
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Old 07-16-2018, 04:33 PM   #3
HawkesDave
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Re: $130 Multi-Day (level 10ish) Flop Decision

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Other players involved have stacks in the 20-35bbs range.
The players were mostly at average or below average stack. Lots of stacks were getting pretty short at this juncture of tournament. A bet on the flop is probably getting shoved on by UTG+2 and MP1. I don't really have reads on them besides them being fairly passive post. Probably overfolding more than overcalling.

I've actually been considering introducing a limp/shove range in these spots in these lower buy-in tournaments, since the players are so terrible/oblivious I don't think they'd realize I'm only doing it with KK+ and in later levels. No reason to balance it.
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Old 07-16-2018, 04:46 PM   #4
Breadfish666
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Re: $130 Multi-Day (level 10ish) Flop Decision

I feel UTG 2 has a strong range here but I’d be fine getting it in with KK then. AA has to be raising and AK he might raise but prob not if passive. We’re happy to get it in against AQ here as well which is definitely calling your UTG raise as a passive. If you get shoved on by a set, oh well. KK is still way too strong here to just give up IMO.

The limp shove range is great with aggressive players left behind to act. You get pegged if you’re up against passives and everyone gets in for a free flop though.
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Old 07-16-2018, 05:43 PM   #5
Beachman42
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Re: $130 Multi-Day (level 10ish) Flop Decision

With so many callers, I'd bet 12-15K and feel pretty good if that takes it down. No reason to look for balance if there are calling stations. If you get a shove behind, beat them into the pot. Never, ever checking or folding this flop.
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Old 07-17-2018, 10:40 AM   #6
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Re: $130 Multi-Day (level 10ish) Flop Decision

I thought the same thing at the time, and bet 11k, and got one caller. The runout is irrelevant but I ended up losing a bit more chips on a check/call on the river.

As I look back though, and discussed it with a good friend who is a crusher: while a bet may be worthwhile just for the sake of the dead money available, this is such an incredibly bad flop for my exact holding against 3 other players as it smashes their calling ranges. Additionally, when I do bet the flop, I'm probably 30-35%, at best, against one person's overall continuing range, much less if I get two callers. It ends up bloating the pot on the flop with a medicore hand.

The problem with checking though, is that there's so many cards on the turn that are bad for your hand at this point if it checks through. His response was to ask me if I felt I had an edge on the table, and I definitely did. He said simply, to find a better spot. I'm finding myself inclined to agree.

I tried to play around with giving some continuing ranges to a V in PIOSolver and whatnot and it basically had me checking this flop almost 100% of the time.
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Old 07-17-2018, 10:58 AM   #7
Breadfish666
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Re: $130 Multi-Day (level 10ish) Flop Decision

Thatís great info. However, Iím also inclined to believe that sometimes in tournaments you wonít get better spots and you may have to play this exact spot to the best of your ability. This may be your best spot.

Youíre not always going to win flips and if you arenít getting it in with the worst hand every once in a while youíre probably over folding.

Iíve tried waiting for spots many times as a tighter player and then end up blinding off and having to shove rags.
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Old 07-17-2018, 11:12 AM   #8
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Re: $130 Multi-Day (level 10ish) Flop Decision

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Iíve tried waiting for spots many times as a tighter player and then end up blinding off and having to shove rags.
I had a very healthy stack and I'm not really tight. Just felt like a tough spot to damage my stack.
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Old 07-17-2018, 12:29 PM   #9
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Re: $130 Multi-Day (level 10ish) Flop Decision

I think it's an unfortunate turn of events. First going 4-way to the flop, then getting a flop which smashes the calling ranges of all players involved. I don't think it's appropriate to still treat KK as a premium hand here. I'm not too concerned with getting outplayed on this flop...it's just a bad spot to be in oop in a pot that is already large. Do we really think a bet is getting through here? And if it doesn't, then what? Are we calling a 30BB shove? What is Villain bets...are we taking a turn in a massive pot oop against chip leader? A check will give you back some positional and informational advantage, which you need in this hand.

It's interesting that many people see this as an automatic bet, whereas I am seeing this as a pretty clear check. It's great to see differing perspectives on the same hand though because it allows you to think in different ways, which makes you more well-rounded.

Great post!
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Old 07-17-2018, 01:22 PM   #10
Black Aces 518
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Re: $130 Multi-Day (level 10ish) Flop Decision

I don't mind a check in case it goes bonkers behind, but I think some people are dramatically overrating how often KK is beat here. QQ almost always 3bets. 99/88 may 3bet, but certainly those hands are a factor. The callers probably rarely have JTo or 98o, but may have JTs/98s.

It's a $130 tourney, we have a loose image, and the raise was 2.2x. Their ranges are pretty wide and KK is still ahead of lots of it.
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Old 07-18-2018, 10:18 AM   #11
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Re: $130 Multi-Day (level 10ish) Flop Decision

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Originally Posted by Black Aces 518 View Post
The callers probably rarely have JTo or 98o, but may have JTs/98s.

