19 left, everyone in the money. 30k up top. Right now we are at the $655 pay level. Villain just moved to our table a couple of hands ago. If there are 18 other players here, maybe 5 of them are credible, solid players--the rest are pretty weak and sloppy. I was chip lead with ~50 left but have lost half my stack in the past 1-2 hours getting cold-decked.

Villain has 16bb (25k bb) and makes it 50k from the Lowjack,

Hero has 24bb in the SB with 66.

What say you?

In this spot, given V raised 2bb and only left 14bb behind this is a shove or fold spot for me in the SB.

I think it is a close one. With V being in the low-jack his range should be significantly tighter than if he was button/cutoff. I'd probably lean towards a fold as a default play, but if I knew this v was opening a wider range I think shoving for 14 bb on top of his raise is the play.

I don't like flatting or 3-betting smaller in this spot.

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I really hate spots like this - generally no clear answer.

Any info on BB? Is it a BB ante or are there antes in play at all?

This is an auto-call from the BB given the price but from the SB 6-6 may be too weak.

It's either a shove or a fold. As people have said, it's close so it's almost entirely dependent on how wide we think villain is here and how often he's raise/folding.

BB is young Asian dude with a big stack. He has rollar coastered a bit and has played too many hands (opening Q2s UTG and calling it off to a short shove) but seems like he has a sense of what's going on.

Also forgot to mention we are 7 handed at this table (7,6,6 with 19 left)

I'd be more inclined to fold. BB will splash in behind us if we call or maybe squeeze. Also, V may be aware of BB's splashiness and factored it into his plan.

Too many bad branches on this decision tree.

How wide is the live population opening here 16bb eff from LJ?

Is it super tight, like 12% or so?

Hey BT,

I ran this in HRC and here are the results/outputs (using the MTT/ICM function - which I had not previously used.) It's pretty cool that they have this feature, so we can look at spots from an ICM point of view when there are > 10 players left.

I input the payouts from the Hendon Mob link you provided.

I also should say that I didn't give the Option to flat the open (only reshove/fold.)

LJ Opening Range:


SB 3Bet Shoving Range:


LJ 3Bet Calling Range:

Thanks for this boss. Now I can be at peace.

The one thing I do wonder, is that in live events are people like the opener more likely to raise to 2bb(and call a shove) with QQ+ and more likely to open shove with AK/AQ. So while this opening range might be right, the WAY they open might be weighted.

That's what I'm here for...to make the peace, foster serenity and never, ever troll.

Your question is a good one and personally I've given up trying to make these (logic-based reads) with live players b/c I've seen them do the weirdest things that completely depart from their previous "strategy."

For example, it wouldn't surprise me if this plyr only min-opens AA; KK; AK; AQ (intending to r/f AQ and tank r/f AK.) He might not even have an open-shoving range, or it could be 10-QQ, or 44-99...who knows?

Imo in close spots (given a very high degree of uncertainty with respect to reads) I don't think we give up much EV at all by just passing on these spots?

Does kinda suck when we (correctly) fold, the BB defends and it comes out 6T2...

Agreed. So does this calculation show how many BB we profit on average with a shove (+EV)?

If he's reasonably tight (~15%) then in terms of pure cEV it's prob worth ~.2bb in +EV (taking the BBs presence into account)

If risking 16bb to win .2 worth it at this stage for you? Think that's that operative question here.

I doubt ICM matters too much since you're still relatively far from the really big payjumps, right?

I probably pass, and I personally do so because I don't think I'd be confident enough in my read of the opener's range. If he's wider than that 15% I mentioned then I acknowledge jamming becomes harder and harder to justify passing up.

I believe that ICM values represent % of the (remaining) Prize Pool.

The cEV values are expressed in BBs.