Their ranges are pretty wide
In a $130 donkament you think people are looking down at JT and torturing themselves over whether or not its suited? Also the 2 sentences you posted seem contradictory, am I misunderstanding your meaning?
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Old 07-18-2018, 10:51 AM   #12
Black Aces 518
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Re: $130 Multi-Day (level 10ish) Flop Decision

I do think that in early and mid position, people are more likely to play JTs than JTo to a pretty large degree, even in a $130 live tourney. If we had CO, BTN or blinds in the pot, JTo is more likely.

That said, the wider we make their range, it will add a few hands that beat us like JTo and 98o, but also add lots of hands that we still have crushed.

I would say something like JJ-22, AQs-A2s, AQo-A9o, KQs-76s, KJs-T8s, KTs, K9s, KQo-JTo, KJo-QTo would be a reasonable jump off point, with the first caller or two maybe a bit tighter.

I ran KK against 3 ranges that were right around that on this flop and the KK has 36% equity, which is a pretty sizable edge in a 4-way pot that we shouldn't just be abandoning.
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Old 07-18-2018, 01:40 PM   #13
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Re: $130 Multi-Day (level 10ish) Flop Decision

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Originally Posted by Black Aces 518 View Post
I do think that in early and mid position, people are more likely to play JTs than JTo to a pretty large degree, even in a $130 live tourney. If we had CO, BTN or blinds in the pot, JTo is more likely.

That said, the wider we make their range, it will add a few hands that beat us like JTo and 98o, but also add lots of hands that we still have crushed.

I would say something like JJ-22, AQs-A2s, AQo-A9o, KQs-76s, KJs-T8s, KTs, K9s, KQo-JTo, KJo-QTo would be a reasonable jump off point, with the first caller or two maybe a bit tighter.

I ran KK against 3 ranges that were right around that on this flop and the KK has 36% equity, which is a pretty sizable edge in a 4-way pot that we shouldn't just be abandoning.
I don’t doubt that edge to be the case vs their preflop ranges, and those ranges are fine, but what makes me hesitate on whether to bet or check is that their continuing ranges to my bet would have me crushed, particularly if I get two callers. I’m in a catch-22 here because I want to bet the flop larger to eliminate the continuing multi-way action, but that’s just an absolutely terrible flop for the KK I held. Once I bet and get a caller, or even two, we have to completely shut down OOP which basically means our flop bet was actually an RIO situation.

The flipside is that it checks through and so many turn cards now give us a x/f situation.

I’m leaning check flop but I’m still seeing the merits in betting the flop as well. It’s a tough line to walk.
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Old 07-18-2018, 01:47 PM   #14
Black Aces 518
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Re: $130 Multi-Day (level 10ish) Flop Decision

I think the flop is mediocre, not "absolutely terrible".

Giving a single caller a continue range of JJ-88, AQ, KQ, QJ, QT, JTs, J9s, T9s, 89s, A9, A8s, KcJc, AcJc - Ac6c, we have 63% equity. That is extremely far from being "crushed" by their continuing range. And any extra calls that we get would be stuff like AJ or AT or stubborn 77 that "puts us on AK" which would just increase our equity.
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Old 07-18-2018, 02:25 PM   #15
HawkesDave
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Re: $130 Multi-Day (level 10ish) Flop Decision

I think that range is way too wide. I donít think anyone is floating here without a pretty strong hand if I cbet into 4 people on that flop OOP.
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Old 07-18-2018, 02:50 PM   #16
Black Aces 518
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Re: $130 Multi-Day (level 10ish) Flop Decision

Every hand that I had continuing was either a straight, a set, 2 pair, the nut flush draw, a gutshot + flush draw, top pair, pair with an ace kicker, or pair and a gutshot. I don't think many of those hands are usually folding to a single reasonably sized bet.

Tightening the range to JJ-88, nut flush draw, KcJc, all the queens, JTs and 98s, we still have 61% equity. Take JJ and TT out (though I really doubt people are folding them to a single bet here) and we still have 58%. Surely no one is folding any of those hands, right?
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Old 07-18-2018, 03:30 PM   #17
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Re: $130 Multi-Day (level 10ish) Flop Decision

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Originally Posted by HawkesDave View Post
Once I bet and get a caller, or even two, we have to completely shut down OOP which basically means our flop bet was actually an RIO situation.
Not seeing how a call or two requires us to shut down and c/f the turn. There are a ton of turns weíre going to continue to value bet and only a few weíll check/call. Care to offer a little color on your thought process?
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Old 07-18-2018, 05:38 PM   #18
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Re: $130 Multi-Day (level 10ish) Flop Decision

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Not seeing how a call or two requires us to shut down and c/f the turn. There are a ton of turns weíre going to continue to value bet and only a few weíll check/call. Care to offer a little color on your thought process?
You want to barrel KK out of position on that board on a brick turn into callers hoping one has a pair of Queens and the other is on a club draw? That seems pretty ambitious. Should be trying to pot control.
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